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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,720
    edited August 2012
    LegoFanTexas said:

    krklint said:

    I've a keen ear to which ones know and which ones speculate ;) that's all I am willing to say beyond this point. Trust me, I caught the one I trust quite off guard.

    My understanding is that none of the store employees know anything, store managers included, EOL information is closely held, other than the printed list that is provided to dealers, which many of us get to see, but those dates aren't firm and often are long and short on various sets.

    Of course I could be wrong. :)
    Well everyone thinks they have the one true source of LEGO employees that know exactly what LEGO is doing, but in reality, like LFT said, employees -most of which I and others have thought were 'in the know'- also predicted it was to be gone last year.... Really most LEGO store employees either get their info from sites like this, or other scuttlebutt and rumors by other employees or customers, but not from LEGO IMO.
    But that being said I would be amazed if FB stayed out there for another year past its 'normal' EOL timeline for previous modular sets.
    I would say that most sets that are destined for EOL will be 'sold out' by BF sale, and anything on sale for BF will most likely be going EOL, and they are trying to get rid of spare stock.. That being said there have been times were EOL has occurred but LEGO kept finding more stock (the Pig Farms come to mind)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ Also, keep in mind that the list dealers get of EOL sets, is really not always EOL, but the end of time for them to order the sets. Even then, they don't always get the last few orders placed. They "request" sets, they don't "demand" sets. :) Most of the smaller dealers are on the bottom of the pecking order, after the Amazon.com and Toys R Us's of the world...

    For example, the first wave of Friends sets is listed as EOL (or rather, last order date) of 12/31/12, the end of this year. Does that mean they are gone for sure? Maybe they'll go in November, maybe they'll be around until next spring. Only TLG really knows.

    Also, the EOL lists (that I have seen) don't have the direct sets, the 1xxxx sets on them. So even the dealers have no idea about sets like MMV, DS, FB, etc.

    Keep in mind that when most store employees are talking about sets going away, they are thinking of the Lego fan who wants to buy one for themself, not 50 for resale. :) So it is a true statement that if you don't want to miss Fire Brigade, don't wait any longer, buy one as soon as possible, it is likely to just go away one day without warning.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^^ About the only sure indicator there is, besides it just disappearing, is BF. Beyond that, take it with a grain of salt -- managers included.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,526
    LegoFanTexas said:



    My understanding is that none of the store employees know anything, store managers included, EOL information is closely held, other than the printed list that is provided to dealers, which many of us get to see, but those dates aren't firm and often are long and short on various sets.

    Of course I could be wrong. :)

    I also believe that is the case for release dates, as well as EOL dates, based on experience. A couple of weeks back when in the US, I bought a few (well, 24) Frodo polys from a LDC and happened to have a couple of them in my bag when I visited a Lego Store. I asked the manager whether they had any of the Frodo polys in stock. They told me that they had not been released in the US and wouldn't be for at least six months. I showed him one from my bag, and he questioned me as to how I had got it. He knew I was from the UK (as I also had Team GB with me) and assumed I had brought them in from the UK.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Does anyone remember TLG ever having this many different sets and themes for sale at one time? It's a good thing as someone who enjoys legos; however, I would expect there could be a lot of sets and even themes that go EOL in the next few months. I'm really looking forward to the Black Friday sale this year...
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Just my opinion, but I think they have over saturated the market. Most people can't buy all the sets, so will focus on one or two themes and maybe try to buy most of the sets in the themes they like the most. When you get so many themes and sets I think they compete with each other even more than usual, because a person's money is spread more thin trying to everything they want. It is like the shampoo aisle at Walmart. :-) And, speaking of Walmart, they haven't increased the size of the LEGO aisle where I live, so something has to give. My guess is that WM will buy roughly the same $$ amount of LEGOS as in the past, but buy fewer of each set. Then, try to turn the inventory quicker. They have to sell out of the SW to make room for LOTR, then sell out of LOTR to make room for Friends, get rid of Friends to make room for Ninjago. Just my 2 cents. :-0
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ My understanding is that big box stores like WM, Target, TRU, etc. stock a fairly fixed number of SKUs, and they allow each company a given number of items a year. Walmart's number, unless I'm confused, is about 100 SKUs for TLG.

