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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited August 2012
    I noticed that all the Lego sets that contain Batman were moved from their Lego space and put with the Dark Knight toys. So, you are saying Lego dictated that Walmart do this?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    If TLG wanted that done, they could have simply asked Walmart to do it, or paid them for the shelf space.

    Or perhaps Walmart decided to do it, or perhaps your local store decided to do it on their own.
  • CyborgCyborg Member Posts: 4
    Wasn't Medieval Market Village supposed to have been sold out or discontinued a while ago? Just wondering as I remember seeing predictions around a year ago that it would be discontiunued.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Yes, MMV is well past its "use by date".

    But here it is, still selling... Go figure... none of us can figure that one out either, the Castle theme was retired in 2010, so MMV has stayed way past its welcome.

    In fact, a whole replacement line has come and gone, Kingdoms, since then...
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    It's "almost" humorous the number of times in the past couple years we thought, "this is it, it's finally retiring!" If we all just pretend like it will be here forever, then we can act surprised when it finally does go.

    There will still be people when it retires who thought they had more time and just missed getting it too.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Yes, and of course people coming out of their dark ages just as it retires, not knowing they should care.

    That happened to me in 2010, with all the great sets back then, Taj Mahal, Green Grocer, etc. Had no idea I should even care at the time.

    Funny thing is, based on the newer 13 cent per part price that the Summer 2012 wave is coming out at, MMV becomes a $200 set. In fairness, Helm's Deep is more 10 cents a part, so at that price, MMV is $160.

    If you can get them for under $100, what a deal. :)

    Assuming of course it isn't around until Kingdoms returns in 2016!!!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,755
    I also think that MMV has a lot of playability.. You get a town setting, with a bunch of 'smaller' play sets/buildings, and a few soldiers to boot. It fits with almost any medieval set out there and can even work with LoTR and I presume the Hobbit sets when released. Plus it works with the Jousting set... Again like LFT says it is a really good deal for parts, then again many of those are I think are 1x1 and 1x2 brick.. so I guess it is all relative. plus you could always use it as a 'Ren-fair' for your city layout :-)
    Now what I find surprising is that 7189 did not stay out longer than about, what, 6-8 months before being discontinued as it was another set along the vein of MMV....
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I have been so caught up in when MMV and IS are being EOL'd and the new Winter Gillian Cottage that I forgot to ask when 8097 Slave I was EOL'd...or was it?
  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    I stopped seeing Slave 1 on shelves very early in the year around me.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    edited August 2012
    ^^ lol 8097 EOL'd at the end of 2011. Inventories were basically exhausted by March...

    Already doubled in price from what it last sold on amazon for...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Wow. I'm totally out of it. I remember seeing it not too long ago at TRU. Ok...thanks :)
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    TRU still has it listed on their site, available in stores only. There must be 1 store left out there somewhere in the sticks with a few left in the back or something.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Maybe that's what I saw subconsciously.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    edited August 2012
    Monster Fighters is likely getting a Cartoon Network series. It's not "one and done."

    And Cars isn't selling poorly. It continues in 2013 and will likely become a mainstay as LEGO wants to maintain a presence in the second highest grossing film franchise line in the country.

    The quicker EOLs for these sets are perfectly in line with the quicker EOLs for most license toy products.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    edited August 2012
    ^TLG seems to be learning a lot from the meteoric success of (most of) Ninjago; they would be remiss not to follow the same path with Monster Fighters, which by all accounts is already very successful. Is it just me, or does the quality of some sets from themes written off by AFOLs (Destiny's Bounty, Haunted House, Samurai Mech, etc) seem to promise a wider buying audience than predicted before we saw these sets? I know that when I heard about Monster Fighters I thought I'd just sleep through it, but I'm very impressed thus far.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I love the Haunted House. To tell you the truth, I'm going to buy this for my daughter and fix it up into a nice house. It looks like a miniture doll house.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    ^So no Frankenstein in the doll house?

    I replicated Olivia's House without the garden in the front from my own stock. And switched the colors. My daughter quickly got over the red replacement for pink/purple swatches.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Amazon's got a nice price off the Lighthouse ($32) right now. For those that aren't lucky enough to snag these for $25 at clearance - I find a lot of value in this set, that's headed out the door.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    I know many (myself included) have commented on the low potential of 7964 (Republic Frigate), but what do we feel like that potential looks like if you're only spending $80 to begin with?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ I think you need to double your money to make a venture worth it. Highly doubt this set will hit $160 anytime soon. There's a lot of Star Wars examples where after two or three years they are just at RRP. Can you say Republic Cruiser?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I agree, if you don't double your money then it is not worth it.
  • roxioroxio Member Posts: 1,383
    Pitfall69 said:

    I agree, if you don't double your money then it is not worth it.

