Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

LegoFanTexas

Frankly, most of the online pictures of Eiffel Tower don't do it justice...

See the attached picture, that is a Cafe Corner on the floor next to Eiffel Tower, with an Imperial Shuttle on the table.

Naturally this isn't where we keep Cafe Corner, I just put it there to give some scale to the picture. To the right of the table, we are going to put Statue of Liberty on a base when it is done, and replace Imperial Shuttle with UCS Falcon when that gets built.

Yes, I have a very understanding and loving wife. ;)

Renny

Omg! It is dwarfing the shuttle! I had no idea he tower was built in such an epic scale.

graphite

^ Yeah I never realized it was that big either. Thanks for the scale pic.

LegoFanTexas

^ You're welcome... I thought it was pretty cool once built, box pictures sometimes don't really show off a set really well. I suspect the new UCS B-Wing will be that way, similar to the UCS Imperial Shuttle. Ok, the Shuttle looks small in that picture, but compared to everything else, it is actually quite grand.

I should get 10188 Death Star down and put it in that pic for a size comparison. :) Unless anyone else has specific requests.

JBricks27

^SSD

doriansdad

Wow thanks for the pic LFT. I have never seen the ET in person and had no idea it was as big as it is. Was thinking of bricklinking this beauty but now I have to figure out where I would display it!

jonboy2000

nkx1 said:

^Forgot to mention, yes, there is English (but with British spelling) printed on the boxes, along with various other languages including what appears to be Italian, French, German and possibly others.

"English (but with british spelling)" ?????????

LegoFanTexas

^SSD

I don't have that one built yet, but it is next on my list...

I could put the older UCS ISD next to it, if that helps...?

Sherlockbones

Did'nt LEGO once re-release a Cafe of some sort in 2001?

Don't know if this counts, but will the TC-14 be much in a few years?

graphite

^ How about just everything you have built piled in that corner? That would help me... help me get a laugh that is =)

LegoFanTexas

^ Funny, you're very funny... :)

madforLEGO

Sherlockbones said:

Did'nt LEGO once re-release a Cafe of some sort in 2001?
Don't know if this counts, but will the TC-14 be much in a few years?

I think you are thinking of the Breeze way cafe: http://www.brickset.com/detail/?set=10037-1
As for the TC-14 It depends on if LEGO releases the figure again or in a set, then again the black ARF trooper does not seem to be selling much right now (then again it is summer, which usually is a slow time to sell LEGO)

Pitfall69

jonboy2000 said:

nkx1 said:

^Forgot to mention, yes, there is English (but with British spelling) printed on the boxes, along with various other languages including what appears to be Italian, French, German and possibly others.

"English (but with british spelling)" ?????????

I think what he means is that in the US, words like colour is spelled color.

FatMatt

As for the TC-14 It depends on if LEGO releases the figure again or in a set, then again the black ARF trooper does not seem to be selling much right now (then again it is summer, which usually is a slow time to sell LEGO)

I would guess part of the reason for that is that they produced a large amount of them. They were brought back to [email protected] at least a couple times for promotions within the last year. Hopefully this is not the case with TC-14.

prevere

LegoFanTexas said:

The mid-level sets might not do as well over multiple years, but they should still do well in the short term.

2260 and 2521 anyone? :)

2260 has really had a rollercoaster ride since EOL'ing in Nov. Widely available for $15-20 at the end of the year in all retail establishments. Then skyrockets to nearly $100 in 3 months. And now is hovering around $60-70 consistently - the the weak summer months.

fyrmedhatt

As for 3450, Jamie Berard mentioned the set in one of his talks at Brickfiesta, saying that particular set could not be done today because it featured around 50 different sand green parts.

This is because of the much more limited parts palette today than back then (in 2000 the designers were much more freely able to request parts in new colors), so the only way that the Statue of Liberty could be done now is if there was a theme with a predominance of sand green in it (think what power miners did for lime green).

LegoFanTexas

^ I believe him, I think that freedom to make new parts endlessly is part of what drove TLG into near bankruptcy...

If you look at sets from the 2000-2003 timeframe, there are tons of special one-off parts that were never reused, that is really expensive and wasteful of resources. You need to use parts in multiple sets.

mathew

Thing is that I see all sorts of odd parts used in Ninjago sets. I think Lego looks at how many sets that they can sell and then determines whether or not it is feasible to put those parts into production.