    Taking out polybags, exclusives, etc. That seems about right, but it probably will vary a bit from their larger superstores to the smaller ones.

    So TLG can't just make an unlimited number of sets and expect stores to stock them all, there just isn't room, or desire on the part of the box stores to even try, which is probably why some sets are everywhere and others are hard to find.

    I agree that there are a ton of good choices. Last year I was able to buy most of what I really wanted, now I will have to just let things go, there is no way to keep up with it all without more space/time/money.

    Monster Fighters, as cool as they are, probably will never enter our home. Just too many other things to buy and collect, so better off ignoring it completely. We will of course get Haunted House, but I see that as a modular, not a MF set.

    Dino is the same way, besides that probably being a one-and-done theme, I did buy two of the sets on discount, but then put them in the "to be sold" pile because we just have no space or time to mess with them. Ditto on all the clearance Atlantis/PQ/AC from after Christmas. I had a complete collection of all those sets from all three lines, and we are not keeping any of them. No room, no time, etc. It really isn't the money in that case, the cost of those sets is pretty minor and it will be awhile before most go up, but I can wait. :)
  • GamerGamer Member Posts: 32
    My Walmart has 7959, 7961, 7962, 7964 all clearance. Are they eol?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Haymarket, VAMember Posts: 1,268
    Gamer said:

    My Walmart has 7959, 7961, 7962, 7964 all clearance. Are they eol?

    No.

  • sadowsk1sadowsk1 Member Posts: 124
    Lego doesn't really like letting people in on what is going to stop selling and when are they? Don't they just stop producing them at some point and just keep selling until they are out?
  • nerick906nerick906 Bristol, UKMember Posts: 428
    #10188 on brickset states that it's eol in USA and Canada !!
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    ^It's on backorder at [email protected], but it's showing an anticipated ship date in early September. I'd be surprised if it's actually EOL.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    nerick906: Brickset is showing that it is out-of-stock, not end-of-life. The LEGO site shows they expect it back in stock 9/6.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    I have noticed that Lego pulled the sale some time ago on their site of quite a few of the Harry Potter sets. Good examples are Hogwarts Express and The Burrow.
    Forgetting Diagon Alley for one moment, which is a special case and may continue for some time, I wonder how long the remainder of the sets will continue to be available, i.e. such as the latest Hogwarts Castle?

    Any thoughts? If no more Harry Potter sets, I would expect this to be a popular after market line, although my interest is more in availability for a long term moc I have planned. My gut feeling is that I should buy up the sets I need asap.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    I'm sure they will still be available for the Black Friday sale and maybe into Christmas, but may be gone in January.
  • RainingBoroSi02RainingBoroSi02 NCMember Posts: 59
    edited August 2012
    richo said:

    I have noticed that Lego pulled the sale some time ago on their site of quite a few of the Harry Potter sets. Good examples are Hogwarts Express and The Burrow.
    Forgetting Diagon Alley for one moment, which is a special case and may continue for some time, I wonder how long the remainder of the sets will continue to be available, i.e. such as the latest Hogwarts Castle?

    Any thoughts? If no more Harry Potter sets, I would expect this to be a popular after market line, although my interest is more in availability for a long term moc I have planned. My gut feeling is that I should buy up the sets I need asap.

