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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • MatthewMatthew Cheshire, UKAdministrator Posts: 3,735
    I haven't got an EN or a DS yet. I'm really not sure I can afford a Death Star at the moment, but I'm considering an EN. Where's the cheapest in the UK? I am getting a Hogwarts Express on clearance though. Does anyone want just the engine? Send me a message if so.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @Matthew Emerald Night is being retired, so if you are going to grab it, do so very quickly - before the end of the month at the latest would be my advice. I think they will be gone by then.

    Hogwart's Express has been very hard to come by recently - cool to hear you got one on discount!
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    Yes the EN is going quick on Amazon, down to about 320 or so, I just picked up 2 more. I was going to wait until 12-25 and see if they went on sale but they wont last that long.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    The art of balancing one's lego hobby might a good topic for a book. I'd buy one...and probably never resell it. ;-)
  • allmybricksallmybricks Member Posts: 156
    DS 10188 back in stock and shipping now from [email protected] So much for that late December ship date. MMV 10193 is back as well.

    I bought (2) more EN 10194 today from Amazon... they are selling about 100 a day so I think it'll barely last through Sunday.
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Ohio USAMember Posts: 357
    If MMV and DS are still available after x-mas and on sale day after x-mas I am going to pick up 2 of each and hold onto.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    If DS is coming out in the 2012 catalog, I doubt you'll see it on sale after xmas.
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Ohio USAMember Posts: 357
    If DS is coming out in the 2012 catalog, I doubt you'll see it on sale after xmas.
    True, guess we'll have to wait until the next one to find out. Plus, I don't see Lego having 2 $400 dollar sets for the same line for a long time.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Lego just restocked Death Star, if Amazon restocks it, then it is probably staying. Which sucks for people like me, but is great for everyone else. :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    Patience Danielson.
  • kylejohnson11kylejohnson11 Member Posts: 508
    @LegoFanTexas with LEGO restocking, I'm guessing you'll be selling and stocking up on Emerald Nights to purchase more Death Stars next year?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @kylejohnson11 - actually, I probably have as many EM as I want, I've got 10 of them I think in the closet, that is enough for me, to have more really eats up space and risks turning this into a business, which I don't want to do.

    I do have several new sets that just arrived... my wife loves that they are in front of the fireplace, but I keep telling her that they are all sold out, or soon to be sold out and will be gone soon. :)
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @LegoFanTexas - be sure to keep those matches away from your wife! It may be too tempting for her to shove them 2 inches into the fireplace! :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    :)

    She supports me in all things, even the crazy ones... :)

    Ok, ok, I broke down and bought 5 more EM from Amazon last night... Sheesh... At least that one we know is now retired...

    Will someone start a LA program with me?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    @LegoFanTexas, I think you're gonna be sitting on a lot of your sets for awhile. As in a few years. It takes about 2-3 years for Amazon and eBay quantities to dwindle, forcing the higher 200-300% price points we all love. This is across the board usually. Find a good spot in the basement, and mark them, "Open in 2014".
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @LegoFanTexas Only 209 Emerald Nights left. I'll likely buy another before the day is out. I do dream of opening them all and creating one long train!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I do have several new sets that just arrived... my wife loves that they are in front of the fireplace, but I keep telling her that they are all sold out, or soon to be sold out and will be gone soon. :)</blockquote

    Fireplaces are overrated anyway... Our Christmas tree is in front of ours with lots of wrapped lego presents for the kiddos. ;-)

