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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I just wish the POTC ships were the same scale as the IF. Kind of dings the collectibility with the regular pirate folks. I think I am going to steer clear and keep some powder dry for some HP and Black Friday sales.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    BP.

    It's out of stock at [email protected] until mid-Sept. I'm just wondering when items are "sold out" with a re-stocking date - how often is the product page removed (with no warning) when they realize they have no more? The restock date indicates this will be around for a few more months yet.

    If [email protected] still has a product page, I consider that set still "live". When the "page not found" message comes up, that's when I consider the set ... gone, baby, gone.

    I don't care that much about the timing now. This is a Xmas 2013 set in my opinion. I keep buying 2 at a time on Amazon with the price dips below $80.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ I agree with your general points, and you might be right, [email protected] might be getting another shipment in.

    All I can do is report that I am unable to buy from my regular sources anymore (Lego Authorized resellers), as they can no longer order this set.

    Does that mean it is forever gone from [email protected] or Amazon? No, but it gives it a decent chance of it, not being a 1xxxx set.

    Then again, even 10210 went EOL last Christmas, was "page not found" on [email protected] for awhile, then came back! I even bought 2 more of them at normal price in the spring of this year from [email protected], so they did find more somewhere.

    Also, Amazon.com is sold out of both 4184 and 8043, if they will restock or not, I have no idea.

    I was just tossing it out to be helpful. :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Of sure LFT. Always appreciate your expertise.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Very nice of you to share your info. Especially when you don't have to. Some people would keep such things to themselves, and if so there would be nothing wrong with that.

    I only have 1 BP, for myself. I simply can't buy 10+ of all the 'will probably shoot up in price' sets. I don't have the space or the $$ to do so. Which is fine. I need to have limits. :-)

    Now, the Excavator? I do have a lot of them (relative to what I usually get for a set at its price). No question that it will outperform.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited August 2012
    Curious - what are some of the past "Technic aftermarket" Hall of Famer sets from the past few years? A quick search showed some nice returns for 8053 and 8265.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    And holy moly - 8275 Motorized Bulldozer - could this be the UCS MF of the Technic world?

    Retailed for $150 in 2007. Now selling for $600+.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    #8275 - Motorized Bulldozer

    This is is very similar to #8043 in almost every way. Slightly more parts in the Bulldozer, but the power functions are very similar. This hasn't gone up in price as far as Tow Truck, but it also retired less than 3 years ago.

    #8285 - Tow Truck

    This has got to be one of the records... It has really shot up in price, nearly 4x RRP in 4 years. Pretty good for a Technic set. I'm actually not sure why this one has gone up so much, but I do think we'll see a similar performance from #8110 Unimog when it goes, both are unique in some ways and Unimog is unlikely to ever be done again I would think.

    #8421 - Mobile Crane

    Wow, I have no idea why this one is worth so much, I personally don't really like the model, it looks... outdated to me. But I haven't built it so what do I know? This one is going for nearly $500 new on Bricklink, that is just amazing... The newer #8053 may not be as complex, but I think it is a better model and better build, but it is also 5 years newer which helps a lot.

    #8258 - Crane Truck

    This one is underrated I think, I built this last month and it is HUGE! Much bigger than it looks on the box, nearly twice the size of the new logging truck that is out now. Power functions work well, complex build, a million gears and switches inside the frame, if you build this one, you have it get it all correct, that's for sure. This can still be had for a good price, but I think it will continue to rise.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    LTF - Somebody should be paying you to do these reviews.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I think the Excavator will do better than the Dozer in the long run. Course, the Dozer has a big lead.

    I think it is more impressive and has a lot more playability. If I were a kid I would much more want to play with the Excavator. I think it is way cool.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    FWIW, 8043 has been sold out on amazon for months.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Bandit said:

    FWIW, 8043 has been sold out on amazon for months.

    For the most part, yes... It has come in and gone out several times, I've seen it a few days here and there all summer long, but they never have very many of them.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pictures of:

    #8258 - Crane Truck
    #9397 - Logging Truck

    What is amazing is that in these shots, they look similar. They aren't in person, if you were standing here, you'd see the difference, but for some reason it doesn't come across here.

    They look similar in size, but Crane Truck has 1,877 parts vs. Logging Truck at 1,308 parts. Where is the difference? See the next post...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The real difference is here.