    I'm looking to add the Hogwarts castle too, and I am wrestling with when to pick one up. My question is what price I'm going to pay for it.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    There is a damaged box copy at Amazon right now for sale at a discount, direct from Amazon under the "used" section, if anyone wants it...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Yeah, especially I'd he is going to use it as an MOC anyway.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^^ Speaking of damaged boxes. About a month ago I snagged a good deal on a LOTR set on Amazon Whse. The set was listed as used, but like new. I guess it was returned? Don't know how that works. Anyway, when I got it the box was crushed on one end and bent in the middle! The set was trashed. I sent it back, without hassle. It was mangled pretty badly when I got it. And, I sent it back in the crushed box, so it probably got back to Amazon in even worse shape. I wonder what comes of sets like that?
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    ^ I ordered a QAR from Amazon wholesale and it came in near perfect condition. Still sealed and everything. The only blemish was a cut down the center of the box where I assume someone had used a razor to open the shipping box at the warehouse.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Yup, I have gotten several LEGO sets from Amazon Whse. Most were in like new condition. Never understood why they were sold as used, but I'm not gonna complain. :-)
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    edited August 2012
    Basically anything that gets returned back to them is marked as used and is sold via Warehouse Deals. Sometimes they're in great shape, sometimes they're in terrible shape, with the pieces inside opened and in ziplock bags. You just never know. They always include a brief description, but in my experience, it's a crapshoot on just how accurate that is. If you really care about box condition, I would not buy via Warehouse Deals.
  • beabea Member Posts: 227
    Wow, folks have gotten much better condition from awd. Mine have either been opened or look like they were run over. Usually both. If you care about boxes, I'd advise against buying from them.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    I think some of it depends on the age of the set. For example I recently purchased Star Wars Rebel Scout Speeder from AW which has been discontinued for a couple of years now. The description said "like new". When I received the set, the box looked as if it had been torn open on one corner. Thankfully the bricks were still sealed. I didn't really care as I bought it for my son. Typically though "like new" means that the box may have some damage but the contents are still sealed.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I do find it strange that some retailers are already putting LOTR sets on clearance. With some many themes active, the shelf life for a given average set may be a year or less.

    And I did find a Bionicle battle vehicle at a Wally recently - retail price, had a little giggle about it. But yet they had LOTR on clearance. Goofy.
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    ^ Conventional wisdom would state that the reason for all of the LoTR retailer clearance sales is that they just are not selling. Of course, we will never know actual sales numbers.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    The release date on them may have just been too early. I firmly expect interest to pick up with the release of the video game this fall and The Hobbit movie before the end of the year.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Fine by me. After the release if the video game and the first Hobbit movie everyone will want the first wave of LOTR sets and the only way to get them is in the aftermarket.
  • TitusTitus Member Posts: 79
    cloaked7 said:

    ^^ Speaking of damaged boxes. About a month ago I snagged a good deal on a LOTR set on Amazon Whse. The set was listed as used, but like new.

    cloaked7 said:

    ^ Yup, I have gotten several LEGO sets from Amazon Whse.

    Has anybody had experiences with Amazon Warehouse "Used - Good" versus "Used - Like New"? I'm wondering what "good" means to Amazon whse if "Like New" items are arriving all beat up.
    Thanks
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ If you are buying from the Warehouse Deals expect the boxes to be beat up and the pieces sealed in the bags. Of course there can be exceptions, but that is the deal for the most part.
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    @LegoFanTexas, Mindstorms NXT 2.0 is getting a bit hard to find with respect to Bricklink (my favourite place to hunt for Lego) but I was able to get 5 of these from BL alone ($300) with shipping to me. And I have heard from various sources that 8547 is on Lego's exit list. So keep checking BL as I also saw a seller in Denmark selling 2-4 of these for about $210 or so. Obviously seemed fishy. But BL will help getting this one at a good price.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ @Coolspash - You're in Pakistan, which makes life harder than it otherwise could be trying to buy Lego.

    $210 USD for this set is indeed a good price, but once I pay shipping from Denmark to the US, I wouldn't save much, if anything. For some reason, I've found Danish sellers very expensive to buy from regarding shipping. Germany seems to be the best overseas deal on shipping for them most part.

