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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    You consider 6211 a small set?

    I don't have it so...;)

    All things in life are relative... Since I have 10030 on display in our front entryway, yes I consider 6211 a small set.

    6211 is a playset with an interior, and much more durable than the big one. My son could well have a lot of fun with 6211, but he can also have fun with non-retired sets at a fraction of the cost. :)

    So I built this, then put it on the shelf where it has sat for about 6 months. Kinda sad, because it was meant to be played with, but given the value of it, I hesitate to give it to my son.

    Since I have the box in great displayable condition, the instructions are in near mint condition (I keep them in a filing cabinet inside the house), I would think $200 shipped within the US would be a fair price for it.

    I know you can get cheaper copies, but none of them have the box.

    So my question becomes, does anyone really care about the box?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Speaking of 6211.... I would love to have it. However I have been holding off hoping that this is a ship they will improve soon. I think an updated star destroyer would do extremely well.

    You would think, but given the current price per part of Lego, the next one wouldn't be able to have 1,366 parts in it, or it would cost $200!!! :(

    So if they redo this but put in 900 parts and charge $120 for it, how great can it be, being 450 parts short of the last one?

    That is one hard point going forward, regarding further Star Wars rereleases. If the price per part of SW is now 13-15 cents per part, it is going to make having "improved versions" released in the future with lower part counts for the same price points they need to hit.

    If in 5 years they redo the Falcon again, and instead of 1,254 parts they put in 900, can they get the same effect? At some point, everyone is going to start to notice the lack of parts.
  • vman100vman100 Member Posts: 13
    Separate question for you all - how do you store new sets for later sale. Seems like over time the pieces settle to the bottom half of the box and warp it slightly. Just curious what you all do...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Store them flat, but not stacked too high.

    This is the same way they store them at The Lego Store, in the back room.

    You just have to make sure you're putting the same size boxes on top of each other. Not a problem with multiples, but if you only have 1 of each, it gets harder...
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002

    So my question becomes, does anyone really care about the box?

    I don't personally, but there are certainly a lot of people that do. In the instances where I do buy a used set, I almost always look for people selling it without the box, especially on the higher end sets. If you happen to be amongst the people that don't worry about owning the box, you can save a lot of money this way.

    The manual is a different story. I know you can get them online, but it's just not the same, nor is it nearly as convenient.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited July 2012

    Speaking of 6211.... I would love to have it. However I have been holding off hoping that this is a ship they will improve soon. I think an updated star destroyer would do extremely well.

    You would think, but given the current price per part of Lego, the next one wouldn't be able to have 1,366 parts in it, or it would cost $200!!! :(

    So if they redo this but put in 900 parts and charge $120 for it, how great can it be, being 450 parts short of the last one?

    That is one hard point going forward, regarding further Star Wars rereleases. If the price per part of SW is now 13-15 cents per part, it is going to make having "improved versions" released in the future with lower part counts for the same price points they need to hit.

    If in 5 years they redo the Falcon again, and instead of 1,254 parts they put in 900, can they get the same effect? At some point, everyone is going to start to notice the lack of parts.
    I did a cost comparison awhile back. I Used the first release 6390 Main Street vs. The re release of Main Street 10041. I used this comparison because there was such a huge gap between the first issue and the re release.

    6390 was released in 1980 and cost $40 USD. 10041 was released in 2003 and cost $65. If you use a simple inflation calculator you would find that $40 in 1980 was worth $89.32 in 2003. There were some minor changes done between the sets because they didn't have the mold for the long grey Ibeams so they had to use other parts which resulted in more parts for the set. You can take whatever you want from this data, but one thing is for sure, the cost of Lego sets will always go up.


  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ That is true... but you also must taken into account that the price of parts has not risen evenly over time.

    Actually, all things considered, for awhile Lego was getting less expensive over time, not more. Adjusting for inflation, Lego was more expensive in the 80s than it was in the 2000s.

    But I think that trend is reversing. Looking at the summer wave of sets, everything from Creator to Ninjago to Star Wars has seen a noticeable bump in prices.