    The gears, the power functions, the level of detail in the actual Technic part in Crane Truck is perhaps double that of Logging Truck. The crane is more detailed, does more under power, lifts more weight, and is just more interesting to me in general.

    The outriggers on both are power, but on Crane Truck they are front and back, plus they actually snap down so they work, they hold up the truck. The outriggers on Logging Truck are indeed power, but are just for show, they don't hold anything up.

    Plus, don't miss the 4 wheel steering on Crane Truck, it actually works perfectly with the front wheels turning more sharply than the second row.

    And of course there is weight. Logging Truck is just over 3lbs, Crane Truck is almost exactly 5lbs.

    :) Can you guess which one is my favorite?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    There seems to have been many more sales on BP than on QAR (at least through Amazon). Hence, I have a few more BP sets than QAR sets and would like to pick up a couple more QAR sets before it goes EOL. I also want to build it as I built the IF and want the QAR to go with it...
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Good insight Farmer_John - and I agree. I only was able to grab a few QARs at the WM clearance. And since they seem to only be retail, including Amazon. Having built the ship myself - I would easily pay $200+ for it. It is fantastic.

    I think it's clear that both could be EOL by year's end.
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    All very interesting thoughts. We went to our local TRU tonight and (ironically) there were 2 excavators on the shelf. That's interesting because in the two years I've been into Lego, this store has NEVER had the excavator.

    Also interesting was that they had the 7939 Cargo train there. They haven't had this "in store" since last summer. I wonder when that will be going out.

    I really would like a sale before I commit on the excavator but on the other hand if it goes & I don't have it, I'll be kicking myself!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ You are welcome to buy one from me at Christmas for 50% over RRP when they are completely gone. ;)

    Regular price would look pretty good then, wouldn't it? :)
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 789
    edited September 2012
    Just curious, is there any value in the old Brickmaster exclusives? Does the value change if these sets have been opened as well?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    It's pretty sad...

    I was in the Lego store the other day and say the excavator in a window display. I told my daughter that it looked really neat ant that I would like to get one. She pointed to the box and it turns out I already have one... I can't even track what I've purchased anymore.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Same here. I have all of my sets in a spreadsheet and still find it difficult to keep track! :-)
  • JBricks27JBricks27 Member Posts: 678
    Hmmm.. I saw 5 or 6 BP at a store near me marked for $67. Is this almost a guaranteed investment if I wait to resell at Christmas time? Im new to the reselling side of LEGO and am on a tight budget. I'm afraid of the risk involved, but could use the money if I could turn a profit. Any suggestions?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ I would not risk the rent money...

    Risk money that you would have bought Facebook stock with... that is the sort of money I'd invest into Lego.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I could see The Black Pearl pushing $150 by Christmas, but you also need to look at the condition of the boxes. I wouldn't mind a box with mild imperfections, but if it's significantly worn or crushed, you're going to be looking at less, obviously. Also, $150 is just a guess, but I certainly don't think you'll lose money so long as you can hold onto them until November or so.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ You might get $150 at Christmas... you might also only get $100. You'll do much better waiting until 2013 Christmas, but clearly that requires a much bigger jump.
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,380
    @jvdrummer182- Just because there's six on the shelves, doesn't mean you have to buy all 6. Why not just buy 2-3? That way you can pay your rent easily with no worries, and get a nice chunk of profit down the line come Christmas time. :-)
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,380
    What are your thoughts on this:
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-LEGO-TOY-FAIR-AFA-9-0-IRONMAN-CAPTAIN-AMERICA-w-LANYARD-121-125-/221118362628?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item337bae7404

    Does the AFA case somehow increase this items value? I'm not entirely "ecstatic" about LEGO being graded on a 10 point scale.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ there's a thread already talking about all these graded sets this seller has dumped on eBay in the last few days. If you think this even remotely increases value at all, I don't know what to tell you.

    This seller is going to be sorely disappointed when he realizes he wasted thousands of dollars getting all this stuff graded. Although if he sells his graded UCS Falcon for $12500 like he's asking, I guess he'll come out ahead. ;)
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 789
    ^He graded #10179? And for how much? What in the world was this guy thinking?!?
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,380
    ^^Yes, I couldn't find it for some reason though.
    I sure don't... I was just wondering what the rest of the community thought.

