Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

gmpirate

I tend to think the BP is going. It was over-produced so I don't think they would have more runs. A lot of smaller Lego stores have not even been carrying it. Imo, it will still do well -- although probably not for a while. Hope so anyway, since I have a boat load of them :P

mathew

After building both Helm's Deep and Urak-hai Army, I'm pretty sure that these will do well in the aftermarket. Combined they easily make the best castle setup that I've built or have seen (outside of multi-thousand brick MOCs). I know a lot of the people here don't like the LotR sets (without much thought I think) but consider that The Hobbit movies will now span over the next few years. The first wave of the LotR sets will probably retire early next year. That leaves about two years of interest in the theme if not more. I think those deriding it will feel foolish come Christmas 2013 by not buying up more for resale. Of course I could be wrong and The Hobbit movies will flop. Regardless there will always be LotR fans unlike say Prince of Persia or other lackluster movie based themes. LotR also appeals to what I would consider a higher educated demographic, one that typically has more disposable income.

Pitfall69

That is what I was saying way before The Lord of the Rings sets came out that it doesn't matter if people aren't into the movies or haven't seen them yet. Helms Deep is an awesome castle and if you took the Lord of the Ring branding off the box it is STILL a castle and the Castle theme sells well. The minifigures are great as well.

y2josh

^^Just to be clear, and though I know we disagree on the current status of LotR, I have absolutely no doubt that the larger sets and army builders will do very well in retirement, with the smaller sets being more dependent on how many more times characters like Gandalf or Sam pop up in future sets.

brickupdate

I have to agree with @mathew. I was deciding last night if I should build Helm's Deep (I have two new in the box), and looking at it, I was really blown away at how much better it is that really any castle I have seen before. The others were more "kids fantasy" than this, but none as detailed, or with this type of style. Add in all the army building and modular nature of it, I have to say, I do think these sets will do well long term. Around the holidays, I would like to pick up a bunch just for my own collection & army building.

turtle1173

My son and I love Helm's deep and really all the LotR sets. For him (he's 10), he didn't care for Kingdoms as much because of the lack of fantasy elements. So, aside from a return to Castle, LotR was the next best thing. We enjoy the movies and can't wait for the Hobbit movies to come out. I was impressed with the Helm's deep build and it should be a classic in the years to come.

The_Brick_Builder

Anyone think #10210 Imperial Flagship will be $500 NISB at Christmas?

Pitfall69

^Anything is possible, but I don't think the Imperial Flagship will jump $150-60.

FollowsClosely

It just may. This set was not stockpiled like it should have been.

LegoFanTexas

^ It might, but it also is selling very slowly right now.

I have 12 left, haven't sold one in a month. But then again it is summer. The plan is that they are all gone by Christmas, so the last few might get to $500, but $450 is fine as well.

LegoFanTexas

I suppose if the question is, "do you buy more at the current price to resell at Christmas", the answer for me would be no.

It has had its big rise, it will continue to go up, but slowly over time. There are other deals to be had. For the below RRP that I am into mine, it doesn't really matter if I get $400 or $500 per set, I'm still making a ton of money either way. Had I purchased recently at $300 a set, it would matter much more.

Obviously I want to get as much as possible, but you can't control the market, it is worth what it is worth and sells as it does.

Pitfall69

"We can almost buy our own ship for that!"

Pitfall69

What are better odds? UCS Millennium Falcon reaching $3,000 or Imperial Flagship hitting $500?

hoyatables

^"Never tell me the odds!"

Pitfall69

I didn't, I asked ;)

Renny

I've already seen 10179 Falcons selling for $3000 (the 1st edition sealed ones).

graphite

^^^ "Sir, the odds of successfully navigating an asteroid field are 2:1".. Han "Never tell me th... oh wait, thats not so bad."

Pitfall69

Yes...I know...I started it again. I can't help myself ;)

y2josh

Pitfall69 said:

What are better odds? UCS Millennium Falcon reaching $3,000 or Imperial Flagship hitting $500?

Ever? I'd say both are likely. By Christmas? Probably neither, but I'd suppose the Falcon has the better chance.

Pitfall69

Yeah, by Christmas. I have seen people asking $3,000 or more, but on average they are selling for about $2,300-2,400. One first edition sold for $4,000.

Pitfall69

So...the question is, if you can snag a MISB UCS MF for $2,400 and sell it for $3,000 or more, wouldn't that be better than buying 7-8 Imperial Flag ships and hoping you can sell them for $500 at Christmas?

LegoFanTexas

^ That assumes that those are your only two options... :)

I wouldn't do either...

Pitfall69

I read someone on here bought one and is banking on selling it for big money around Christmas. I think he said he paid around $2,000

Pitfall69

I wouldn't want to assume the risk.

LegoFanTexas

Pitfall69 said:

I wouldn't want to assume the risk.

