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But that being said I would be amazed if FB stayed out there for another year past its 'normal' EOL timeline for previous modular sets.
I would say that most sets that are destined for EOL will be 'sold out' by BF sale, and anything on sale for BF will most likely be going EOL, and they are trying to get rid of spare stock.. That being said there have been times were EOL has occurred but LEGO kept finding more stock (the Pig Farms come to mind)
For example, the first wave of Friends sets is listed as EOL (or rather, last order date) of 12/31/12, the end of this year. Does that mean they are gone for sure? Maybe they'll go in November, maybe they'll be around until next spring. Only TLG really knows.
Also, the EOL lists (that I have seen) don't have the direct sets, the 1xxxx sets on them. So even the dealers have no idea about sets like MMV, DS, FB, etc.
Keep in mind that when most store employees are talking about sets going away, they are thinking of the Lego fan who wants to buy one for themself, not 50 for resale. :) So it is a true statement that if you don't want to miss Fire Brigade, don't wait any longer, buy one as soon as possible, it is likely to just go away one day without warning.
Taking out polybags, exclusives, etc. That seems about right, but it probably will vary a bit from their larger superstores to the smaller ones.
So TLG can't just make an unlimited number of sets and expect stores to stock them all, there just isn't room, or desire on the part of the box stores to even try, which is probably why some sets are everywhere and others are hard to find.
I agree that there are a ton of good choices. Last year I was able to buy most of what I really wanted, now I will have to just let things go, there is no way to keep up with it all without more space/time/money.
Monster Fighters, as cool as they are, probably will never enter our home. Just too many other things to buy and collect, so better off ignoring it completely. We will of course get Haunted House, but I see that as a modular, not a MF set.
Dino is the same way, besides that probably being a one-and-done theme, I did buy two of the sets on discount, but then put them in the "to be sold" pile because we just have no space or time to mess with them. Ditto on all the clearance Atlantis/PQ/AC from after Christmas. I had a complete collection of all those sets from all three lines, and we are not keeping any of them. No room, no time, etc. It really isn't the money in that case, the cost of those sets is pretty minor and it will be awhile before most go up, but I can wait. :)
Forgetting Diagon Alley for one moment, which is a special case and may continue for some time, I wonder how long the remainder of the sets will continue to be available, i.e. such as the latest Hogwarts Castle?
Any thoughts? If no more Harry Potter sets, I would expect this to be a popular after market line, although my interest is more in availability for a long term moc I have planned. My gut feeling is that I should buy up the sets I need asap.
And I did find a Bionicle battle vehicle at a Wally recently - retail price, had a little giggle about it. But yet they had LOTR on clearance. Goofy.
Thanks
$210 USD for this set is indeed a good price, but once I pay shipping from Denmark to the US, I wouldn't save much, if anything. For some reason, I've found Danish sellers very expensive to buy from regarding shipping. Germany seems to be the best overseas deal on shipping for them most part.
Of course, since I can buy this delivered for $280 from Amazon any time I want, the deal has to be quite a bit better than that to make any sense. :) In fact, right now Amazon warehouse deals has a like new set, probably just a slightly bruised box, for $243, that is a pretty good deal considering it includes shipping.
Those 50% off deals at Walmart 8 months ago sure don't look as sweet now. ;)
I think Dino will likely do better than AC, if anything due to the more kid friendly nature of the sets. They're dinosaurs! I always felt AC was designed more for what appealed to AFOLs than kids.
Some of those sets have interesting shapes and colors. I might break a few for the parts.