Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

madforLEGO

I think also that EN will be at least 150.00 by the end of the year. There have already been sold auctions on Ebay for 125.00 plus shipping and that was before they were sold out on Amazon. I think EN will be at 225.00 one year from now. Hopefully. The rest of the Amazon sellers also will now raise their prices since Amazon is out of stock.

I doubt it... Too many people have them AND they are not yet sold out everywhere yet (as I believe someone was referring to Target as having them).
I mean they could try to sell them at 150, but I would be surprised (albeit pleasantly as I have a few of them) if they will get it

bri4jenn

Grand Emporium is now sold out at Lego [email protected] [US].
http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Grand-Emporium-10211?p=10211&LangId=2057&ShipTo=US

Don't worry Amazon has over 999 left.

LegoFanTexas

The seller on Amazon at $116 had 9 of them 2 hours ago, they have 1 left... then you're into the $120 sellers.

They may hit $150 by Christmas at this rate, the sales rank hasn't budged.

LegoFanTexas

^-- They are 116 because Amazon sold out, the 116 is an Amazon authorized seller (or whatever they call them) and not Amazon.

Yes, I know that... However they are selling at $116, my point is just that they will keep moving at that price, it will take a much higher price I think to slow down sales.

EM was probably priced right in 2009 when it came out, but it may have been underpriced for today's market, so at $120, it is inline with Marsek Train, so people will keep buying at the same speed at that price, people like parents who will open and build them, thus depleting the "MISB" stocks.

As someone else said, it is a bubble if resellers just trade them to each other, to really get the price to rise, we need people to buy at the higher prices, then crack them open and build them.

LegoFanTexas

Grand Emporium is now sold out at Lego [email protected] [US].
http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Grand-Emporium-10211?p=10211&LangId=2057&ShipTo=US

Don't worry Amazon has over 999 left.

Wow, that went from ready to ship now to sold out, just like that.

Probably just a fluke, Amazon was sold out for over a week if I recall, then restocked.

As someone else said, just because [email protected] says sold out, doesn't mean it is gone for good, even if that is what it "usually" means. If I recall, it also said sold out over brick friday as well.

Of course, if that is indeed what it means, then that set will go up in value quickly because no one was expecting it.

prevere

Under $150. There will be sellers who got these cheap with the Black Friday sale, so selling them for $125 is immediate profit. It will hover around that price for a year. Demand has to rebuild a little since it's been widely available for 2 years+. A glut of Amazon and eBay sellers with high stock means that someone will need to flinch to keep their cashflow moving, aka $125.

madforLEGO

^-- They are 116 because Amazon sold out, the 116 is an Amazon authorized seller (or whatever they call them) and not Amazon.

Yes, I know that... However they are selling at $116, my point is just that they will keep moving at that price, it will take a much higher price I think to slow down sales.

EM was probably priced right in 2009 when it came out, but it may have been underpriced for today's market, so at $120, it is inline with Marsek Train, so people will keep buying at the same speed at that price, people like parents who will open and build them, thus depleting the "MISB" stocks.

As someone else said, it is a bubble if resellers just trade them to each other, to really get the price to rise, we need people to buy at the higher prices, then crack them open and build them.

I figured you knew, but a lot do not, was looking to head off those who would think that Amazon would raise their prices...

I was about to report that the GE was sold out again, but obviously someone beat me to it.. :-)
It has to be another error in their system, as the Fire Brigade, by all rights, should be gone before the GE....

LegoFanTexas

Under $150. There will be sellers who got these cheap with the Black Friday sale, so selling them for $125 is immediate profit. It will hover around that price for a year. Demand has to rebuild a little since it's been widely available for 2 years+. A glut of Amazon and eBay sellers with high stock means that someone will need to flinch to keep their cashflow moving, aka $125.

Perhaps, but keep in mind that Marsek Train is $120 and so $125 for EM is probably a "normal" price to the average Lego buyer now, it may well sell at "normal" rates at that price and deplete the few thousand held back pretty quickly. After all, it took Amazon, what, a week to move a thousand of them?

