Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

hoyatables

I love that the number of comments is "5.1k" rather than the full number. Here's to hoping that if we hit 1 million the numbers will be in exponential form!

y2josh

^^It's a blanket topic that encompasses a lot of different things and is also useful to a lot of different interests. It's also a topic that never goes out of date, as the subject matter is self-sustaining.

Short answer... no.

Pitfall69

164.4k have viewed this thread, which tells me people aren't bothering to put their 2 cents in.

Pitfall69

^That's ok though. @LegoFanTexas more than makes up for the lack of input ;)

samiam391

^^I wonder if "guest" views are counted? If so, that'd explain a lot of those 164.4k..

Just my $.02 ;-)

Pitfall69

Some people should be seen and not heard ;)

turtle1173

Could someone point me in the right direction for shipping boxes? I'm mainly looking for boxes for the standard "large size", like Battle of Endor or the HP castle.

I know I've read before about Uline but that looks like $2 per box. Is that the best price? What size is best? I was hoping for something in the $1 per box range, but that looks like a dream from what I'm seeing.

Pitfall69

I always keep the shipping boxes from TLG

FatMatt

^^ I found a local company near me where I can get them about 33% cheaper than Uline and cheaper shipping. You might want to Google search for somewhere near you, that is if you are in a Metropolitan area.

Renny

When I had to ship the 10195 set Uline was the only place that I could find boxes big enough. If you don't mind buying in bulk, it's a pretty good source for large sizes.

sidersdd

If you're going to buy a bunch of boxes (over $300), you can use code SP314 to get free shipping at Uline.

gmpirate

^ or maybe you're lucky to be local to a distribution center ;)

sidersdd

gmpirate said:

^ or maybe you're lucky to be local to a distribution center ;)

Nice.

prevere

Wal-Mart at 10pm and 2am is box heaven. Just avoid the zombie customers and you're fine. They'll give you whatever you want. For mid to smaller boxes it's good. But for large sets - not as many. But from the U.S. you'd likely ship those Priority anyways, in which boxes are free...

prevere

Also noticed Minecraft 21102 is "temp out of stock"...again.

LegoFanTexas

prevere said:

Also noticed Minecraft 21102 is "temp out of stock"...again.

Anyone else think that TLG was surprised by how popular this was?

I don't blame them for making a small initial production run, why make tons of them, only to get stuck with them and have to clearance them out.

They probably can sell 100,000 of these, which probably surprises someone, somewhere. :)

When they finally do the Portal series, they would be nuts not to do an initial production run of 250,000 with plans to make 1 million of them.

That may sound like a lot, but keep in mind it got to 10,000 supports in 2 weeks, which is just amazing...

thornie

^ Personally, I think TLG is surprised when any of the CUUSOO sets does well. IMO they have a narrow idea what people actually want out of LEGO. The CUUSOO project will push TLG to try new things and acquire more diverse licenses, and that's a good thing!

prevere

It did get approved very quickly. I wonder if the Hayabusa 21101 will perform in similar fashion to Minecraft? At $50 it's a bit pricey for what you get.

LegoFanTexas

prevere said:

It did get approved very quickly. I wonder if the Hayabusa 21101 will perform in similar fashion to Minecraft? At $50 it's a bit pricey for what you get.

Not only is it pricey, but it isn't a license. Minecraft has built in buyers.

Will I buy both? Yes, because I find both interesting, but not until I get a promo or something else to go with them. Either 10% off on Black Friday, or a polybag, or something...

Pitfall69

LegoFanTexas said:

prevere said:

It did get approved very quickly. I wonder if the Hayabusa 21101 will perform in similar fashion to Minecraft? At $50 it's a bit pricey for what you get.

Not only is it pricey, but it isn't a license. Minecraft has built in buyers.

Will I buy both? Yes, because I find both interesting, but not until I get a promo or something else to go with them. Either 10% off on Black Friday, or a polybag, or something...

I wont buy any of that either. I guess I'm just old, but they don't interest me.I don't play many video games. Halo, Call of Duty, that's about it. Halo is Mega Bloksand COD will never happen because of military. Now...I would definitely buy resident Evil set ;)

Legofanscott

Pitfall69 said:

LegoFanTexas said:

prevere said:

It did get approved very quickly. I wonder if the Hayabusa 21101 will perform in similar fashion to Minecraft? At $50 it's a bit pricey for what you get.

