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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    So the question is will Haunted House be seasonal as well, exiting at the end of December / early January?
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,157
    cloaked7 said:

    ^ Yup, me too. A seller could make about $27 off of it on eBay right now. 3 sold for for $33 w/ free ship. So minus postage and fees the net profit would be around $27-28. Pretty nice for something you got for free. And, the price is just going to keep going up. :-)

    I have 6 TC-14s on ebay for £16 ($26), and have had no bites yet. Perhaps demand is higher in the US than the UK.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^There might be more of a demand. We do have about 320 million people who live here.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited September 2012
    doriansdad said:

    So the question is will Haunted House be seasonal as well, exiting at the end of December / early January?

    Can you imagine the HH value if that were to happen? $500 overnight.

    Wouldn't it be nice though to see a mini Haunted House next October?

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    I don't see Haunted House as seasonal. Its release is just because Halloween is in 2 months and this will give people ample time to acquire one. It is also part of the Monster Fighters theme unlike the Winter Village sets that only come out during the Holidays.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    It's branded as Monster Fighters, so I imagine it will be around as long as the theme stays alive. At least I hope so. I want one but can afford to wait a bit for a sale...or at least for double points in October.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    doriansdad said:

    So the question is will Haunted House be seasonal as well, exiting at the end of December / early January?

    Not a chance. Lego knew that they had something people wanted when they upped the price to $180. I personally think it's a little derivative but I'm in the minority. I see it staying around until Christmas 2013.

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    more like Christmas 2014 minimum. or beyond if it's still selling well
  • berniebondberniebond AustriaMember Posts: 137
    dougts said:

    ^ seems steep to me, but then again I wouldn't pay the going rates on CC, MF, MS, etc. either.

    I'd say $100+ this holiday season, maybe $150-175 for 2013, then I bet people just give up on it if they don't have it by then.

    Hmm, found 3 in a toy store for 49 Euro (62$). They keep it hidden in a corner under some Bionicle Lego noone touches, and i think they would get it out for Christmas I guess.

    To buy or not to buy?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    definitely buy. you should have walked out with all 3 on the spot.
  • berniebondberniebond AustriaMember Posts: 137
    I thought they were hidden well enough for me to sleep over it one night...;-)
  • makmak Member Posts: 300
    Same way as you found them, someone else might, if you've got the funds, get them :-)
  • berniebondberniebond AustriaMember Posts: 137
    they have two 8053 too...
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    Haunted house through to 2014, minimum.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,523
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^There might be more of a demand. We do have about 320 million people who live here.

    Not just that, but a higher percentage of those will have the disposable income to spend on plastic.
  • GothamConstructionCoGothamConstructionCo Colchester UKMember Posts: 798
    CCC said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^There might be more of a demand. We do have about 320 million people who live here.

    Not just that, but a higher percentage of those will have the disposable income to spend on plastic.
    Surgery or LEGO?

    :-)

  • justmichaeljustmichael Member Posts: 12
    I've been out of my dark ages for almost a year now so I still don't know the in's and out's of when sets go EOL or when seasonal sets go away. The Winter Village sets are one of the things I'm currently keeping an eye on. I was a bit paranoid that the Bakery and Post Office wouldn't be available this year so I went ahead and bought a copy of each from ToysRUs.com during one of their recent sales.

    http://www.toysrus.com/product/index.jsp?productId=4433139&ab=TRU_Header:LEGO-Creator-Winter-Bakery-(10216):Product-Detail

    http://www.toysrus.com/product/index.jsp?productId=12345982&prodFindSrc=search
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Yeah, you kinda jumped the gun there. They WILL be back. Purchasing more than 1 will be worth it.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    @justmichael - It's never too early to purchase for personal use, only early if for resell. The EOL season tends to be from Nov-Feb, depending on the set. Popular ones might never get to the Nov. BF sale, while unpopular ones can hang around well past February at retail locations.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    That's good advice Brickdancer.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    So, wanted to get the group's opinion on the post-EOL prospects of the following:

    STAR WARS
    - Star Wars Planet sets.
    - TIE Fighter
    - Anakin's Jedi Interceptor
    - Pod Racers

    NINJAGO:
    - #9441 blade cycle,
    - #9447 bite cycle
    - #9449 ultrasonic raider
    - #9457 wrecking ball?