    Right now, $12,500 is a joke.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    samiam391 said:

    @jvdrummer182- Just because there's six on the shelves, doesn't mean you have to buy all 6. Why not just buy 2-3? That way you can pay your rent easily with no worries, and get a nice chunk of profit down the line come Christmas time. :-)

    My rule of thumb is to not risk investment money that is meant to pay the bills. I don't think there is risk involved in buying the Lego sets, but your money will be tied up for awhile. It also depends what type of profit you are looking for, short or long term. For me, I'm waiting until next year. Also, there is another movie coming out and that will drive interest in this set.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Bandit said:

    ^ there's a thread already talking about all these graded sets this seller has dumped on eBay in the last few days. If you think this even remotely increases value at all, I don't know what to tell you.

    This seller is going to be sorely disappointed when he realizes he wasted thousands of dollars getting all this stuff graded. Although if he sells his graded UCS Falcon for $12500 like he's asking, I guess he'll come out ahead. ;)

    Yes, there is already a thread for this, but I will say this, what makes anyone think that he's not the one grading the sets?

  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,380
    Well, I do know that AFA is an actual Action Figure grading company. So I would think it would be a crime to "copy" or "forge" their mark on an item.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited September 2012
    Yes, what was I thinking. Can you imagine anyone committing fraud or a crime with Legos?
  • pvancil27pvancil27 Member Posts: 588
    AFA is a very Legit company and you can contact them to confirm the grades with them. I have some Sports figures graded from them. The protective cases to me are worth the money. That said the mark up that guy has on sets is insane. Seeing the custom case made for the loose Cloud City figure set, does make me wonder what kind of case they could come up with for a complete set and how it would look.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Graded Legos???? Craziness!!!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    pvancil27 said:

    AFA is a very Legit company and you can contact them to confirm the grades with them. I have some Sports figures graded from them. The protective cases to me are worth the money. That said the mark up that guy has on sets is insane. Seeing the custom case made for the loose Cloud City figure set, does make me wonder what kind of case they could come up with for a complete set and how it would look.

    Yes, the company is legit. I don't know about this person though.

  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    LOL. He left the price tag on the Watto's Junkyard set. Just as an FYI for anyone interested, lighter fluid does a fantastic job on removing price stickers. I've never had it damage a box or leave any detectable trace. He / she has spent a princely sum just to have the sets graded. Good luck to the seller, but that to me seems a foolish use of resources. To each his own I guess.
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    What is a bit sad, I am still looking for a good enough deal for both QAR and BP for personal collection. Anyone help me out in this :) Oh and I managed to get 3 of the 8043's, 2 to resell later and one for personal collection :D
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Good luck with the Black Pearl, but I'm also looking to find a good deal on Queen Anne's Revenge to warrant buying more.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    What is a bit sad, I am still looking for a good enough deal for both QAR and BP for personal collection. Anyone help me out in this :) Oh and I managed to get 3 of the 8043's, 2 to resell later and one for personal collection :D

    If you will take them deboxed, I would do a fair price on both. Shipping from the US on those two big sets in box would cost and arm and a Lego, but I could do basic airmail if I debox them.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    Good luck with the Black Pearl, but I'm also looking to find a good deal on Queen Anne's Revenge to warrant buying more.

    What is a good price on QAR? For you, I'd do a good price on one, if it is for personal use. :). It even will have the box!!, ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Oh God, I thought that "ship had sailed"
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,360
    Best price I managed in UK for QAR was £67 (£103 rrp)
  • linchmanlinchman Member Posts: 20
    roxio said:

    Best price I managed in UK for QAR was £67 (£103 rrp)

    was that recently?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    The best price for me was $93.75+tax+free shipping. So...$99.38 USD out the door.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    I paid £80 for my QAR, and was delighted with it. Got the BP for £55, which was a better deal, although I prefer the QAR.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,979
    I got a QAR at Walmart over the summer for $69 when an employee gave me $10 extra off all the clearance items I wanted. Took home a lot of HP on the cheap too.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,360
    linchman said:

    roxio said:

    Best price I managed in UK for QAR was £67 (£103 rrp)

    was that recently?
    Few months ago, Tesco online, £77 plus £10 off £75 spend.
    Think they were cheaper instore at Smyths when they had their 20% Jubilee weekend - I think it and the BP are only going one way now - up £££
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Wow...Lego [email protected] currently has almost no items for sale! Could be a fun BF sale!

    I hope someone posts any QAR sales that happen to come up. It'll probably be sold out by the time I read the post, but it's worth a shot.
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