    Of course, since I can buy this delivered for $280 from Amazon any time I want, the deal has to be quite a bit better than that to make any sense. :) In fact, right now Amazon warehouse deals has a like new set, probably just a slightly bruised box, for $243, that is a pretty good deal considering it includes shipping.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Has anyone else noticed that many PQ and Atlantis sets are still for sale @ Amazon? Sheesh, how many of these things are out there?

    Those 50% off deals at Walmart 8 months ago sure don't look as sweet now. ;)
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    Same in UK. Got some heavily discounted Ostrich Race sets only 2 weeks or so back. £6.49 instead of £14.99. Thought would be good for parts, plus it's hard to imagine many future sets coming out that contain an ostrich...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Yes, the PoP sets still haven't passed RRP, now how many years later? They may never.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    I have several hundred Atlantis and PQ sets, figure I'll sell them for nearly break even this Christmas. Ahh the joys of reselling. :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I think AC will be a difficult resell as well. I also not expecting TS to be a great return quickly, except for that Western Train.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    What about Dino? Same thing as AC?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    ^I'll be interested to see where Dino goes. I think the sets themselves are pretty undesirable, but I know the actual dinosaur minifigs do pretty well on their own right now. I'd say worst case scenario is you end up with a bunch of really cheap bricks... provided you don't mind selling off the dinosaurs.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Has anyone else noticed that many PQ and Atlantis sets are still for sale @ Amazon? Sheesh, how many of these things are out there?

    Those 50% off deals at Walmart 8 months ago sure don't look as sweet now. ;)

    I ignored the atlantis and PQ fire sale, for good reason... ;)

    I think Dino will likely do better than AC, if anything due to the more kid friendly nature of the sets. They're dinosaurs! I always felt AC was designed more for what appealed to AFOLs than kids.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    I was never tempted to buy POP, AC or Dino no matter how cheap they were. TS was a big turn off for me, so I avoided that as well. We all try to make educated guesses as to what will do well in the secondary market. Sometimes we make the wrong choices. It happens. What is worse, Not buying as many UCS MF's, CC's, MS's and GG's as we could or being stuck with Lego sets that you may get back what you paid for them eventually?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    :). If nothing else, buying sets for 50% off is a cheap way to build parts.

    Some of those sets have interesting shapes and colors. I might break a few for the parts.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,526
    I got half a dozen of the cheapest Dino set at £3 a box. The dinosaur is worth about that in the UK. I wanted the big leaves that come with the set, and the minifig legs aren't too bad either for MOCs - dark brown hips with dark tan legs, and only available in this one figure. I know you can make them up yourself, but these were cheap enough to not to bother.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited August 2012
    The problem with many of the Atlantis sets (and AC for that matter) are the over abundance of Technic pieces. I bought a couple of them on clearance for parting out and about 75% of the pieces I have no use for. A lot of people don't like the LOTR sets but if you like all shades of bley then they are a really great value.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    LegoFanTexas said:

    :). If nothing else, buying sets for 50% off is a cheap way to build parts.

    It is indeed! I picked up a few of those sets for solely that reason. Same with a bunch of 75% off kmart POTC sets that likely won't appreciate much.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Likely? Maybe the small sets, but the ships and Whitecap Bay will probably do very well. I even think London Escape will do very well because of the soldier and officer minifigures.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    edited August 2012
    ^ yes, the smaller sets. $10-$40 msrp range. If they do go up significantly, great, but I'm not counting on it...
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    POTC ships and higher end sets will definitely do well. The ships, in fact, will surprise many once unavailable via retail. The demand for pirate ships never stops.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    I really don't think it will be a surprise. There are 2 more movies slated and Depp has at least signed on for the 5th. I'm sure this will push these sets in the after market. They also can make the British Ship from the 4th movie.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ...the Flying Dutchman as well
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