    SUPERHEROES:
    - superman/lex sets
    - Loki's Cosmic Cube
    - Wolverine Chopper

    FRIENDS (wave 1):
    - Butterfly Beauty Shop
    - Cafe
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 873
    TIE Fighter is a good one -- iconic ship, first one that actually looks like a TIE.

    Jedi Interceptor is all about the minifigs -- specifically Obi-Wan and Anakin. Challenge will be whether those two figs end up cheaper on BL. Their platforms for fighting are great but rest of the set is just ok.

    Until and unless another Supes or Wondy set comes out, you cannot go wrong with the Superman set. great price given the minifigs.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    My only concern with TIE Fighter is that it might do what 6212 did, stay out for 5 years.

    I agree, it is by far the best TIE Fighter TLG has done, it really is pretty good.

    The X-Wing this time is great as well, which is why I see both staying for a long time.

    The Star Wars Planet Sets might be too obvious, kinda like the CMFs...
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    If Superman is not done in another set, then yes. Possibly Wolverine for the same reason. The Ultrasonic Raider may be a good bet considering its higher price point, but we all will have a much better idea about whether or not Ninjago will stay strong by the time the Raider nears EOL.

    All in all, unless you are getting these other sets at 50%, I don't see the point. There are much better plays out there so why risk tying up your money in them?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    ^ true. mainly to the point of diversifying. All the 1xxxx sets are fairly obvious for the most part, and I have lots of those. mostly was looking for things that could provide good turnaround profits in the 12 month range. I certainly won't buy any of these anywhere near RRP, but was looking for items to keep on my radar that may be under-appreciated a bit.
  • leemcgleemcg Member Posts: 607
    ^^^^ ^Those of you in the US won't have seen this but in the UK, the largest retailer has been selling Superman and Lex off for 75% discount - if that's not a sign (hint at least) of EOL I don't know what is!

    When I say 'has been' I mean they did it yesterday and probably sold them all.

    Lee

  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,383
    leemcg said:

    ^^^^ ^Those of you in the US won't have seen this but in the UK, the largest retailer has been selling Superman and Lex off for 75% discount - if that's not a sign (hint at least) of EOL I don't know what is!

    When I say 'has been' I mean they did it yesterday and probably sold them all.

    Lee

    I'd say its definitely not a sign of EOL (by TLG). It's just high st retailers clearing B&M stock to make way for new lines. Still normal price on Tesco online.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    I think all of the $20 Super Heroes sets have great potential. Both the figs and pieces are great. The Lex Luthor set is one of my favorites of the last year.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,157
    roxio said:

    leemcg said:

    ^^^^ ^Those of you in the US won't have seen this but in the UK, the largest retailer has been selling Superman and Lex off for 75% discount - if that's not a sign (hint at least) of EOL I don't know what is!

    When I say 'has been' I mean they did it yesterday and probably sold them all.

    Lee

    I'd say its definitely not a sign of EOL (by TLG). It's just high st retailers clearing B&M stock to make way for new lines. Still normal price on Tesco online.
    Asda discounted the "Droid Escape" set to about 40% of retail price 2 months after it had released. Discounting is not a sure fire sign of EOL, more likely massive overstocking.
  • allmybricksallmybricks Member Posts: 156
    853373 Kingdom's Chess set isn't currently appearing in US [email protected] Page not found. Any thoughts on that? Think it's gone that quickly?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,712
    allmybricks said:

    853373 Kingdom's Chess set isn't currently appearing in US [email protected] Page not found. Any thoughts on that? Think it's gone that quickly?