In any case, I'll put you down in the "under" box, you may be right, we'll just have to see. As for me, I've now got 15 of them, I can afford to just toss them in the closet and forget about them for a year, so I'm really not worried about what the price gets to in 2 weeks. I figure that whatever they are worth NEXT Christmas will fund my 2013 Lego set purchases. :) As it stands, I have less than $1,000 invested in 15 copies of this set, if they rise to $200 by the end of next year, that will give me $3K to buy 2013 sets.

I'm happy with that. If it doesn't work out, oh well. Truth is, the fact that I can afford to put a thousand bucks into 15 of these and forget about them means it doesn't "have" to work out for me. To anyone that "needs" it to work out, they probably shouldn't do it.

LegoFanTexas

I was about to report that the GE was sold out again, but obviously someone beat me to it.. :-)
It has to be another error in their system, as the Fire Brigade, by all rights, should be gone before the GE....

I bet on it being an error in the system as well, however if it isn't, then perhaps Lego is messing with us. :) Or perhaps Fire Brigade really does sell better than GE and they decided to switch them around. Or perhaps Town Hall will be a "corner" set and they didn't want two out at once, or perhaps BOTH GE and FB are going this year, since we're getting an early Town Hall, they only want 2 modulars at once, and they decided to speed up the retirement of GE.

Lego can and does change things up, how long did Helicopter & Limo stay on the market, 6 months? Market Street was short as well, was it not?

I still bet on web site error, but who knows. If they both retire, I expect GE to rise in price twice as fast as FB, if for no other reason than I think FB is being horded MUCH more than GE.

madforLEGO

I was about to report that the GE was sold out again, but obviously someone beat me to it.. :-)
It has to be another error in their system, as the Fire Brigade, by all rights, should be gone before the GE....

I bet on it being an error in the system as well, however if it isn't, then perhaps Lego is messing with us. :) Or perhaps Fire Brigade really does sell better than GE and they decided to switch them around. Or perhaps Town Hall will be a "corner" set and they didn't want two out at once, or perhaps BOTH GE and FB are going this year, since we're getting an early Town Hall, they only want 2 modulars at once, and they decided to speed up the retirement of GE.

Lego can and does change things up, how long did Helicopter & Limo stay on the market, 6 months? Market Street was short as well, was it not?

I still bet on web site error, but who knows. If they both retire, I expect GE to rise in price twice as fast as FB, if for no other reason than I think FB is being horded MUCH more than GE.

I would think if anything FB is less of a seller than GE is now.
As for the Market Street and Limo.. The Limo was a Walmart exclusive and was out in Europe for a good 6-9 months before the US got it.
Market Street was too expensive (90 USD for the set it was). That is why both went out when they did.

All Modular models (and Market street was not a mod) have been out for about 3 years total run then retired.. and there is the rumor that FB will be around for another year still, this would boggle most peoples minds if they got rid of GE before the FB... but I guess anything is possible with LEGO.. Im still banking on 'Computer error' . We will know on Monday... Until then who will be keeping watch on the GE stocks on Amazon :-)

LegoFanTexas

Just to go off-topic for a minute...

http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/05/9214237-gone-in-less-than-60-seconds-11-luxury-sports-cars-wrecked-in-expensive-pileup?chromedomain=worldnews

If at any point we all think we have an "expensive hobby", these people have us all beat hands down:

"An outing of luxury sportscar enthusiasts in Japan ended in an expensive freeway pileup — smashing a stunning eight Ferraris, a Lamborghini and two Mercedes likely worth more than $1 million together."

The funny thing is, if I worked harder on my business, I could own a Ferrari, but instead I played Lego Trains with my 6 year old son today, he ran the yellow cargo train, I ran the red passenger train, he must have crashed into my train 50 times today. We had so much fun... :)

My father didn't have that priority in life, he was a stock broker, bought brand new Cadillacs, traveled all the time, and I saw him one weekend a month. I swore to never do that to my kids. :)

So I drive a Ford, and I'm happy with that.

brickupdate

@LegoFanTexas - I wish I heard more about folks doing what you do. Such a simple act, yet it takes an extreme effort and intention in order to really be there for your family like that. Kudos to you!