    I would have to disagree on the grounds that this is too much of a blanket statement. I do a lot of reselling in my spare time and make decent profits but I don't bank on having to double my money.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    fWell, I was banking on someone commenting on my statement. I was getting ready to eat at a restaurant and couldn't elaborate. Obviously, if you spend $400 on a set and you sell it for $600, you made a good profit. If you spend $50 on a set and only sell it for $70, is it really worth your effort?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ...just to elaborate more, the conversation was about 7964 and about that doubling in the future :) If it doesn't and you have to get rid of it at around $110, is it really worth tying up $80 for a year or even 2 to make $30 minus eBay and PayPal fees?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Pitfall69 said:

    ...just to elaborate more, the conversation was about 7964 and about that doubling in the future :) If it doesn't and you have to get rid of it at around $110, is it really worth tying up $80 for a year or even 2 to make $30 minus eBay and PayPal fees?

    Yes, if you can do enough of them...

    100 sets would be $3,000 profit.

    $3,000 profit in 2 years on a $8,000 investment is almost 20% per year. That is not a bad return on investment for something that just has to sit in storage.

    This being said, there are better Lego investments than this, but your example isn't terrible.

    Doing one of them is a waste of time, doing lots and lots of them is not. :)

    Keep in mind that TLG probably doesn't have a 20% overall profit margin on their sets, so they are perfectly happy making less, they just make it up in volume.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,534
    I think the problems with the Frigate are one, it is not a memorable or iconic ship and two, the figures are ones most people are not scrambling to get. I would wait to 50% off or better if trying to make money off of reselling this one.
  • roxioroxio Member Posts: 1,383
    Bumblepants said:

    I think the problems with the Frigate are one, it is not a memorable or iconic ship and two, the figures are ones most people are not scrambling to get. I would wait to 50% off or better if trying to make money off of reselling this one.

    Exactly, UK rrp £102.99, but has been available this past week for £35
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    LegoFanTexas said:



    Doing one of them is a waste of time, doing lots and lots of them is not. :)

    If you pick this up with a regular purchase, so don't spend any extra time getting it, then surely selling 50 is almost 50x more work than selling one. OK, you don't have to write the listing each time. But the packaging, shipping it, etc is all multipled by the number sold and you are unlikely to shift more than one unit to each buyer.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    That was going to be my next example, but we have discussed this before. I would rather make a big profit on one item than the same overall profit selling and packing multiple items.
  • jadeirenejadeirene Member Posts: 474
    @CCC, I'm sure LFT can be more specific (since I've never sold on Amazon), but I think if you put one listing up on Amazon and just ship them the entire amount, Amazon will ship out all the orders. You'll lose a bit on the initial shipment to Amazon, but you'll never have to worry about shipping out individual orders and you can charge a bit more since most buyers will be getting the free shipping through Amazon. (For Amazon sellers, please correct me if I'm wrong.)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Pitfall69 said:

    That was going to be my next example, but we have discussed this before. I would rather make a big profit on one item than the same overall profit selling and packing multiple items.

    I agree with you completely, if I had to pack and ship every order... :)

    But I don't, each shipment costs me a specific amount of money in labor, but since it isn't my labor, it is just an expense.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    edited August 2012
    jadeirene said:

    @CCC, I'm sure LFT can be more specific (since I've never sold on Amazon), but I think if you put one listing up on Amazon and just ship them the entire amount, Amazon will ship out all the orders. You'll lose a bit on the initial shipment to Amazon, but you'll never have to worry about shipping out individual orders and you can charge a bit more since most buyers will be getting the free shipping through Amazon. (For Amazon sellers, please correct me if I'm wrong.)

    You are referring to the FBA program...

    There are benefits to it, but you give up a lot of control as well. For example, customers can return your Lego sets to Amazon for a full refund, with no restocking fee, even after opening them, even if they just change their mind.

    Think about that risk for a few minutes... :)

    I do use Amazon for some higher value sets, 10179 is a good example of a set that gets more money there than it does on eBay. But I ship those myself, I would never let Amazon touch that with a ten foot pole.

    Amazon is a very different sales venue to eBay. It can be a good one, but the rules are not the same as eBay. For example, there is no such thing as "no returns" on Amazon. You MUST take anything back within 30 days, for any reason, or no reason. If the customer opens it, you can charge a 20% restocking fee, but really, will that help with opened retired Lego sets?

    Amazon is a volume seller's game... You need volume to absorb the returns and losses.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    a
    Pitfall69 said:

    That was going to be my next example, but we have discussed this before. I would rather make a big profit on one item than the same overall profit selling and packing multiple items.

    And if you're paying the taxes that you should on each sale, it becomes even more important either to sell for a large nominal profit or sell in large volumes given the bite that it takes.