Regarding the Statue of Liberty: Just looking at the pictures I don't see that many odd parts. It mostly looks like 1x's. Also, even if a part is no longer in production, I would think that the Lego designers would be clever enough to work with something else. For example, R2-D2 is much more detailed than the Liberty model and from what I know doesn't use any specialized parts.

LegoFanTexas

R2-D2 may not use a lot of special parts, but white is not a rare color either. :) Neither is dark blue, which a lot of those parts are.

Sand green is used in very few sets, to make a set out of nothing but Sand green would require a lot of it, in a lot of molds, that wouldn't be used for anything else, so TLG would have to change out the color in a lot of molds, store a lot of spare parts for years, all to sell a slow selling large scale sculpture that probably has a low profit margin to begin with.

Not to mention that it has already been done, why not do something new?

prevere

^St. Louis arch would be nice. I know this belongs elsewhere. But if we're talking about U.S. landmarks done in a large Sculptures set style, there are a bunch that have never been touched. I will say a new Liberty with Ellis Island and some tourists would be extremely cool.

The_Mack

EggoFanTexas said:

Sand green is used in very few sets, to make a set out of nothing but Sand green would require a lot of it, in a lot of molds, that wouldn't be used for anything else, so TLG would have to change out the color in a lot of molds, store a lot of spare parts for years, all to sell a slow selling large scale sculpture that probably has a low profit margin to begin with.

Not to mention that it has already been done, why not do something new?

But isn't the new Haunted Mansion mostly sand green?

Yellowcastle

I too had no idea that the Eiffel set was that big. That's amazing. IMO, it's actually large enough to put into a Paris cityscape without looking grossly undersized.

graphite

^^ Haunted house has 316 sand green pieces out of 2064 and half of them are 1x1 or 1x2 bricks. So it definitely isn't "mostly" sand green but has a good number of pieces in that color.

mathew

I don't quite buy the arguement that it uses too many sand green parts. Trust me, if Lego thinks they can make enough money, they'll put out a billion sand green bricks in every shape imaginable.

LegoFanTexas

mathew said:

I don't quite buy the arguement that it uses too many sand green parts. Trust me, if Lego thinks they can make enough money, they'll put out a billion sand green bricks in every shape imaginable.

But that's just it... It has nearly 3,000 parts, almost every one of which is sand green. If they thought they'd sell a million sets, sure they would do it, but what would they really sell, 20,000? 50,000? 100,000 over 2 or 3 years?

Is that the best use of their manufacturing resources? Keep in mind they can only make so many bricks of so many colors each year. Every additional brick they add in another color, actually reduces the overall production because of the changeout time. So it costs more money to make special parts because of that.

Legofanscott

But weren't Lego trying out new things in 2000, before then pretty much all Lego sets were playsets, 2000 was the beginning of a new era for AFOL/display sets, No wonder Lego nearly went bankrupt, lego's market back then would've mostly been little kids, would kids really have wanted a set with zero playability?

LegoFanTexas

^ Lego was trying out new things, but they didn't keep costs under control.

Making parts in new colors costs money, making new shapes costs money, not reusing them in enough sets raises your unit cost.

At some point, it isn't a profitable enterprise.

Legofanscott

Back on the topic of Lego sets aftermarket value, will some sets today be as valuable in 8-10 years time as sets 8-10 years old today? With Legos rising popularity maybe there will just be too many copies out there to gain appreciation in value?, I know it's a question that nobody can really answer at this point in time, just wish i was old enough back in 2000 to buy them all from the beginning :(! But I do agree that Legos heyday has only just begun IMHO and for that I am thankful :)

BrickDancer

^We need the new clone, Eggo, to chime in also to bring the Sith alliance together in one place and one thread =)

@LFT has it right though on causes of limitations revolving around total cost and capacity. Statue of Liberty was manufactured at same time as Yoda (#7194) and were only sets to use sand green pieces at the time. So manufacturing costs for start-up, molds, granules, etc were consumed for 2 high RRP sets to justify the investment. The remaining bits of sand green were allocated to bulk brick boxes such as #4679 and #4518. Some parts were continued to supply future sets such as Green Grocer, but were limited to a small amount of types.

However, in the last 2 years TLG has focused on bringing back more of the sand green parts and have been placing them in Cars-themed sets such as Ultimate Mater, Mater's Escape, Oil Rig Escape, Bentley Bust Out and Harry Potter sets such as Hagrid's Hut and Diagon Alley. Some parts were only recently released again with LotR Helm's deep and Sopwith Camel. So I have a feeling TLG is listening to the community when they ask for desired parts and colors to be suggested.