LegoFanTexas

Thank you, I appreciate that. :) Really, I do...

I know it sounds like I buy a lot of Lego, and I do, but I also sell a lot of Lego. I've sold multiple 10030 sets this year, making about $200 profit on each one. I just sold 2 AT-AT walkers last week that I bought for 25% off on BrickFriday, made another $100 there.

That is what is really funding my Lego addiction, if I wasn't doing that, I couldn't afford nearly as much.

coolpix

Went to my local LEGO store today again, and they were sold out on the Emerald Night. It was amazing, considering they had about 20 of this set last week, and they barely moved on Brick Friday at 25% off, when i got mine. The manager said they are not going to get more ENs. On another note, they restocked Imperial Flagship, Tantive IV and have plenty Winter Toy Shop (I've counted about 50 on the floor alone). But Emerald Night is gone for good there. Too bad because I was keeping an eye for those on the after Xmas sale.

coolpix

Going a bit off topic... @LegoFanTexas I am glad I am not the only one that does that. I have 3 kids. Twin Boys at the age of six and a girl at the age of 4, and we do weekly trips to the LEGO store or Target to buy LEGOs to play, and we have a lot of fun. The week I bought Red Passenger train and Yellow Cargo train, we've put together a nice layout, with train stations, houses, and everything city we own, and played a lot. Today I helped them put together a few Dino sets they've got as gifts from their Grandparents. I work mostly from home (like a lot of people here, I am a Web Designer), so I get to take them and pick them up at school every day, and we play a lot together, and that's priceless.

MinifigsMe

^ it really is lovely to hear that you guys do that. It's certainly how my husband and I plan to be. We're both earning a good wage and have no grand ambitions to go higher (I have a PhD but don't want to become a professor as they work too hard!) my dad was also the same. Worked for the same company for 40 years and was happy. Was home in time for dinner and took us on day trips (to see steam trains) all the time :) we're still a v close family

As for EN, the Market will be huge, it's Only ever been a Lego exclusive in the uk, and at £70 is a good price, but would still be an essential buy at £100

Farmer_John

On another note, they restocked Imperial Flagship, Tantive IV and have plenty Winter Toy Shop (I've counted about 50 on the floor alone). But Emerald Night is gone for good there. Too bad because I was keeping an eye for those on the after Xmas sale.

I can assure you that the IF and Winter Toy Shop are gone for good too. If you can get a good deal on those, you will definitely make your money back. I wanted (and tried) to get another WTS at a reasonable price, but didn't get there in time.

As was previously posted, the IF and EN are instant classics and a person can't go wrong with those sets. I built the IF last week and my kids are dying to pull it down off the shelf and "play with it." It was an awesome build and a beautiful design. Same for the EN. If a person can afford to hold these sets for a year, I'm sure they will do just fine.

coolpix

@Farmer_John I am out of luck on the Emerald Night, because my local stores don't have it anymore, so I'll just stick to the one I have for myself, now WTS and IF are my hopes of hoarding at least two guaranteed future sellers, as I agree with you that these are instant classics. Since I already have one of each for myself, I'll try to get at least 2 of the IF and 5 WTS on the big sale as an investment. Still two weeks to go, so I'll keep my fingers crossed.

Yellowcastle

I will definitely jump on another Tantive at 50% Off. I guess I'm in the minority as I love this ship. :o)

LegoFanTexas

50% off would be great... That being said, the 4 I bought on Brick Friday worked out to under $100 each after all discounts and including tax, still pretty cheap if you consider that.

madforLEGO

Heh, Amazon sellers now have the Emerald night starting at $129.99 now with the one featured at $141.03

LegoFanTexas

I suspect that some of those sellers on Amazon who have "toys" in their name, like "Planet Fun Toys", who have thousands of feedback, have many, many, copies of this set.