Not only is it pricey, but it isn't a license. Minecraft has built in buyers.

Will I buy both? Yes, because I find both interesting, but not until I get a promo or something else to go with them. Either 10% off on Black Friday, or a polybag, or something...

I wont buy any of that either. I guess I'm just old, but they don't interest me.I don't play many video games. Halo, Call of Duty, that's about it. Halo is Mega Bloksand COD will never happen because of military. Now...I would definitely buy resident Evil set ;)

Same here, i didnt even know what minecraft even was LOL

I really don't understand what the appeal is, so many good stuff on cussoo and thats what we end up with :/

Pitfall69

I was on Xbox and one of my "friends" was playing it. Other than that, I had no idea. The set looks like my 6 year old nephew built it.

Brewer51

Minecraft is great. In fact, it's perfect for a Lego enthusiast. It's literally taking blocks and building them to make whatever you want.

Pitfall69

Brewer51 said:

Minecraft is great. In fact, it's perfect for a Lego enthusiast. It's literally taking blocks and building them to make whatever you want.

I have Legos for that.

Brewer51

on the xbox?

Renny

It was released as an arcade game on xbox a couple months ago.

Brewer51

No I know, I was just saying, you can't build Lego on the Xbox. It's just a fun outlet, especially if you're playing with others.

samiam391

Brewer51 said:

No I know, I was just saying, you can't build Lego on the Xbox. It's just a fun outlet, especially if you're playing with others.

I think what @Pitfall69 was trying to say is, he doesn't think paying $35 for a set to make blocks is necessary, when ones traditional LEGO assortment can do that.
Like you said:
" It's literally taking blocks and building them to make whatever you want.".. Well, you can do that with regular LEGO blocks, you don't need to buy a set for that.

Pitfall69

^Yes thank you. I'm just tired and wanted to get off this ride :)

Brewer51

No...I meant the game. My original post wasn't referring to the Minecraft set in any way.

Edit: Sorry for the mixup. I didn't realise Pitfall hadn't realised I was referring to the game...if that makes sense :)

LegoFanTexas

^ I completely get that many people don't like licensed themes, or don't like Minecraft.

To be fair, I had never heard of it before it was made into Lego, so it is all new to me. But anything with a pre-built in audience does have a leg up on something totally new.

Even something like Ninjago isn't really new, the ideas and themes there are so completely rehashed from everything that came before it, it feels familiar, even if a new theme. Really, Ninja's are not a new idea and kids love em. :)

Just wait until the next line comes out, forget Snakes, try PIRATES!!! Kids LOVE Pirates... :)

turtle1173

The new Ninja's Vs. Pirates episode comes on tomorrow night. This has been talked about for months and months now. I saw the previews for the episode and one pirate looks just like brickbeard. It's hard not to smile about that :-)

The_Mack

Minecraft is a lot bigger than most people know or think. It's has a huge following... Millions of players... my kids play it quite a bit. So the idea of Lego Minecraft set is brilliant. If you've never played it, it's kind of what you hoped a creating Lego game should/could be. It hits all the buttons as a popular item. Will it be popular forever? hard to tell, but it is hot now. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kq-DQSJs4xI When people have created The Magic Kingdom in Minecraft, and the world of Game of Thrones it's really something.

Pitfall69

Ok. I'll take your word for it :)

I've seen some impressive Magic Kingdom Castles made from Lego...now that's really something. That's the whole point right? We love Legos and love to build with Legos. Why do we need a set that is about a game that you build a world with blocks? That is the reason we have Legos. A bunch of Lego blocks and your imagination.

Ok. I'm done now. I tend to ramble on :)

Pitfall69

I was talking about Winter Toy shop in another thread. What are your thoughts about its aftermarket value?

gmpirate

Might be close to PotC finally going out. Walked into the South Coast Plaza store today and they only had London Escape ( on sale) and The Mill (full price). It is a smaller store but it's the first time i've seen PotC get the squeeze.

nkx1

gmpirate, I was there a few days ago as well, and saw the London Escape and The Mill in the corner like you did. However, on the opposite side of the store, there were at least four Black Pearl sets (not on sale). No idea why they decided to put the same theme on opposite sides of the store.