    The old rule of 10 cents per part is being washed away, even the Creator sets, long the best deal on the Lego wall, has broken the 10 cents per part for even normal sets. The new Beach House is a good example of that.

    The summer wave of Star Wars sets seems to be in the 13-15 cent per part range. Taking the middle of that, at 14 cents a part, 6211 Imperial Star Destroyer with 1,366 parts would cost today $191, compared to the $99 it cost in 2006.

    Inflation hasn't jumped THAT much! :) Or maybe it has, perhaps this is a reflection of all the money printing that governments around the world have done in the past 4 years. But that is a topic for another forum.

    Back on topic, my point is only that as the price per part rises, it becomes harder to hit those desired price points and still have a large detailed toy.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited July 2012
    Yeah, I didn't want to get ino a long debate about the costs of remaking Star Wars sets ;) I was just throwing it out there.

    We will buy a remake of 6211 because we are addicted :-)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,285

    ^ Lego was trying out new things, but they didn't keep costs under control.

    Making parts in new colors costs money, making new shapes costs money, not reusing them in enough sets raises your unit cost.

    At some point, it isn't a profitable enterprise.

    Exactly... Just like now, I think LEGO is branching out MUCH more now than in 2000 but they have a plan, whereas I think LEGO back then just had a 'cowboy' dept where guys just did whatever with whatever funds.. I think desperation was also occurring in the late 90's early 2000 where they were losing market share and panicked.

    But LEGO better be careful still I just see them doing a lot of stuff now that I just do not see see selling much IMO.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,285

    ^ That is true... but you also must taken into account that the price of parts has not risen evenly over time.

    Actually, all things considered, for awhile Lego was getting less expensive over time, not more. Adjusting for inflation, Lego was more expensive in the 80s than it was in the 2000s.

    But I think that trend is reversing. Looking at the summer wave of sets, everything from Creator to Ninjago to Star Wars has seen a noticeable bump in prices.

    The old rule of 10 cents per part is being washed away, even the Creator sets, long the best deal on the Lego wall, has broken the 10 cents per part for even normal sets. The new Beach House is a good example of that.

    The summer wave of Star Wars sets seems to be in the 13-15 cent per part range. Taking the middle of that, at 14 cents a part, 6211 Imperial Star Destroyer with 1,366 parts would cost today $191, compared to the $99 it cost in 2006.

    Inflation hasn't jumped THAT much! :) Or maybe it has, perhaps this is a reflection of all the money printing that governments around the world have done in the past 4 years. But that is a topic for another forum.

    Back on topic, my point is only that as the price per part rises, it becomes harder to hit those desired price points and still have a large detailed toy.


    People also forget that Oil is used to make plastics and Oil is not going to get any cheaper... Unless LEGO finds a way to make reliable ABS out of Corn LEGO is only going to go up in its production costs, which will get passed to the consumer. Nevermind the Obvious price mark ups for LEGO SW and other licenses.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Yes, but Oil was just as expensive, if not more expensive, in 2006... Or does no one remember $4/gal gas back then (I sure do!).
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    Yeah, I didn't want to get ino a long debate about the costs of remaking Star Wars sets ;) I was just throwing it out there.

    We will buy a remake of 6211 because we are addicted :-)

    I might not...

    The summer wave is the first that I haven't bought any Star Wars sets from. I'd love a Jabba's Palace, but for $120? Pass...

    That set should be $79, even $99 taking into account the figs perhaps. At 17 cents a part, that is just nuts. And don't tell me that the Jabba mold is the problem, other companies make plastic toys for far less all the time without a problem. I just don't buy the whole "but Jabba costs so much to make" story.

    I think TLG is just charging what they think they can get away with. I have no problem with that, free market at work and all, but I won't be buying at that price.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Yeah, $120 is alot for that set.

    Corn isn't the answer either seeing that the drought has killed the corn crop this year. Hemp isn't exactly the answer either since they haven't found a way to make clear plastic out of hemp.

    I do think this topic is relative to the secondary market because furtue set and piece prices do reflect on the secondary market, but maybe we can discuss this in detail in another thread.

