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Comments
I mean they could try to sell them at 150, but I would be surprised (albeit pleasantly as I have a few of them) if they will get it
http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Grand-Emporium-10211?p=10211&LangId=2057&ShipTo=US
Don't worry Amazon has over 999 left.
They may hit $150 by Christmas at this rate, the sales rank hasn't budged.
EM was probably priced right in 2009 when it came out, but it may have been underpriced for today's market, so at $120, it is inline with Marsek Train, so people will keep buying at the same speed at that price, people like parents who will open and build them, thus depleting the "MISB" stocks.
As someone else said, it is a bubble if resellers just trade them to each other, to really get the price to rise, we need people to buy at the higher prices, then crack them open and build them.
Probably just a fluke, Amazon was sold out for over a week if I recall, then restocked.
As someone else said, just because [email protected] says sold out, doesn't mean it is gone for good, even if that is what it "usually" means. If I recall, it also said sold out over brick friday as well.
Of course, if that is indeed what it means, then that set will go up in value quickly because no one was expecting it.
I was about to report that the GE was sold out again, but obviously someone beat me to it.. :-)
It has to be another error in their system, as the Fire Brigade, by all rights, should be gone before the GE....
In any case, I'll put you down in the "under" box, you may be right, we'll just have to see. As for me, I've now got 15 of them, I can afford to just toss them in the closet and forget about them for a year, so I'm really not worried about what the price gets to in 2 weeks. I figure that whatever they are worth NEXT Christmas will fund my 2013 Lego set purchases. :) As it stands, I have less than $1,000 invested in 15 copies of this set, if they rise to $200 by the end of next year, that will give me $3K to buy 2013 sets.
I'm happy with that. If it doesn't work out, oh well. Truth is, the fact that I can afford to put a thousand bucks into 15 of these and forget about them means it doesn't "have" to work out for me. To anyone that "needs" it to work out, they probably shouldn't do it.
Lego can and does change things up, how long did Helicopter & Limo stay on the market, 6 months? Market Street was short as well, was it not?
I still bet on web site error, but who knows. If they both retire, I expect GE to rise in price twice as fast as FB, if for no other reason than I think FB is being horded MUCH more than GE.
As for the Market Street and Limo.. The Limo was a Walmart exclusive and was out in Europe for a good 6-9 months before the US got it.
Market Street was too expensive (90 USD for the set it was). That is why both went out when they did.
All Modular models (and Market street was not a mod) have been out for about 3 years total run then retired.. and there is the rumor that FB will be around for another year still, this would boggle most peoples minds if they got rid of GE before the FB... but I guess anything is possible with LEGO.. Im still banking on 'Computer error' . We will know on Monday... Until then who will be keeping watch on the GE stocks on Amazon :-)
http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/05/9214237-gone-in-less-than-60-seconds-11-luxury-sports-cars-wrecked-in-expensive-pileup?chromedomain=worldnews
If at any point we all think we have an "expensive hobby", these people have us all beat hands down:
"An outing of luxury sportscar enthusiasts in Japan ended in an expensive freeway pileup — smashing a stunning eight Ferraris, a Lamborghini and two Mercedes likely worth more than $1 million together."
The funny thing is, if I worked harder on my business, I could own a Ferrari, but instead I played Lego Trains with my 6 year old son today, he ran the yellow cargo train, I ran the red passenger train, he must have crashed into my train 50 times today. We had so much fun... :)
My father didn't have that priority in life, he was a stock broker, bought brand new Cadillacs, traveled all the time, and I saw him one weekend a month. I swore to never do that to my kids. :)
So I drive a Ford, and I'm happy with that.
I know it sounds like I buy a lot of Lego, and I do, but I also sell a lot of Lego. I've sold multiple 10030 sets this year, making about $200 profit on each one. I just sold 2 AT-AT walkers last week that I bought for 25% off on BrickFriday, made another $100 there.
That is what is really funding my Lego addiction, if I wasn't doing that, I couldn't afford nearly as much.