On a side note, I was also at the Ontario Mills store the other day, and they had most or all of the POTC sets as far as I can remember. Unfortunately this store had little or no discounted damaged box items as they sometimes do.

gmpirate

^ hmmm, didn't see the Pearls and I normally scan all the shelves. I was told the smaller stores like South Coast would be reducing their line of PotC and HP. I was just surprised to see it almost completely gone. Downtown is completely stocked as well.

Ontario had been getting huge shipments of damaged boxes in the last few weeks. We may just be in for a dry spell.

The_Mack

Pitfall69 said:

Ok. I'll take your word for it :)

Why do we need a set that is about a game that you build a world with blocks? That is the reason we have Legos. A bunch of Lego blocks and your imagination.

Ok. I'm done now. I tend to ramble on :)

Minecraft the game let's you build unlimited... Lego does too, but on a much higher cost basis. Think of the Lego Minecraft set as a novelty item of your favorite game. It's hard to wrap your head around what Minecraft is until you sit down and play it. It looks so basic, but it is a unlimited sandbox, with some adventure built in. I work in the gaming industry... It's a game of it's own era.

CCC

The_Mack said:

Minecraft the game let's you build unlimited... Lego does too, but on a much higher cost basis.

LDD let's you do it for free.

The_Mack

not trying to derail here, but LDD doesn't let you climb into your creation, or grow gardens, etc. Minecraft and LDD are different things. They have similar functions but LDD is a design tool. Minecraft is a game.

Pitfall69

I understand what you mean. It's like SIMS meets LDD.

You aren't derailing. You are trying to get us to understand why the Lego Set is popular.

UKtsumi

I dont think many lego people are buying minecraft, its more minecraft followers being pulled into lego, good move by lego!
My kids are 13 and 10 , and are both into minecraft, so are alot of their friends. Its about £10 on xbox so affordable!

CCC

UKtsumi said:

I dont think many lego people are buying minecraft, its more minecraft followers being pulled into lego, good move by lego!

Pulled into Lego, or into just Lego Minecraft? If all they buy is the Minecraft set, then it hasn't done much to the number of Lego buyers. Hopefully Lego make a huge profit on this, < wishfulthinking > so they can keep other sets prices down < /wishfulthinking >

Pitfall69

I was hoping the same would happen to the LOTR line. There are many crazy fans of LOTR and may buy the sets just to have more LOTR stuff. I would think that would happen with any major licensed theme Star Wars, Marvel, DC etc...

doriansdad

Pitfall69 said:

I was talking about Winter Toy shop in another thread. What are your thoughts about its aftermarket value?

This is going to be an interesting one, assuming it is truly discontinued of course lol. Gradually prices are creeping up to around $120 and I think we might see $150 around xmas. Some of its pieces are becoming quite rare.

However, we got some very interesting news on the next in the line of this series - (10229) Winter Village Cottage. It will be a massive 1490 pieces (twice the size of the Bakery) and retail for $100 in the USA. If it is an excellent and must have set and the Bakery and Post Office are still available (which I am assuming they will be) then we will see alot of buyers come in to complete the line which will drive prices up on the Toy Shop to possibly $200+. For this to happen tho 10229 has to be spectacular....we should get pics next week. Just MO.

Pitfall69

Yes, I think Lego knows they have a good thing with the Modulars, so why not do the same thing with the Winter Series.

Pitfall69

I bought an extra Winter Toy Shop just before EOL on sale. I'm hoping it goes up in price. I see on EBay it's around $115-120. If it does go up to $200, that would mire than quadruple my investment :)

The fact these sets only are available during the holidays is intriguing. I grabbed some of those Christmas Vignettes last year that came free with an order. What do you think of those?

hoyatables

Winter Village cottage...yet twice the size of the bakery...sounds more like a winter village mansion! (unless the pieces are largely in vehicles and other extras as with the other sets...)

doriansdad

hoyatables said:

Winter Village cottage...yet twice the size of the bakery...sounds more like a winter village mansion! (unless the pieces are largely in vehicles and other extras as with the other sets...)

Yep Market Street is just 1248 pieces so this is going to be an interesting set and direction for the series indeed!