LegoFanTexas

Just looked at Amazon on 10188, the price has actually come down a bit, $499 right now, was $530ish...

I suspect a lot of people are trying to get their money back, before Amazon restocks... [email protected] has them in stock, so the sales rank of this has shot up to almost 5,000, whatever that means (I do recall it being under 1,000 before Amazon sold out)

Farmer_John

I don't see the DS being EOL'd for another year. It is popular, playable, and the only other SW set of comparable size (the SSD) is...well...neither. The original plan may have been to EOL the DS and replace it with the SSD after a short simultaneous run. I have no doubt things didn't work out the way TLG thought. If you look at the sales rank of each at Amazon, you will see what I'm talking about. TLG has to have something to sell that produces revenue, and unfortunately the SSD is not even close to the DS.

From a profit standpoint, it appears (I haven't checked myself) that the SSD has a lot of duplicate pieces in the set (compared to the DS) which makes it cheaper to produce assuming an identical piece count. I figure the greater the variety of pieces (color and shape), the more expensive a set is to produce. That said, the DS actually has about 700 more pieces for the same list price. The SSD also weighs about 2 pounds less than the DS making it cheaper to ship.

Conclusion: The SSD is much cheaper for Lego to produce and ship from a piece type, piece count, and overall weight standpoint. Even if the SSD was as popular and playable as the DS (and it's not), the DS is a much better deal for the consumer, and the consumer understands this fact and will treat it as such. TLG understands that the consumer has to be happy for them to be profitable. Consequently, TLG will have a more difficult time EOLing the DS, and it will stay on shelves...at least for the time being.

Legoboy

If you look at the sales rank of each at Amazon, you will see what I'm talking about. TLG has to have something to sell that produces revenue, and unfortunately the SSD is not even close to the DS.

I won't argue any point you've made as they are all spot on.....other than the above. Reason the DS is selling so well right now is because it's rumoured to be OOP. I am confident in saying Amazon wouldn't have sold half as many otherwise - albeit still more than the SSD granted.

Given there's nothing similar to compete, I think the DS will be around for a while yet.

LegoFanTexas

GE on [email protected] has gone from Sold Out to "Call to check product availability", back to Sold Out.

Hmm, could this REALLY be going? If it were a web site glitch, would it have changed three times over the weekend?

Pacific493

I called [email protected] today and they said that they have plenty of GE in stock and there are no plans to retire it any time soon. Maybe the operator didn't know what she was talking about or the call centers aren't kept completely updated, but I wouldn't bet on it.

coolpix

@Yellowcastle I love Tantive IV too, and I'd grab a couple more for 50%, forgot to mention :-)

I think this one will be heavily discounted as well.

Blue1dot

Target online has EN, MMV, P S and IF all at their [email protected] prices, with free shipping

rocao

"Sold out" does not necessarily mean discontinued. It means they are out of stock and that a restock date is not available. This is obviously true for discontinued sets, but current production sets have been "sold out" and then become available again.

LegoFanTexas

Amazon sellers are already at $142.77 with 4 left in stock, this will hit $150 before Christmas, so the under bets are probably out.

Anyone want to take bets on $200 by Jan 1st? :)

LegoFanTexas

MMV (10193) on Amazon has dropped below 1,000 for sale, down to 821 as I type this...

Farmer_John

I don't know if these drops in the MMV are just speculation or otherwise. My bet is as more popular sets are selling out (or just going out of stock) and going up, sales of the next most popular sets are increasing. The MMV is a very good set and is very popular. Its been around awhile, and may even EOL by the end of 2012, but I wouldn't speculate on that at this point in time. Furthermore, I would not be ashamed to purchase that particular set (and I have) as a Christmas gift in lieu of the DS as it is more affordable, about as playable and extremely versatile (use with the winter sets, nativity, kingdoms/castle, etc.). My kids are studying medieval times in school, so we got it as a teaching aid.

LegoFanTexas

MMV has been out since 2008, according to Brickset...

