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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • idolo82idolo82 Banned Posts: 5
    I read for 1 hour but i didn't find my answers...can you help me? :)
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @idolo82 Most of what you have here are educated guesses, and oftentimes, it is difficult to predict exactly what LEGO will do. 10193 and 10188 are notoriously overdue for retirement based on LEGO tradition, and yet, they are still being produced. Fire Brigade seems to be bucking the trend too.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    @brickupdate, You are giving LFT way too much credit ;)
  • idolo82idolo82 Banned Posts: 5
    thank you very much @brickupdate for your answer...
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    @brickupdate
    -Such a softy.
  • ViereViere Member Posts: 12
    FatMatt said:

    @brickupdate
    -Such a softy.

    Lol

  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    idolo82 said:

    I read for 1 hour but i didn't find my answers...can you help me? :)

    There are no answers. If we knew the answers, the title of this thread wouldn't be 'Predictions...'
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I think I'm going to cry ;(
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Bandit said:

    idolo82 said:

    I read for 1 hour but i didn't find my answers...can you help me? :)

    There are no answers. If we knew the answers, the title of this thread wouldn't be 'Predictions...'
    Best reply of the day... :)
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    @Bandit. Very nice.

    Maybe we should start charging for comments on this thread. LOL
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    What would everyone say the most unpredicted EOL from the past several years was?

    I think i read somewhere that the VW beetle only lasted a year?, does anyone know the reason behind that one?
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    #8403 City House and #3222 Helicopter and Limousine were about the shortest lived ones I can remember. Seems like they were only out for a few months. At least in the U.S. Both were exclusives (Target and Walmart respectively). But being an exclusive doesn't necessarily mean short life - #8092 Landspeeder for example.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    The EOL of CMF Series 1 was pretty much unpredicted.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I picked up the City House in a whim. I picked up a box of CMF Series 1 the day it arrived. The City House and Series 1 were gone in a blink if an eye.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    ^^^ I still need to get my hands on a darn #3222.
  • timinchicagotiminchicago Member Posts: 239
    #7189 MVR only lasted about 6 months or so.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    sidersdd said:

    #8403 City House and #3222 Helicopter and Limousine were about the shortest lived ones I can remember. Seems like they were only out for a few months. At least in the U.S. Both were exclusives (Target and Walmart respectively). But being an exclusive doesn't necessarily mean short life - #8092 Landspeeder for example.

    Walmart's other exclusive #7868 lasted a mere 5 months in the US. Crazy!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ And then clearanced for 50% off after Christmas... :)

    The 30 some odd copies I picked up for $20 each, should do well this coming Christmas. ;)
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    ^I've just about sold all of mine at $49. I'm pretty pleased with that given the turnaround time.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    I got two for $10 each a year ago. The only MISB set I own.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    pharmjod said:

    ^I've just about sold all of mine at $49. I'm pretty pleased with that given the turnaround time.

    That is a great ROI in just 8 months... :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Like I said before, I'm very surprised MVR is not doing as well as I thought it would.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    As far as City House, someone in another discussion was complaining that the Modular Houses just won't fit in with his Classic Town display. He Saud Lego needs to make Classic style City Houses and I said they did. It just wasn't around long enough for anyone to notice and way overpriced.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Pitfall69 said:

    Like I said before, I'm very surprised MVR is not doing as well as I thought it would.

    MVR has been available from B&N and a few other places well into the summer, I think B&N only sold out in June or July.

    That is why it hasn't gone up yet... Give it until Christmas, should be around $150 then.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^^ City House could be purchased on sale a few times, but yes, it was always expensive for what it is...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Ahhhh. I see.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I know I got City House for 50% off, but I can't remember if MVR was 50% or 20%? I'm thinking 20%, but I still got 2.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    City House at 50% off is a good deal, but then almost any Lego set at 50% off is a good deal. :)

    Usually...

    MVR at 50% is a screaming deal, I'll take 2! Even 20% off is not bad, I picked up a few more copies from B&N a month or two ago, just before it went out, using member coupon codes and gift cards, I figure that will do nicely come Christmas.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Yeah, any Lego set for 50% is a great deal...even the not so popular ones. I have no use for City House, so that's going on the block. EBay has sales of around $80.
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 Member Posts: 1,431
    So.. for you resellers... is everything you buy just for resale? (not including those sets you buy to build and display) or do you also keep some of those sets (even MVR and MMV) and open them for the parts, etc.?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited August 2012
    I imagine Most of us sell Lego to fund our hobby. Some of us do that and more. I don't think any of us strickly sell Lego and that's it.
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    ^ I consider myself a collector, a set builder, a MOC builder, and a reseller.

    I buy some items just to collect - mostly LEGO exclusives, rare items, etc. I don't plan to open these.

    I buy a variety of sets to just build and either play with the kids or place on display.

    I buy a lot of sets when they first are released (Star Wars, Super Heroes, LotR), sell the minifigs, and then keep the parts. It's usually parts for free at that point. These parts are used for MOCs.

    I buy a lot of sets for resale after EOL. This helps fund other LEGO purchases.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    Like I said before, I'm very surprised MVR is not doing as well as I thought it would.

    MVR has been available from B&N and a few other places well into the summer, I think B&N only sold out in June or July.

    That is why it hasn't gone up yet... Give it until Christmas, should be around $150 then.
    Yeah, I waited too long to pull the trigger on those at b&n, thinking they'd last forever i suppose, and I missed out on the set altogether for my collection. Anyone who has a stash and wants to sell me one for anything close to msrp, let me know. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Funny how that happens. I did the same with IF. Oh, and when IS and MMV EOL's you will get a few people saying that they missed out on them.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Bandit said:

    LegoFanTexas said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    Like I said before, I'm very surprised MVR is not doing as well as I thought it would.