    Interesting.. guessing it is a glitch, but maybe they just are not selling well (what with the flimsy plastic base and all) If it is gone I wish i would have known that before hitting the LEGO store this morning
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ Wow, you're right...

    Not only does it not come up in search, but it doesn't come up browsing either.

    If it EOLed already, it will do well...
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    Hmmm, wondering if I should pick a few up in store (if available)...

    Does this situation generally occur, where the [email protected] page isn't found and the set later comes back? I know it's happened infrequently, such as with the Imperial Flagship, but in general?

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/LEGO-Kingdoms-Chess-Set-853373 (page not found)
  • pmercikpmercik Member Posts: 55
    i think it happened with minecraft too
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    That came out just recently (chess set). I can't imagine they'd discontinue already, would they? Before Xmas?

    LFT - you think the SW Planet Series is a lock?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Wow, I was going to pick that up soon, but was waiting to see if there was a sale or a VIP points promotion.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^I believe he was saying that many will think they are a "lock", but they will probably follow suit to CMF.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    edited September 2012
    My guess is this is a minecraft style glitch.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    LFT - you think the SW Planet Series is a lock?

    I have 25 of each Series 1, just in case they take off, but I suspect they won't because it is so obvious.

    I'm not buying more unless I get them for a great price. Even these were bought May 4th to get free TC-14s (multiple orders just over $75), so in that regard I did get a good deal on them. ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Well, they make great Christmas tree decorations...lol.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I would love to see a tree decorated with them!
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    And regarding the 1st wave of Super Heroes - I "assume" they will all be available for Xmas through early December. But will they start to EOL after the 1st of the year, perhaps?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    The Kingdoms Chess set is still available in every country except for the US. There has to be some kind of glitch.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited September 2012
    ^Ah, nice research there Pitfall. I guess I probably shouldn't worry too much on missing out then. I checked with one of my local stores via phone, and they said they had at least 8 in stock; it looks like I'll still have a chance in the next few days if I change my mind.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    I'm going to check with my Lego store tomorrow. It's sort of out of the way for me though.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    prevere said:

    And regarding the 1st wave of Super Heroes - I "assume" they will all be available for Xmas through early December. But will they start to EOL after the 1st of the year, perhaps?

    They will almost definitely be available well into Christmas 2013. No EOL anytime soon.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Picked up a few of the chess sets when it came out as Christmas gifts. My daughter is really looking forward to this one. Having it EOL will make the gift that much better for her. Maybe she'll let me win a game or two. ;-)
  • jasonord69ajasonord69a UKMember Posts: 460
    Hi,

    I'm new to collecting Lego and have a few mint sealed sets that I might keep and see if their values increase.

    What is the general opinion of the following:
    10215 obi wan ucs
    8038 battle of endor
    6212 x Wing
    4841 hogwarts express
    8129 at-at
    8096 palpatines shuttle

    Many thanks in advance for your opinions!
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Welcome to the forum. I'm sure you'd find a lot of value in reading this thread as these sets have been discussed multiple times. Or if you don't want to read the thread, a "search" will yield more specific results.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited September 2012
    ^^ I can speak to a few of the sets and give a bit of a summary...
    10215 - Most seem to feel this set as being unappealing for a UCS set. My guess is that it will slowly go up in price. But, it was discounted a lot so it may take it a good while to even sell above retail.
    8038 - An anniversary set and one that is already doing well after EOL. Could be had for around $80, now selling for around double that price. Personally, I think it is a great set. Lots of playability, lots of minifigs.
    6212 - I think this set is hurt by the fact that LEGO always has a X-Wing available. And, although it is listed as a Limited Edition it was anything but. There were tons of them available and for years and years. I don't see it going up like most SW sets do.
    8096 - Personally, I think this set will do well. Mainly because it has a unique Vader figure. And, it is SW and the Emperor is a plus.
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