2012 is a LONG time for any set to be out, much less a set like this.

Isn't Joust supposed to replace it?

brickupdate

The nice thing about MMV is that if it does get retired, then it would likely be in stock for the Dec 26th LEGO 50% sale, since LEGO.com still has them in stock, as does Amazon and elsewhere. Unlike Emerald Night. (note to self: try to go an entire hour without typing out "emerald night" somewhere.)
-Dan

prevere

Something like that anyway.

prevere

Just thought I'd say, this is one of the longest, and best threads on Brickset.

I think Lego is extending the life of some high level sets to slow down the aftermarket value. Why let aftermarket sellers make money, that Lego can make themselves?

With this life extension beyond normal set life (2 years usually), it creates a logjam of active sets, a bunch of which may retire at one time, or unexpectedly in the middle of the year. GE, FB, MMV, DS, WTS are all beyond their 24-month window, some well beyond.

Strictly from a business standpoint, an effect of this is an increased # of sets floating around on the market. What impact will that have? MMV has been out there a long time, and I think that will have a big impact on its long-term value.

LegoFanTexas

DS does not surprise me that it has been out beyond 24 months, look at prior UCS sets, they seem to have a 3 or 4 year life.

GE "should" have another year, FB "should" retire now, MMV "should" have retired a year ago, WTS "should" also have retired a year ago.

So go figure...

As you say, Lego may be changing its business model without telling us. That being said, there is plenty of room for money to be made, look at EM, on Amazon it is up to $145 just a few days after selling out at $90. Now in fairness, I think the problem is that the set was underpriced to begin with, Lego doesn't seem to do mid-run price increases, instead they retire a set and come out with another one.

MMV is very "cheap" considering what is in it. Look at Joust, fewer parts, more money, replacing it... It will make MMV jump in the aftermarket when it retires to about $140 pretty quickly, based on cost per brick count.

So if Lego wants to make more money, why not just raise the price of MMV to $129 now? Or a year ago for that matter?

BlueMoonUSA

Sorry for posting this here...I was just hopeful of getting a response since everyone posting on this thread seems to be very knowledgeable in all things Lego. I just recently bought a Tantive from Lego [email protected] (Somewhat relevant to this thread lol, since I bought one thinking it should be retiring soon :)) and when I received it, the box art is slightly different from the only one that I have seen featured everywhere. There is no "Anniversary Edition" on the bottom strip of the box, it is just blank. No text. Also, there is no "NEW Captain Antilles" oval-shaped text box over the pictures of the minifigures. Did I get an irregular box, an EU or other country edition, or is this just how they are now manufacturing the most recent batches?? Would it effect future resale if there is no "Anniversay Edition" printed on the bottom?? Any insight you could give me would be great. Thanks!!

prevere

As long as the box condition is ok, shouldn't matter. Even boxes printed in black & white from the early 2000s - still go for nice $!

LegoFanTexas

Great question...

Yes, it is weird, but normal... The sets in the store just a month ago still said 2009 Anniversary Edition, but the 4 that I've received from [email protected] since then all are as you describe, they did change the box.

Weird, since it is the last run of the set.

BlueMoonUSA

Thanks for replying. Glad to know I'm not the only one receiving the modified box art :)

madforLEGO

Starting to sweat a bit, seeing as the GE is sold out everywhere it seems (maybe not Amazon yet) and the LEGO online shop has it as 'Sold out'...
Again I am believing/hopeful that the GE still has another year and the FB should be gone before then... but not sure at the moment...

Pacific493

The nice thing about MMV is that if it does get retired, then it would likely be in stock for the Dec 26th LEGO 50% sale, since LEGO.com still has them in stock, as does Amazon and elsewhere. Unlike Emerald Night. (note to self: try to go an entire hour without typing out "emerald night" somewhere.)
-Dan

I wouldn't necessarily count on Lego having another 50% sale around Christmas time. As I recall, the sale last year was a bit of a shock and did not have strong precedent. My sense was that it reflected a miscalculation on the part of Lego's inventory management. Given the number of days that many of the sets remained in stock at 50% and the secondary market price for a lot of these sets, it seemed like Lego has massively overstocked and then had to blow the sets out simply to clear out its warehouses.