After reviewing SoL's part list, as reference these are the ones not currently manufactured:

1x8 brick
2x6 brick
2x8 brick
2x2 brick
2x2 corner brick
1x1 round brick
2x2 round brick
2x2 macaroni brick
1x1 plate
1x3 plate
1x6 plate
1x8 plate
2x2 plate
2x6 plate
2x8 plate
1x2 jumper plate
2x3 33-inverted slope
1x2 technic brick with Hole
1x1 tile

The upcoming Haunted House was not taken into consideration for any parts that may have been re-released, since part list is not readily available yet. So I reckon it may still be possible one day to recreate SoL at market price for all pieces, but how long the wait is always questionable.

Legofanscott

BrickDancer said:

^We need the new clone, Eggo, to chime in also to bring the Sith alliance together in one place and one thread =)

@LFT has it right though on causes of limitations revolving around total cost and capacity. Statue of Liberty was manufactured at same time as Yoda (#7194) and were only sets to use sand green pieces at the time. So manufacturing costs for start-up, molds, granules, etc were consumed for 2 high RRP sets to justify the investment. The remaining bits of sand green were allocated to bulk brick boxes such as #4679 and #4518. Some parts were continued to supply future sets such as Green Grocer, but were limited to a small amount of types.

However, in the last 2 years TLG has focused on bringing back more of the sand green parts and have been placing them in Cars-themed sets such as Ultimate Mater, Mater's Escape, Oil Rig Escape, Bentley Bust Out and Harry Potter sets such as Hagrid's Hut and Diagon Alley. Some parts were only recently released again with LotR Helm's deep and Sopwith Camel. So I have a feeling TLG is listening to the community when they ask for desired parts and colors to be suggested.

After reviewing SoL's part list, as reference these are the ones not currently manufactured:

1x8 brick
2x6 brick
2x8 brick
2x2 brick
2x2 corner brick
1x1 round brick
2x2 round brick
2x2 macaroni brick
1x1 plate
1x3 plate
1x6 plate
1x8 plate
2x2 plate
2x6 plate
2x8 plate
1x2 jumper plate
2x3 33-inverted slope
1x2 technic brick with Hole
1x1 tile

The upcoming Haunted House was not taken into consideration for any parts that may have been re-released, since part list is not readily available yet. So I reckon it may still be possible one day to recreate SoL at market price for all pieces, but how long the wait is always questionable.

Vampyre castle has has sand green parts on the car, not sure what they are called but have the bricks that are used for the wheel arches ever been released in sets previously?

BrickDancer

^This is not the list for all sand green parts, but just specifically for those used in the SoL for those interested in the possibility of bricklinking it. But yes that is the first use of that mudguard in sand green, same for the curved slopes being firsts in the Vampyre Castle set.

Looking back on the catalog of sets, it feels like we are exiting a 'Dark Red' era and moving into a 'Sand Green' and 'Tan' era. Just an observation, not sure how true it is if dug deeper into the details.

Pitfall69

I do believe every manufacturing process does this to keep costs down. When I worked in the automotive industry, they do the same thing. One day would be Red Car, Black interior and automatic transmission. They would make nothing but that car on the assembly line for that particular day/week.

Pitfall69

Colored pieces and rare or out of production parts do drive prices on some of these sets. Just like sets and minifigures, these parts will go up in value over time.

MorkMan

LegoFanTexas said:

^ I should get 10188 Death Star down and put it in that pic for a size comparison. :) Unless anyone else has specific requests.

My suggestion for comparison to the Eiffel Tower is the 3723 Mini-Figure!

LegoFanTexas

MorkMan said:

My suggestion for comparison to the Eiffel Tower is the 3723 Mini-Figure!

Yes, but I don't have that one. :)

Pitfall69

You don't??? Oh, the horror.

doriansdad

I would love to be able to bricklink the Statue Of Liberty but my concern would be how does the sandgreen of today match up to the sandgreen of 12 years ago?....surely there would be some variation in color? Unless TLG redoes this set or makes every piece available again in other sets I doubt it would work out unless you want a mottled statue.

Pitfall69

Clearly, over the years, the Lego brick has changed. A white brick from my Police Headquarters circa 1978 is different than the bricks made today. The ABS was harder and the thickness of the walls were different back then. When I have a pile of bricks in a certain color, at first glance they all look the same, but as I'm building my model I notice color differences between the bricks. You can turn the brick over and notice a bunch of different things as well.