    I never thought in my wildest dreams that I would pay $200 for a Lego set. Then the $300 and $400 sets came. I bought them and I guess I will still keep buying them as long as TLG puts out a quality product.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited July 2012
    ^next level of the sickness involves breaking those price barriers and going for the EOL stuff. So I think you might still be early in the illness :) #10030 :ahem:
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ All reason and logic go out the door when it comes to #10030

    :)

    But that is ok, because it is a nice display piece that you can show off. Jabba's Palace is not, it is a kids toy, and that I think is the difference.

    Then again, I've sold several very expensive copies of Jabba's Sail Barge (6210), so what the heck do I know?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,285

    ^ Yes, but Oil was just as expensive, if not more expensive, in 2006... Or does no one remember $4/gal gas back then (I sure do!).

    Prices for LEGO are not going to go up or down with gas prices.. there is gas and there is Oil.
    since Oil, by all accounts, is a limited resource one can speculate that it will do nothing but make things more expensive that are oil based plastics.
    ANd if the quality of LEGO drops anymore you may see people starting buying older sets just for the better quality of parts..lol

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Yes, but Oil was $145 a barrel back then as well, so that doesn't hold up either.

    I think way too much weight to the value of oil is being put on the price of something like Lego. Plastic is not that expensive, even high quality plastic.

    R&D, printing manuals and boxes, shipping, labor, manufacturing, advertising, etc. all cost a lot of money. I would suggest that the cost of the plastic in a Lego set is less than the cost of labor, R&D, etc.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444

    ^next level of the sickness involves breaking those price barriers and going for the EOL stuff. So I think you might still be early in the illness :) #10030 :ahem:

    Lucky me. I already have #100030 :) There are plenty of retired sets tthat I need to get.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444

    ^ Yes, but Oil was $145 a barrel back then as well, so that doesn't hold up either.

    I think way too much weight to the value of oil is being put on the price of something like Lego. Plastic is not that expensive, even high quality plastic.

    R&D, printing manuals and boxes, shipping, labor, manufacturing, advertising, etc. all cost a lot of money. I would suggest that the cost of the plastic in a Lego set is less than the cost of labor, R&D, etc.

    Yes, I agree. All of this adds up and while petroleum is used to produce plastic, the cost of gas used to ship Lego probably plays a bigger role.

  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Ok, I'm wanting 10030 now :P
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    I have a complete 10030, built once and displayed. No instructions or box though. Any offers?:)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I have a complete 10030, built once and displayed. No instructions or box though. Any offers?:)
    Five dollars... Plus shipping of course... ;)
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,398
    I'll raise the bidding to $5.01, but that'd require me getting free shipping to go up that much.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Was this set really in production for 5 years? :/

    Brickopedia states that 10030 retired in 2007, surely that isnt correct?, that would make its lifespan longer than the deathstar's current one?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    10030 (and the Death Star II, actually) sat FOREVER unsold. They were both still available in 2008, actually, when TLG clearanced them out at $150.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    10030 is the old grey isn't it? Does this increase it's value any?
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ There are actually three or four different versions. The original was all old grey. Then TLG transitioned the grey color to a bluish grey (bley). So there were 10030 sets produced during this transition which had both old grey and bley parts. And finally (since they produced this set for so long) it eventually contained just the bley parts. There were also two different bindings for the instructions. One with a glued spine, and one with a spiral binding.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    If I put $20 down, do I get the set at $5.02 if no one else bids?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    sidersdd said:

    ^ There are actually three or four different versions. The original was all old grey. Then TLG transitioned the grey color to a bluish grey (bley). So there were 10030 sets produced during this transition which had both old grey and bley parts. And finally (since they produced this set for so long) it eventually contained just the bley parts. There were also two different bindings for the instructions. One with a glued spine, and one with a spiral binding.

    Ok. I will have to look at what version I have. Iam positive it is all old grey, but i will look anyway.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ My understanding is that the glued manuals were the early ones, and if you have a glued manual, then you almost certainly have an old gray one.

