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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I only have 2 QARs but I managed to use my ebay bucks to get 1 for free. Hoping that they will still be around so I can use the next ebay buck reward period to cash in again.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    You must buy quite a bit on ebay to rack up that much in bucks.

    I'm finally in a position to pick up the Imperial Shuttle and I'm waiting for a deal. Hopefully it's not too late.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I get lucky sometimes with the double ebay buck days.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432

    To anyone interested, #8043 is finally gone... Anyone who wants one, don't wait to buy one, what is left in the wild is all that is left.

    There's a sale at ToysRUs.com today. 20% off their "exclusives". 8043 is considered one of their exclusives apparently (even though you can get it at other places like Target). Anyway, $159.99 right now, today only. Also a free Lego tote bin (you need to add it explicitly to your cart in order to get it free), and free shipping.

    Unimog is 20% off as well - $167.99 (their original price is marked up to $209.99).
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Thank you for the heads up, that is a good deal...

    Several other sets are actually decent deals for a change...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I bought a few things. Placed 2 separate orders. I got one order free with a gift card that I get by getting points using my credit card. I usually get $500-600 of TRU gift cards every year and I use them only to buy Legos.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I went ahead and purchased the #9398. Not a set I would get normally, but the fact that it's Technic and 20% off plus a free tote pushed me off the fence. I doubt the #9398 will go EOL until late 2013 at the earliest.

    Thanks for the heads up on the sale @sidersdd !
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I bought Hoth Echo Base, then Hillside house and a Series 8 minifigures to push it over the $60 threshold.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 873
    ^ I saw the pricing on Echo Base. Seemed like a reasonable discount - especially given that the set is a TRU exclusive. Jealous and I wish I had waited for this sale (I got it for $85 when TRU had its "oops our $10 coupon works on everything" debacle a few months ago). Oh well - what's done is done!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    There are people that hate Echo Base and people that like it. I felt you can't go wrong on a discounted Star Wars OT set.
  • JBricks27JBricks27 Member Posts: 678
    Will there be a better deal on the #3677 red cargo train come Christmas time? $128 seems fairly low.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I tried to order a #3677 twice from Amazon.Fr, and both times it arrived like someone had tried to (literally) cut the box in half with a press. The post office tried to tape everything back together, but several of the larger pieces and even the tracks were bent in half. Amazing what some delivery companies can do to a box. Anyway, I sent the sets back and took it as a sign that I wasn't supposed to order large sets from Amazon.Fr anymore. Too bad because the price delivered from Amazon.Fr was about $125 after the currency exchange.

    Trains always do well after EOL...
  • JBricks27JBricks27 Member Posts: 678
    Lowest price I can find on amazon (US) is a bit over $180
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    In the US, Red Cargo Train is a TRU exclusive, so you'll never see it for RRP on Amazon. This is why the 20% off deal at TRU for that set is a good deal, otherwise the only way to get it is Lego direct, or Amazon France, but that has issues as well.
  • JBricks27JBricks27 Member Posts: 678
    ^ do you think it is likely that there will be a better sale on this set in the next few months?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I got the Red Cargo train at a good price ($130) at TRU last year, but I don't remember the details. I think they had it on sale for $150 and I had a 20% off coupon or some such. TRU tends to have some of their best sells during Bricktober, in October. Just a month away.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    BOGO 2 for 1 will be a better price, if you can find 3 matching price sets. But that can be very hard to do, which is why the 20% was a fair offer.

    Lego usually does 10% off on Black Friday, so you could get it direct from Lego then, plus the 5% VIP points, plus a holiday pick-a-brick cup, plus anything else they might be giving away.
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    Definitely a good price on the red cargo train. I picked one up last year at a TRU BOGO 50% off sale (well, picked 2 up). My local TRU hasn't had the red cargo train in close to a year now.