  • sadowsk1sadowsk1 Member Posts: 124
    Pitfall69 said:

    fWell, I was banking on someone commenting on my statement. I was getting ready to eat at a restaurant and couldn't elaborate. Obviously, if you spend $400 on a set and you sell it for $600, you made a good profit. If you spend $50 on a set and only sell it for $70, is it really worth your effort?

    I consider these costs when I resell a set and for me it always breaks down into. I figure it's always worth the effort if I can make more than I'm making hourly at work. I'm essentially playing with Lego and getting paid for it which is pretty sweet for me.
  • j0rdantay10rj0rdantay10r Member Posts: 9
    Bandit said:

    TRU still has it listed on their site, available in stores only. There must be 1 store left out there somewhere in the sticks with a few left in the back or something.

    Actually, it was 2.

    You guys aren't going to believe this but I stopped in the Hickory, NC ToysRUs while travelling through. I was on the way to the checkout counter when the Slave 1 caught my eye on a display up at the front. This is usually where they have some discounted discontinued sets so I started to get a bit excited. There was no price so I picked it up and asked the lady if she could scan it. $89.99. I thought this was a bit steep but knew this would be a good pick up. And there was another right behind it...so I took both!

    As I was checking out, I couldn't help but chuckle because I remembered reading this post earlier in the week. Sure enough, now that I'm home I tried to pull this up on the TRU website and it isn't coming up anymore (at least for me). This makes me think I bought the last two set available in America!

  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    ^ My TRU has 3 or 4 MVR and some City of Atlantis. Right there with Jabbas Palace and Alien Conquest. If the MVRs weren't $80 I might have picked them up by now.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Yes, it was just a random thought for me.

    @sadowsk1, I wish I could make as much selling Legos than what I make "hourly" I make $70 for every 50 mins I work.
  • khmellymelkhmellymel Member Posts: 1,313
    ^ I think it really must depend on income, or what your time is worth (to you). For me, selling even small purchases for smallish profit works, because it funds my LEGO hobby. Can't justify spending student loan money on LEGO! But even a £5 or £10 profit every now and again will help me save for a set. When I wasn't a student and received regular paychecks, I was much pickier at what I'd resell :).
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Does anyone think im insane that im thinking about saving up to buy a sealed 10179 only to open it and build it? xD

    Ive wanted the set since i first seen it, a shame the prices are so ridiculous but so be it:(

    I just cant see my Lego collection being a good one without it! :)

  • KanohiKanohi Member Posts: 41
    ^ I would think a good percentage of those being purchased are opened and built. I myself am saving up little by little to do the same.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Kanohi said:

    ^ I would think a good percentage of those being purchased are opened and built. I myself am saving up little by little to do the same.

    Even at the price its at now its still worth it IMO, it truly is a one off and i certainly can't ever see any future Lego sets matching its sheer epicness :)
  • berniebondberniebond Member Posts: 137
    I am thinking of saving up for buying one used around 1100 euro, building it, and then selling it again. But i am probably gonna have a hard time parting with it...
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    For some reason i prefer not to buy second hand sets, the reason being i just love being the first person to build a brand new freshly opened set, i know that once ive built it, it just becomes another used set but that set is my OWN used set and nobody else's :D
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I get that. Nothing like opening up a new Lego set.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks Member Posts: 1,367
    Yeah, I completely see the appeal of being able to be the first person to use the bricks. Vintage sets I've picked up have been way too labor intensive to get ready to go. I always want to inventory and clean the bricks first, which is time consuming.
  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 417
    I'm avoiding all used sets older than 2009. Bought the very first A-wing used and the stickers were so brittle they cracked.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Eventually all stickers will crack unless you keep your Legos in optimum conditions, but I here what you are saying.
  • tvihtvih Member Posts: 92
    Legofanscott said:

    For some reason i prefer not to buy second hand sets, the reason being i just love being the first person to build a brand new freshly opened set, i know that once ive built it, it just becomes another used set but that set is my OWN used set and nobody else's :D

    Very true, exactly how I feel. And it's gone as far as not wanting to mix parts between even my new sets, let alone the new and the old (childhood) ones. Ugh! :)

    Speaking of MVR, I picked up a couple discounted extras some weeks back. Not really sure why, or what I'll do with them. A lot of the parts selection isn't that easy to use for MOC I'm planning or such, and not that much aftermarket sales in Finland for retired sets I think.
  • idolo82idolo82 Banned Posts: 5
    wich sets will be discontinued this fall?
    I heard in november Maersk train, Millenium Falcon, Backery
    In genuary Fire Brigade...
    Anyone can help me? sets 10193 and 10188?
    Thanks to everybody
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Read through the comments...good luck.

    "Nobody goes over my bridge" - The Grumpy Old "Troll"
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