As for EN, the Market will be huge, it's Only ever been a Lego exclusive in the uk, and at £70 is a good price, but would still be an essential buy at £100
As was previously posted, the IF and EN are instant classics and a person can't go wrong with those sets. I built the IF last week and my kids are dying to pull it down off the shelf and "play with it." It was an awesome build and a beautiful design. Same for the EN. If a person can afford to hold these sets for a year, I'm sure they will do just fine.
I suspect a lot of people are trying to get their money back, before Amazon restocks... [email protected] has them in stock, so the sales rank of this has shot up to almost 5,000, whatever that means (I do recall it being under 1,000 before Amazon sold out)
From a profit standpoint, it appears (I haven't checked myself) that the SSD has a lot of duplicate pieces in the set (compared to the DS) which makes it cheaper to produce assuming an identical piece count. I figure the greater the variety of pieces (color and shape), the more expensive a set is to produce. That said, the DS actually has about 700 more pieces for the same list price. The SSD also weighs about 2 pounds less than the DS making it cheaper to ship.
Conclusion: The SSD is much cheaper for Lego to produce and ship from a piece type, piece count, and overall weight standpoint. Even if the SSD was as popular and playable as the DS (and it's not), the DS is a much better deal for the consumer, and the consumer understands this fact and will treat it as such. TLG understands that the consumer has to be happy for them to be profitable. Consequently, TLG will have a more difficult time EOLing the DS, and it will stay on shelves...at least for the time being.
Given there's nothing similar to compete, I think the DS will be around for a while yet.
Hmm, could this REALLY be going? If it were a web site glitch, would it have changed three times over the weekend?
I think this one will be heavily discounted as well.
Anyone want to take bets on $200 by Jan 1st? :)
2012 is a LONG time for any set to be out, much less a set like this.
Isn't Joust supposed to replace it?
-Dan
I think Lego is extending the life of some high level sets to slow down the aftermarket value. Why let aftermarket sellers make money, that Lego can make themselves?
With this life extension beyond normal set life (2 years usually), it creates a logjam of active sets, a bunch of which may retire at one time, or unexpectedly in the middle of the year. GE, FB, MMV, DS, WTS are all beyond their 24-month window, some well beyond.
Strictly from a business standpoint, an effect of this is an increased # of sets floating around on the market. What impact will that have? MMV has been out there a long time, and I think that will have a big impact on its long-term value.
GE "should" have another year, FB "should" retire now, MMV "should" have retired a year ago, WTS "should" also have retired a year ago.
So go figure...
As you say, Lego may be changing its business model without telling us. That being said, there is plenty of room for money to be made, look at EM, on Amazon it is up to $145 just a few days after selling out at $90. Now in fairness, I think the problem is that the set was underpriced to begin with, Lego doesn't seem to do mid-run price increases, instead they retire a set and come out with another one.
MMV is very "cheap" considering what is in it. Look at Joust, fewer parts, more money, replacing it... It will make MMV jump in the aftermarket when it retires to about $140 pretty quickly, based on cost per brick count.
So if Lego wants to make more money, why not just raise the price of MMV to $129 now? Or a year ago for that matter?
Yes, it is weird, but normal... The sets in the store just a month ago still said 2009 Anniversary Edition, but the 4 that I've received from [email protected] since then all are as you describe, they did change the box.
Weird, since it is the last run of the set.
Again I am believing/hopeful that the GE still has another year and the FB should be gone before then... but not sure at the moment...
This year, Lego seems to have used the Black Friday sale to whittle down whatever remaining stock that it had of some of the EOL sets (EN, IF, AT-OT) and had a number of others sell out, particularly the SW sets, well before Christmas. Although Lego may have another big sale around Christmas, I would not anticipate it being as tasty as last years.
I am finding that some of the more unique City items do well, particularly City Corner if you can find any of them left around you....it's sold out and now discontinued, that bus is pretty nice! It really depends on the set however.
Also I expect some of the recent sold out Harry Potter sets to do well (last year's wave..the Burrow in particular, I think it will follow a similar pattern to Shreiking Shack). I would bet that Wal-Mart and Target will clearance any remaining HP sets after Christmas if you are lucky enough to find any.
There may be some indirect causality, though: Death Star is rumored to be discontinued (perhaps true), and those that catch the rumors hurry to buy sets. TLG notices a strong surge in demand of the set and decides upon an additional production run.