    I did notice your technic crane (8053), which is now sold out. I am very happy that I snagged one for $69.99 at the ZON before they sold out. As an engineer, I've always been a sucker for technics. If I could work for TLG, I would want to focus on designing technic sets or train sets. Alas, I work somewhere else and get to focus on just purchasing the technic sets and train sets. Oh well...you can't have everything...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064
    I do have several new sets that just arrived... my wife loves that they are in front of the fireplace, but I keep telling her that they are all sold out, or soon to be sold out and will be gone soon. :)
    I was kinda hoping that the Technic crane would sell out online before LEGO's massive Holiday sale because those Front loaders were going for under 40 at the sale...
    I got a few on a BOGO because I figured those would be worth it (technic cranes usually do pretty well)
    City Camper and City Corner are also sold out at LEGO
  • DavidRod8DavidRod8 Member Posts: 143
    Why is everybody buying the EN at amazon? Target has them for the same price, also free shipping, and if you use ebates, you get 3% back... if you use discover, you get 10% back... seems to me like a much better deal there....
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064
    ^----Not everyone has discover card or an ebates account (and do not want to sign up for one), and there is tax. No Tax at amazon, which pretty much negates most of the saving you may get at Target
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @DavidRod8 I just got all excited, but then remembered the sales tax. YES, it does work out $1.50 cheaper even with tax, but then I have to wait for the Discover dollars to come through, etc. Nice idea though. Thanks.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064
    ^---Well that and, after thinking about it, it is a good alternative for those who have an Amazon presence in their state, which means tax applies
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Another benefit to Amazon is their sales history, easy to use web site, easy returns for any reason, etc.

    A downside to Amazon is that they tend to destroy a lot of Lego in the mail because they don't know how to box them properly. I've had to return a lot of Lego sets for smashed product boxes. I guess the average parent doesn't care, they open the set and throw the box away, but if I'm buying 5 EMs, yea I care. :)

    Hmm, maybe Target is better, they tend to get stuff here in once piece.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064
    ^-- all places ship poorly.. I have had boxes from Target that look like they went through a masher...
    It all depends on the shipping company.. I find that boxes from Lego tend to get to me in pretty good condition using Fed Ex, but when they were using DHL.. good grief...
  • DavidRod8DavidRod8 Member Posts: 143
    Didn't think about the tax... One thing I do like about amazon is that it lets you use your discover cash back, so I was able to apply that to my order... Got 5 from them instead of target... down to 162... I guess once they sell out @ amazon, people will buy them from Target... I won't be getting anymore until the 26th....
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064
    ^--- Agreed.. Amazon will be out, and any other store that may have them will be out shortly there after....
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    Didn't Amazon have like 600 EMs just a week ago? This thread should be merged into the "tulip-mania" thread. Sounds to me like there are going to be several hundred EMs (just from Amazon) sitting in people's closet. Not sure that's going to help the after market value much.

    (okay, okay, so I just bought two - darn you Brickset!!!)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Yes, Amazon did, but keep in mind that Amazon only allows each customer to buy 5, so it isn't like 2 people bought them all.

    Granted, many people bought 2 or 3 to resell, but I'll bet a few hundred were sold to parents and will get built.

    There will probably be a 6 month bubble where everyone is trying to unload their sets, before the price jumps. Next Christmas should be where it gets good.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Wow - only 109 left! These will be gone in the next couple hours. And with that, I am off to buy another! :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    A downside to Amazon is that they tend to destroy a lot of Lego in the mail because they don't know how to box them properly. I've had to return a lot of Lego sets for smashed product boxes. I guess the average parent doesn't care, they open the set and throw the box away, but if I'm buying 5 EMs, yea I care. :)
    AMEN!!! I've actually compared Lego and Zon shipping boxes to see the difference because Zon boxes always arrive crunched on the sides. If you notice the construction of each respective company's box, the sides on Amazon's boxes are easier to push in because they rely on a good "tape job" around the bottom to the sides. TLG's boxes are constructed in a way that only requires tape on the botton; not the sides. Hence, it is more difficult to collapse in the sides of a lego shipping box than it is a Zon shipping box.

    Conclusions:

    1) Even though Lego went to a lower quality shipping box this year, they are still a lot more sturdy than what Amazon uses.
    2) It's sad than a near-middle aged man (me) is even writing about this.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    84 left on Emerald Night. Heading out to TRU now to see if the new super heroes line is in stock.