I don't see a lot of risk in it, but I also don't see much upside either. It will continue to go up, but slowly. The large short term jump has been made.

Renny

That could have been me. Got a sealed 1st edition for about 2k and am optimistic that I can sell it for at least 3k this Christmas.

berniebond

LegoFanTexas said:

Obviously I want to get as much as possible, but you can't control the market

With the number of sets you have stockpiled, i would think YOU can ;-)

effalcon

does a $3k lego set really have mass appeal at xmas?

i get the majority of reasonably priced sets being sought after for xmas, given they are perfect gifts etc.

but is a $3k lego set thats been available for years being purchased as a gift?
I'd have thought that the type of person buying it is going to buy it for themselves.

for a lot of people, xmas tightens up the wallet, covering all the other things for that time of year doesn't leave much room.

$500 IF seems a lot easier to swallow :P

then again, when talking about a $3k lego set, logic goes out the window.

gmpirate

Renny said:

That could have been me. Got a sealed 1st edition for about 2k and am optimistic that I can sell it for at least 3k this Christmas.

That's definitely a good buy and in the short term, meaning Christmas, you would probably make more money faster than buying EOL sets this season -- especially considering the time factor of selling one set vs many. The flip side is you would probably make more with the new EOL sets next Christmas.

So figure making $1k on the MF by Christmas vs making $1.5 - $2k on buying 10 Tower Bridges (assuming a little discount by double points or BF) and selling by next Christmas. I base the TB appreciation off 10195 by what that set commands now and will probably get by this Christmas.

Maybe you're lucky and can sell the MF in time to take advantage of the season deals and its a Win Win. Or maybe not, and you tie up that money and miss out. But even if you miss out on the Lego deals, you still have the Walmart & Target deals coming in January.

Heck, you can just sell it early in the season and at least make a few hundred on it and still have time to take advantage of whatever deals are available. Any way you slice it, it's not a bad move.

doriansdad

effalcon said:

for a lot of people, xmas tightens up the wallet, covering all the other things for that time of year doesn't leave much room.

If you are considering dropping $3k on a LEGO set then you do not have a tight wallet anytime of the year. This set is still very young in the world of collectibles. Ridiculous money ahead?

hoyatables

^depends on how slim the market becomes. There are some that will pay "any price" for this set once it becomes rare enough.

Renny

I'm going to go with an old classic from Kenny Roger's "You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em". I have no idea what the value or demand will be for the set in the upcoming years, but what i do know is that the higher it goes up in price, the smaller the pool of buyers will become. Also, lego has never re-released any UCS sets before in the past but with a new 10 year extension what is preventing them from changing that stance or maybe even releasing a redesigned UCS Falcon.

I think it will continue to grow in value but I'm jumping off of the 10179 train this holiday and will be more than happy with a minimum $1k profit.

richo

^ I know I am in the minority, but I believe they will remake the UCS falcon.

FollowsClosely

richo said:

^ I know I am in the minority, but I believe they will remake the UCS falcon.

I don't know if you are in the minority. I also think we will see it again, but not in the near future. Say 2018-2020, it may align with some Star-Wars milestone, or the making of the next trilogy?

Either way, I feel it is not a good set to invest in now, as you can get better returns on sets such as #10219 or #10211

Renny

I think the Maersk Train and Grand Emporium will do great in the aftermarket. The color combination of the train is just gorgeous in my opinion. As for GE, all modular buildings should do well but the fact that you can stack multiple GE's together I think adds even more to it's value. That and it's a corner building :)

wagnerml2

FollowsClosely said:

richo said:

^ I know I am in the minority, but I believe they will remake the UCS falcon.

I don't know if you are in the minority. I also think we will see it again, but not in the near future. Say 2018-2020, it may align with some Star-Wars milestone, or the making of the next trilogy?

Either way, I feel it is not a good set to invest in now, as you can get better returns on sets such as #10219 or #10211

I wonder. TLG, although they would probably deny it, do pay attention to the aftermarket. The potential of retired sets increasing in value does drive some sales of their current product line. Reissuing the UCS Falcon would have a negative impact on the re-sale value of the most sought after collectors set that TLG has produced in 20 years. I would think that they would think long and hard before reissuing that one.

monkeyhanger

wagnerml2: I think TLG care a lot more about the customers who buy to use than those who buy to sell later - how much of TLGs market do the resellers have? Probably a lot less than 1%, and that's big money TLG aren't seeing. UCS MF reissue or slightly altered redo would have more to do with what TLG can make off it than their thoughts about negatively affecting a market they make no profit on (resellers). If they are to do this I think they'd wait a few more years yet, it's only been unavailable 3 years - not enough fresh Lego fans who missed out to make it worth their while yet IMO.

td8981

I'd have to agree with monkeyhanger on that one. While I'm sure LEGO pays attention the the aftermarket, I doubt very much that it's to fret about not damaging the value of their more collectible items. It's purely to see what sets are in demand and where they lost revenue by retiring early.