    It had been over a year since the yellow cargo train was here locally but it showed up this past weekend. Odd...
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    You lucky lucky BOGO'ers :P hehehe....
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I had to pass on the 8043. Didn't want too. But that would have taken away from my Black Friday budget.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^Same here. Getting ready to be wiped out on BF. Lots of good stuff will go EOL this time around.
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    What is everybody's expectations for BF? Are you anticipating that whatever is marked down will be going out?
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    The two big ones I think will be Imperial Shuttle and Fire Brigade. Both will sell out quick.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    Top of my list for resell choices are Imperial Shuttle and Tower Bridge, with an eye on VW Camper and Diagon Alley depending on if they show signs of going EOL soon after. Deathstar is a notable mention for same reason.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited September 2012
    Anything is possible. Now and again a set makes a brief appearance. If the VW Camper (Sept 2011) goes EOL at the end of this year it will be such a set. And, if so, should make a huge impact on the aftermarket, because that will mean not many were sold. That is, relative to sets that are current for 2-3 years, or even more.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I would love to get 3-4 Tower Bridges. I can never find them on sale :( Hopefully that will happen on BF.
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    Why don't we create a list of sets which can be available on Black Friday :) ? It would be a huge help to everyone to get more and more sets this year.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    My best guess for BF would be the Imperial Shuttle (which has been on sale a few times now). A modular has never been marked down in the past. Too soon for VW Van. Probably some other minor Star Wars set (Hoth Base maybe?).
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444

    My best guess for BF would be the Imperial Shuttle (which has been on sale a few times now). A modular has never been marked down in the past. Too soon for VW Van. Probably some other minor Star Wars set (Hoth Base maybe?).

    Green Grocer was marked down to $119.99 before it went out. I grabbed one. Last year Pet Shop was marked down 10%. I grabbed one of those :)

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ...They had a promotion as well. They were giving away the Holiday Set 2 with purchase. November 23rd was when I bought the Pet Shop.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I looked back on my orders and I purchased the Green Grocer September 2009. My guess is that is when Fire Brigade was out and Green Grocer EOL'd.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    edited September 2012
    mathew said:

    The two big ones I think will be Imperial Shuttle and Fire Brigade. Both will sell out quick.

    Imperial Shuttle might not last that long. All 3 NW stores no longer have it and aren't getting any more. I'm guessing what stores have in stock on hand is it, no more shipments. if anyone does have it, it will be on the BF sale, but it might be like GG two BFs ago - it's on sale, but no one has it in stock. Online only I guess.

    definite BF Sale:
    IS, FB, Winter Bakery

    Likely:
    TB, DA, MMV

    Possible:
    DS, Maerk Train

    Camper Van is too early, that one will be next BF at the earliest

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    yes, in addition to the 25% off EOL items, LEGO had several other non-ending items at 10% off on Black Friday.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Black Friday was not that great for me last year. I only bought Winter Toy Shop, (2) Mill Village Raids and the Tank Truck. All on sale and free shipping and got another Holiday Set. Only spent $160
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    wonder if they will be doing the special in-store advance invitation-only event the saturday before BF again? I was one of the lucky invitees at my store last year, and it was kind of cool. only downside was that the 25% off deals weren't going yet, so it was just the scratch off 10/20/50 deal, and the feeling of being special. ;-)
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I can't see Imperial Shuttle still being in stock on Black Friday, it is already sold out or very scarce at the LEGO Stores I visit. Also: resellers know that UCS sets bode well in the aftermarket and the Dropship has done well in the aftermarket too.

    I have 3 shuttles, and would grab more if I see a good deal. Um, but don't tell my wife that. :)

  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Pitfall69 said:

    Black Friday was not that great for me last year. I only bought Winter Toy Shop, (2) Mill Village Raids and the Tank Truck. All on sale and free shipping and got another Holiday Set. Only spent $160

    I thought last year was great! Getting the Imperial Flagship for essentially $122 after all discounts was wonderful. The Toy Shop and Tank Truck were also great buys.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    There probably will be one or two silver bullets on BF - like IF and EN.

    Looking back, how many of us regret not buying more of those? Of course, my order for IFs were canceled. Luckily I snapped up a few on Amazon at that very second for retail price.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693

    I can't see Imperial Shuttle still being in stock on Black Friday, it is already sold out or very scarce at the LEGO Stores I visit. Also: resellers know that UCS sets bode well in the aftermarket and the Dropship has done well in the aftermarket too.