    What are everyones thoughts on the retirement value of the Hoth battle packs. These are slated for retirement, but I have seen discounts on these for a looooooooong time, and stores always have tons of stock.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    47 left... ;) That only took 30 minutes...
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    15 Emerald Nights left. (I just bought another. Honestly, I'm not bragging, I feel like I need to be honest about my addiction though!)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064
    ^--- beat me to the count... what would be funny would be if Amazon then lists another 1000 like the DS...lol
    But my guess is this will be it (I got a few more...couldn't resist)
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @madforlegos It seems a few people in this forum are counting on LEGO Stores having them on Dec 26th, and on sale for 50%. That may be the case, but like Grand Carrousels last year, the few they had in stock when in seconds of the store opening.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064
    They can dream I guess.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 4,866
    They were 25% Off on Black Friday. Why didn't everyone just buy them then with the extra 10% or more off? I got one for $60 at the LEGO Store on BF...probably should have got more. ;o)
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @Yellowcastle I could only find one on Black Friday, otherwise I would have grabbed more! All told, I now have 6 unopened, and 1 already built. That (I think) is my limit, unless they turn up 50% off on Dec 26th somewhere.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I bought the 10 my store had on brick Friday, these 5 sets at 90 I just figure dollar cost average with those... :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064
    edited December 2011
    They were 25% Off on Black Friday. Why didn't everyone just buy them then with the extra 10% or more off? I got one for $60 at the LEGO Store on BF...probably should have got more. ;o)
    I did get two on Black Friday, but I barely got those online and no way was I trying to get up at 4am to get to the store by me, as I was not even sure if they had any before the sale in the store....

    I am guessing many people have the same situation, if they got any at all.. and I think the majority of buyers now are speculators.. you will see them on eBay with 10-20 available... and lord knows how many speculators bought out LEGO.com on Thursday night...
    Not to mention people that bought 10 at a store which stops others from getting them.... ;-)
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 4,866
    I didn't get to my LEGO Store until 1pm on BF and the crowds were fine. Additionally, they still had plenty of everything.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064
    edited December 2011

    There will probably be a 6 month bubble where everyone is trying to unload their sets, before the price jumps. Next Christmas should be where it gets good.
    I think it will be longer than a year to be honest...
    Saw this with the Hobby train and that set took a while just to hit 150.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    The one thing I like about Emerald Night is that it is a beautiful LEGO set if there ever was one. Something like Hobby Train was cool, but it does look like a lot of other LEGO trains, including the Red Cargo Train. But nothing else looks remotely like Emerald Night, not to mention the exclusive pieces that are in that set.

    When I see something like Grand Carousel going for a 300% markup a year later - a set that was expensive to begin with, and not in the grand tradition of a line like LEGO trains, I just can't help but feel Emerald Night will always be held up as a classic LEGO product - a high mark for them.

    That's just me maybe. I will say that I definitely find myself "investing" in sets that I genuinely enjoy. I couldn't buy 7 of a set I didn't like, even for "investment" purposes.

    Thanks all!
    -Dan
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064
    ^--- True True....
    Also the Emerald Night is down to 8 at Amazon
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    The EN and IF are two sets that are instant classics imo, and combining the beauty of the EN with the original "low" price point...I could definitely see a 200% jump in a relatively short time.

    My .03
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    Ok, I broke down and bought another EN when Amazon was down to 8 left in stock, brings me to 3 total, 1 to build, 1 to keep MNIB, and one to resell.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Emerald Nights are all gone at Amazon. Whew. Maybe I can sleep tonight, free of the temptation to buy yet another one! :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Yep, an hour ago they were $90, now they are $116, and I suspect that won't last long either since Christmas sales will keep it going.

    I suspect we'll be at $150 by the end of this year. But I could be wrong. :)

    Anyone want to take over/under on that number?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064
    ^-- They are 116 because Amazon sold out, the 116 is an Amazon authorized seller (or whatever they call them) and not Amazon.
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    I think also that EN will be at least 150.00 by the end of the year. There have already been sold auctions on Ebay for 125.00 plus shipping and that was before they were sold out on Amazon. I think EN will be at 225.00 one year from now. Hopefully. The rest of the Amazon sellers also will now raise their prices since Amazon is out of stock.
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