    MVR has been available from B&N and a few other places well into the summer, I think B&N only sold out in June or July.

    That is why it hasn't gone up yet... Give it until Christmas, should be around $150 then.
    Yeah, I waited too long to pull the trigger on those at b&n, thinking they'd last forever i suppose, and I missed out on the set altogether for my collection. Anyone who has a stash and wants to sell me one for anything close to msrp, let me know. :)
    MVR can still be bought for about MSRP on Bricklink.
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    Does anyone foresee the Black Pearl and QAR going on clearance sale at [email protected]? I missed out on the Walmart sales and want snag these two before EOL. If so, when do you think? Black Friday? They are still available in the US store and surprisingly none of the POTC sets have been discounted yet.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Who knows... I wouldn't think so, those should sell just fine at normal price, but they did discount IF by 25% so it is possible.

    If they do, they won't last long, that is for sure... So you better be watching every day.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^Rub it in :(
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I see Minecraft has cooled down alot.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Rub it in :(

    Did you know that IF could be purchased for a net of about $125 on Black Friday?

    Pretty cool, huh? ;)

    *ducks*

    Don't feel bad, in 2010 I walked right by GG and TM, having no idea I'd care, and ended up spending almost $1,500 to buy both of them a year later. So we've all been there. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Yes, it happens to the best of us.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited August 2012
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Rub it in :(

    Did you know that IF could be purchased for a net of about $125 on Black Friday?

    Pretty cool, huh? ;)

    *ducks*

    Don't feel bad, in 2010 I walked right by GG and TM, having no idea I'd care, and ended up spending almost $1,500 to buy both of them a year later. So we've all been there. :)
    Did you know 10179 could be purchased for $250 when KB was going under? :D

    Edit: TM. Taj Mahal. Got it.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Taj Mahal
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    y2josh said:


    Did you know 10179 could be purchased for $250 when KB was going under? :D

    Yes, more than one person here has told me about that, makes me feel *so* much better paying $1,500 for my copy. ;)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    LegoFanTexas said:

    y2josh said:


    Did you know 10179 could be purchased for $250 when KB was going under? :D

    Yes, more than one person here has told me about that, makes me feel *so* much better paying $1,500 for my copy. ;)
    Well, if it makes you feel any better, when I was picking mine up, I opted not to order a second because I thought, "What would I ever do with two of those?"
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ I completely understand that feeling. :)

    How little did we know...
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    LegoFanTexas said:

    y2josh said:


    Did you know 10179 could be purchased for $250 when KB was going under? :D

    Yes, more than one person here has told me about that, makes me feel *so* much better paying $1,500 for my copy. ;)
    I should have £800 saved by the end of this month, only another £7-800 to go :( LOL
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    With all this talk of sets we missed out on, I would like to know what gems that everyone should have in their collection, and the likelihood the sets still will retain their value or even get more expensive to own. I know that's a lot. I said before I "missed the boat" on IF and should have gotten it when it was on "sail".
  • idolo82idolo82 Banned Posts: 5
    i managed to call a LEGO AGENT by my fried that is a LEGO seller, he sent only toys for kids and hasn't rare set in his store.
    He gived me this number and i called the agent, he told me that the sets 10188 and 10212 will stop their production in november surely. I hope :) I will buy them asap :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ For current sets...

    10212 - Imperial Shuttle - is a clear winner, in my opinion... It should do very well, just look at the current part out cost on Bricklink, that set is under priced for the value of the parts included.

    10217 - Diagon Alley - This set just strikes me as iconic, it is large, detailed, and can be modified for almost any castle type setting

    10193 - MMV - This one has been talked about to death, but it remains one of the best deals Lego offers

    10188 - Death Star - What an amazing set, not to be duplicated I think for a long time. The minifigs, the detail, the play features, all for a reasonable per part price

    2507 - Fire Temple - Ninjas, Dragons, etc. what more do you want? On a price per part basis, this set remains the best deal in Ninjago, it comes with both a dragon and a temple for the same price as the new large dragon all by itself.

    7965 - Millennium Falcon - While of course not as detailed as UCS Falcon, it is also a manageable size and playable, with a good interior and it is swooshable! I think a lot of people are taking this one for granted, when it goes, it should double in price very quickly.

    10214 - Tower Bridge - People didn't seem to stock up on Taj Mahal, and it has tripled in price in just 18 months since retirement. This set is iconic, it will never be done again, it is very detailed, and reasonably priced at just over 5 cents a part. Clearly this set will do very well.

    10231 - Shuttle Expedition - Another set not on people's radar, this one will be missed when it retires, and probably never be done again. Great for kids and adults alike.

    10220 - Volkswagen T1 Camper Van - A set that I don't hear mentioned much, but this one is much better than the old Beetle, my wife built this set and it is very nice, detailed and it really captures that old-school feel.

    10197 - Fire Brigade - same situation as MMV and DS, almost around too long, but it is iconic, detailed, and one of the better values in the series. When this retires, it will be missed when the Police HQ comes out in a few years.

    3182 - Airport - I don't recall this set being talked about once in this thread, but I think this one will double in retirement - The airplane is big and colorful, and it will be a few years before Lego does another one.

    8403 - Motorized Excavator - Just look at what the Motorized Bulldozer is going for.

    Those are my current thoughts, will be interesting to look back in a few years and see what came true.
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