    I have 3 shuttles, and would grab more if I see a good deal. Um, but don't tell my wife that. :)

    No different than other large sets, it likely will have/has had a big production run to make sure the set is well stocked for the holidays. Toy companies are not stupid - expensive, flagship products last through early December.
  • The_Brick_BuilderThe_Brick_Builder Member Posts: 658
    I hope Fire Brigade and Imperial Shuttle will be on sale during Black Friday. Two of my wants! Looking forward to this year's BF being better than last year's.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    edited September 2012
    ^^ disagree. LEGO isn't going to gear up production on a set they plan to discontinue by putting them on sale on Black Friday. The purpose of the sale is to clear out existing inventory that they haven't been moving. By all accounts, the shuttle has been a pretty slow mover for well over a year now (other than the 5/5 sale). They aren't making any more, they are just getting rid of what's left.

    It's possible they might ship out what's left to various stores in advance of BF, but no way are they going to produce more just to be stocked for the sale. that isn't their MO on the clearance stuff.

    The items LEGO puts at 25% off on BF aren't flagship products anymore - they were 2010 flagship products. Now it's just about moving the remnants.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    prevere said:

    Looking back, how many of us regret not buying more of those?

    I do! I had a 20% off scratcher, but at the time I was there the staff wasn't stacking these with the 25%. Turns out they did that later, and I got the refund retroactively, but I had left several of each on the shelf since I wasn't getting 40% (I thought). looking back, I should have grabbed them all even at 25%.

  • abenamouabenamou Member Posts: 12
    I got the 50% scratcher on BF, they set a limit on how much I could spend though :) but amazing nonetheless.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    dougts said:

    ^^ disagree. LEGO isn't going to gear up production on a set they plan to discontinue by putting them on sale on Black Friday. The purpose of the sale is to clear out existing inventory that they haven't been moving. By all accounts, the shuttle has been a pretty slow mover for well over a year now (other than the 5/5 sale). They aren't making any more, they are just getting rid of what's left.

    It's possible they might ship out what's left to various stores in advance of BF, but no way are they going to produce more just to be stocked for the sale. that isn't their MO on the clearance stuff.

    The items LEGO puts at 25% off on BF aren't flagship products anymore - they were 2010 flagship products. Now it's just about moving the remnants.

    Except production already geared up. The set is in stock at LEGO.com and will soon be re-arriving at physical stores in large quantities, having been pretty much absent since May. It is no different from the past. LEGO.com wasn't simply holding stock for the past three months while it has been on backorder. It has been waiting for a new production batch, which has arrived.

    As for it going on sale, who knows. But items don't only go on sale because they are being discontinued. They also go on sale to get people into a store.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ well, this contradicts what I'm hearing in regards to store shipments, but you could of course be right. Black Friday sales have historically been to get rid of discontinued items. of course this drives traffic as well, but they never put in-production items on 25% off on Black Friday, only the old stuff.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    Bandit said:

    ^ AT-OT was in Revenge of the Sith. It's not just a Clone Wars model...

    I recently confirmed you were right on the AT-OT. But to my dismay, along the way I also found out the darned Venator Republic Destroyer was in Ep. III as well. Needless to say, both sets are en route =P

  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ lol glad I could help! :D. Better to find out now than in another year!
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    All great information. I certainly wish I would have done better last year. The only real "flop" (if you want to call it that) with last year's mark down was 10215 Obi Wan's starfighter.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    Pitfall69 said:

    I looked back on my orders and I purchased the Green Grocer September 2009. My guess is that is when Fire Brigade was out and Green Grocer EOL'd.

    Green Grocer went OOS on [email protected] at the very beginning of November 2010 IIRC.

  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    dougts said:

    ^ well, this contradicts what I'm hearing in regards to store shipments, but you could of course be right. Black Friday sales have historically been to get rid of discontinued items. of course this drives traffic as well, but they never put in-production items on 25% off on Black Friday, only the old stuff.

    I'm not saying the item is still in production. What I am saying - and this is supported by the fact LEGO.com now has presumably ample stock and LEGO Stores will be getting shipments coming in - is that there was likely one last big production run to have ample supplies for the fall holiday shopping season.

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