LegoFanTexas

doriansdad said:

I would love to be able to bricklink the Statue Of Liberty but my concern would be how does the sandgreen of today match up to the sandgreen of 12 years ago?....surely there would be some variation in color? Unless TLG redoes this set or makes every piece available again in other sets I doubt it would work out unless you want a mottled statue.

Why not just buy one? There are several on the market for around $1,000. That works out to about 30 cents a brick. I doubt you'd buy the bricks for THAT much less than that price, after shipping and all is accounted for, plus you have the instructions to consider as well.

The Price Guide on Bricklink says that the part out cost of the set is over $1,000 used, so you wouldn't save anything going that route.

Pitfall69

Agreed. Models like the CC and UCS MF can be bricklinked cheaper than buying used for the most part, but I would pay a couple hundred bucks more for a used oneand get the instructions too. If you can get a used SOL for the same price as a bricklinked one, just buy the used one with instructions. It's a no brainer.

Ma1234

Legofanscott said:

Back on the topic of Lego sets aftermarket value, will some sets today be as valuable in 8-10 years time as sets 8-10 years old today? With Legos rising popularity maybe there will just be too many copies out there to gain appreciation in value?, I know it's a question that nobody can really answer at this point in time, just wish i was old enough back in 2000 to buy them all from the beginning :(! But I do agree that Legos heyday has only just begun IMHO and for that I am thankful :)

FWIW, I've been collecting older LEGO since 1998 or so. Sets from the 1980s and 90s are a lot cheaper today than they were costing me 14 years ago.

doriansdad

LegoFanTexas said:

Why not just buy one? There are several on the market for around $1,000. That works out to about 30 cents a brick. I doubt you'd buy the bricks for THAT much less than that price, after shipping and all is accounted for, plus you have the instructions to consider as well.

Yep this will be on my shopping list after I sell some stock closer to xmas. Then I need Taj, Grand Carousel and Town Plan. Will it ever end?

LegoFanTexas

doriansdad said:

Yep this will be on my shopping list after I sell some stock closer to xmas. Then I need Taj, Grand Carousel and Town Plan. Will it ever end?

:) Yes, I can tell you it does end at some point... At some point you own all the big sets, Lego actually hasn't done all that many of them, so getting them isn't that hard if you have the budget and space.

Once you do, what else is there? With the recent addition of 10018 - Darth Maul and 3450 - Statue of Liberty, we really have nothing else to add. In fact, I'm going to start selling off the smaller items, we have decided that what we really like are the big complex sets. The more "playable" sets are more for kids and really aren't all that interesting on display.

So off they go! :)

Pitfall69

If they aren't worth that much to you then surely you could part with them for a huge discount. I'll take them off your hands :)

Legofanscott

LegoFanTexas said:

doriansdad said:

Yep this will be on my shopping list after I sell some stock closer to xmas. Then I need Taj, Grand Carousel and Town Plan. Will it ever end?

:) Yes, I can tell you it does end at some point... At some point you own all the big sets, Lego actually hasn't done all that many of them, so getting them isn't that hard if you have the budget and space.

Once you do, what else is there? With the recent addition of 10018 - Darth Maul and 3450 - Statue of Liberty, we really have nothing else to add. In fact, I'm going to start selling off the smaller items, we have decided that what we really like are the big complex sets. The more "playable" sets are more for kids and really aren't all that interesting on display.

So off they go! :)

Have to disagree with you there, the new monster fighters sets look brilliant on display, especially the castle and the train :)

LegoFanTexas

Sure, right until you put them next to the big sets... :)

Besides, sometimes less is more, after awhile it is just a huge collection of plastic, so we are working on cutting down the collection to just the good stuff.

LegoFanTexas

Pitfall69 said:

If they aren't worth that much to you then surely you could part with them for a huge discount. I'll take them off your hands :)

Yep, a huge discount off the new price. :)

I will have a 6211 for sale soon, along with an bunch of other sets. We will see how that goes...

Pitfall69

You consider 6211 a small set?

I don't have it so...;)

turtle1173

Speaking of 6211.... I would love to have it. However I have been holding off hoping that this is a ship they will improve soon. I think an updated star destroyer would do extremely well.

gmpirate

^ I'm sure they will do another at some point.