It is in no way a coincidence that Fire Brigade and the Death Star will not die, after the meteoric price jump of the early modular buildings and the MF.

prevere

Every time TLG remakes a SW set (or really any series), the figs and structure of the set are different than the previous edition. I think that is done out of respect for collectors primarily - but it's also a wink of the eye to the aftermarket.

There is a certain "Circle of Life" to a collectible product. And if you start reproducing retired items, it will destroy the "perceived" collectible value.

Lego is too smart for that, unlike, say, Tyco with their Beanie Babies line.

Pitfall69

I don't think TLG as a whole pays attention to the aftermarket. I am sure individuals within the company do and probably frequent these forums. If the Fire Brigade and Medieval Market Village are still around, it is because they are still selling enough of them to warrant keeping them from retirement. From what I have read, the UCS Millennium Falcon didn't sell that well and there were plenty in stock. If they released another in a few years, it would no doubt be the most expensive Lego set EVER and might run into the same problem with sales. You have to remember that we make up such a small percentage of Lego buyers and paying $500 for a Lego set was unheard of 3 years ago. Most parents would not shell out that much cash and from looking though the forums, most of the people here missed out on buying the UCS Falcon as well. In my opinion, I don't think Lego will ever release another UCS Millennium Falcon.

monkeyhanger

Never say never if enough people want one. Even so, £350 seemed daft money to me a few years ago when I pretty much only had a motorised AT-AT and Vaders Tie Fighter, and even though i'd pay £500 retail for one now, there are many more that wouldn't. Give it 5 years and maybe there'll be enough people out there to warrant a limited run of a reissue. Can't think of many truly iconic OT vehicles left to do in UCS before TLG resort to redos. AT-AT and Mon Calamari being the biggest omissions so far for me, and to do those justice I think you'd have a piece count to rival the Falcon, especially for a minifig scale AT-AT.

Pitfall69

Ah, TLG cares about what people want? I present Exhibit A: The VIP Collectible Minifigure Collection

hoyatables

I think Pitfall's generally right re: why MMV and FB are still around, though it's possible that the relatively strength of the aftermarket has caused TLG to modify its calculus / threshold for when to EOL an item. All else being equal and assuming it still makes economic sense to do so, if TLG knows there is a residual demand for the sets they would rather pocket the money themselves than let a reseller do so.

LegoFanTexas

hoyatables said:

All else being equal and assuming it still makes economic sense to do so, if TLG knows there is a residual demand for the sets they would rather pocket the money themselves than let a reseller do so.

He who takes all the table scraps and leaves none for anyone else, soon finds themselves dining alone.

There is a huge benefit to leaving something on the table for dealers, it would be a short-sighted and foolish decision to try and take every last dollar for themselves.

brickupdate

I think TLG cares less about the aftermarket, than they do around the AURA of passion that adult collectors give them. That the aftermarket is not their goal, but the community of LEGO across the lifespan of their customer does.

So they can't be blind to the fact that there is an aftermarket, and what it represents beyond just "money on the table."

They also seem to appreciate series a lot, and realize that if they keep retiring stuff too quickly, that the consumer always feels they "missed out" on the series. Or that they only buy the 1 modular that is currently on the market, instead of the 3 or 4 now on the market. Same with winter village sets.

LegoFanTexas

brickupdate said:

I think TLG cares less about the aftermarket, than they do around the AURA of passion that adult collectors give them. That the aftermarket is not their goal, but the community of LEGO across the lifespan of their customer does.

So they can't be blind to the fact that there is an aftermarket, and what it represents beyond just "money on the table."

^ This is what I meant... :) Yes, there is more to it than just the short term money on the table. Brand is important and you never want to harm your brand image.

brickupdate said:

They also seem to appreciate series a lot, and realize that if they keep retiring stuff too quickly, that the consumer always feels they "missed out" on the series. Or that they only buy the 1 modular that is currently on the market, instead of the 3 or 4 now on the market. Same with winter village sets.

I agree with you, to a point, but this is a very fine line to walk. A single modular out at a time is probably not enough. 4 seems to be pushing it to me, unless they go to two sets a year, then 4 would make sense.

2 years on the market should generally be enough, except for flagship sets. I can see why they would keep those out longer.

sadowsk1

Any thoughts on the limited release Friends Advent calendar?

LegoFanTexas

^ The prior Advent Calendars have taken a long time to go up in value.

If you find them for 50% off, sure good deal... otherwise, pass...

prevere

Was the Friends calendar released even in limited quantity? I thought it was squashed.

td8981

I was actually curious about the Friends advent calendars myself. From what I understand, each LEGO store is getting a single shipment of them, which will not be replenished.

That's got to create at least a little extra demand for them.