This year, Lego seems to have used the Black Friday sale to whittle down whatever remaining stock that it had of some of the EOL sets (EN, IF, AT-OT) and had a number of others sell out, particularly the SW sets, well before Christmas. Although Lego may have another big sale around Christmas, I would not anticipate it being as tasty as last years.

Pacific493

Just thought I'd say, this is one of the longest, and best threads on Brickset.

I think Lego is extending the life of some high level sets to slow down the aftermarket value. Why let aftermarket sellers make money, that Lego can make themselves?

With this life extension beyond normal set life (2 years usually), it creates a logjam of active sets, a bunch of which may retire at one time, or unexpectedly in the middle of the year. GE, FB, MMV, DS, WTS are all beyond their 24-month window, some well beyond.

Strictly from a business standpoint, an effect of this is an increased # of sets floating around on the market. What impact will that have? MMV has been out there a long time, and I think that will have a big impact on its long-term value.

My opinion is that the thing that has the biggest impact on secondary market value is the number of times a set is discounted and the length of time that it sells at a discounted price. If you look at the sets that Lego blew out at 50% at the end of last year, many of those sets (7754, 7749, Midi ISD) have not reached or are just now reaching their original MSRP on the secondary market. Because many -- if not the majority of -- resellers are hobbyist looking to make a few easy bucks to supply their habit, I don't think you have many resellers who sell sets at a loss simply to unload inventory. Basically, I think that the more sets that you have on the market, the slower the secondary market price of the set will be to rise.

cbaker1974

@Pacific493, that is no doubt a big driver in the value. I have still seen some local WalMarts as recently as a month ago that had last year's midi-ISD still available, as well as several of the sets that WM had on clearance after Christmas last year (fire helicopter, SP3 Lunar Limo). Someone finally snapped them up in November, but these sets sat around unwanted for a long time. I still have a ton of SP3 Galactic Enforcers that I bought at Target for $25 and they are struggling to hit $60-70s on eBay a year after retirement.

I am finding that some of the more unique City items do well, particularly City Corner if you can find any of them left around you....it's sold out and now discontinued, that bus is pretty nice! It really depends on the set however.

Also I expect some of the recent sold out Harry Potter sets to do well (last year's wave..the Burrow in particular, I think it will follow a similar pattern to Shreiking Shack). I would bet that Wal-Mart and Target will clearance any remaining HP sets after Christmas if you are lucky enough to find any.

rocao

I think Lego is extending the life of some high level sets to slow down the aftermarket value. Why let aftermarket sellers make money, that Lego can make themselves?

If they are choosing to extend production on sets, I don't think it is with any intent to manipulate aftermarket value. TLG can't realistically hope to charge the aftermarket prices that some sets experience, and the values only reached those levels because they are no longer in production. If the set were still in LEGO stores and that far out of line with the rest of their product, it would just sit there. I would go even one step further and say that if TLG were shrewd, they should like to see aftermarket values appreciate since it encourages customers to buy current sets and avoid missing out again.

There may be some indirect causality, though: Death Star is rumored to be discontinued (perhaps true), and those that catch the rumors hurry to buy sets. TLG notices a strong surge in demand of the set and decides upon an additional production run.

madforLEGO

^--- this also means there may be a glut of them the next time they have a Star Wars sale during the next year if they decide to run the DS based on speculation, and I am guessing they account for that (but who knows) I believe you are right though the one thing LEGO has going for it is the secondary market high prices.. "Buy it now, or pay later" may be an unofficial battle cry for TLG

Eric

I apologise for this very, very immature post, but, 600th comment!

dremel99

I don't know about GE, Fire Brigade show OOS on S&H shipping in 30 days, however GE is showing just sold out. I wonder what is going on, that would be amazing if GE was gone and not FB.