    The spiral binding was done for both, so you never know without just comparing bricks with that one.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I have glued. So...is there a difference in value between the different versions?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    Sold!!! to gmpirate for $5.02! :) Accepted payment forms are food stamps and LINK cards:).
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    At least he would be buying something that's worth something with his bridge card/food stamps. I saw someone buy a 4 pack of Red Bull and 5 24 packs of Mountain Dew the other day with their bridge card. Those were essential items to live on I guess.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I know i'm beating a dead horse, but what is the deal with Fire Brigade being listed over retail and some listings well over current retail?
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 217

    Pitfall69 said:

    You consider 6211 a small set?

    I don't have it so...;)

    All things in life are relative... Since I have 10030 on display in our front entryway, yes I consider 6211 a small set.

    6211 is a playset with an interior, and much more durable than the big one. My son could well have a lot of fun with 6211, but he can also have fun with non-retired sets at a fraction of the cost. :)

    So I built this, then put it on the shelf where it has sat for about 6 months. Kinda sad, because it was meant to be played with, but given the value of it, I hesitate to give it to my son.

    Since I have the box in great displayable condition, the instructions are in near mint condition (I keep them in a filing cabinet inside the house), I would think $200 shipped within the US would be a fair price for it.

    I know you can get cheaper copies, but none of them have the box.

    So my question becomes, does anyone really care about the box?
    Having the box with the set and having it in good condition is important to me but I was just thinking about it and I'm not sure why. I just know that I don't feel like the set is complete without the box and instructions. Completely irrational but can't get over it nonetheless. I have an entire freaking walk in closet full of boxes for my displayed sets! I am considering my first purchase without the box though, taj mahal, so we'll see if I can get over it.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 873
    I think getting the instructions is important. Among other things, a good sign that the set is original and not Bricklinked.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    FatMatt said:

    Sold!!! to gmpirate for $5.02! :) Accepted payment forms are food stamps and LINK cards:).

    Can you just cash my disability check for me? I emptied my Link card at McDonald's last night :(
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,398
    FatMatt said:

    Sold!!! to gmpirate for $5.02! :) Accepted payment forms are food stamps and LINK cards:).

    And I was about to up my offer to $600... oh well. Enjoy it gmpirate for $5.02.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 873
    Pulled the trigger and listed Market Street on eBay. Seems like it is generally going for $400-$600 for a complete set. We'll see!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Good luck. I think the thread about buying Modular might help you out :)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    So tempting to buy some Falcons on Amazon at 25% off. My part of the country is not privy to all those 50% deals at Walmart. I just can't see this set going away after just one year. Should be another year left.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Unless there are exceptional deals, I think the best thing to do right now is just put money aside for double points October, Black Friday and post Christmas sales. The only set that I will probably accumulate until then is the IS when available -- mostly because I have not bought many of this particular set and I believe it will do well.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Apologies if this has been asked hundreds of times and may sound like a stupid question but I've always wondered the reason behind why sets go up in value once retired?, I know supply and demand and all that is one of many reasons why but, is some of it psychological?, Lego sets arnt limited so surely there are still plenty to go around once they are retired? Or am I wrong, sets like EN and IF rose in value pretty much straight away after they retired, when reseller stock wouldve been at its highest, sorry if this has all been answered many times over
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Supply and demand, the supply that TLG offers is indeed vast, the supply that resellers offer is not. You might be overestimating the reseller supply that really exists. A few thousand resellers holding back a few dozen sets, is not a vast supply.

    Some sets don't rise in value, some linger around or below RRP for a long time. IF and EN are the outliers, they have performed very well indeed.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^GMpirate - yeah I think I'm cutting off my attack on retail clearance aisles, and saving up for BF too. Good move.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    @gmpirate - I'm having a hard time resisting on the 25% for 7965 as well. I just need to keep telling myself that it's not going away just yet. It's very tempting, though.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I got 2 for 25% off last November. I'm going to wait until it goes down further to buy some more.
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    Pitfall69 said:

    I got 2 for 25% off last November. I'm going to wait until it goes down further to buy some more.

    I remember getting one last fall for $90, although I can't remember for sure where it came from. It might have been BN. Whenever you find a good deal on something, it's always harder to pay more for it later on if you want another.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Yes, this is true, but I don't think MF is on its way out yet, so I expect there will be more deals to be had.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Does anyone else find it amazing that this thread has over 5,000 comments?
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