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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

19798100102103679

Comments

  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 217
    So there wasn't much discussion of 10212...do we think it's actually gone soon or not and what would you estimate this could possibly be going for around this Xmas if so?
  • khmellymelkhmellymel United KingdomMember Posts: 1,299
    I was on [email protected] and can no longer find any of the Harry Potter sets except the game, mini train and Diagonal Alley (all the ones I already have! Lol). Guess I'll scout some stores for the Knight Bus I was finally going to pull the trigger on, doh.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I just bought one from Target US. 261.81 out the door.
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 217
    All of my local walmarts and tru have plenty of knight bus FYI...although they seem to be the only HP set not clearanced yet around here.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I should gab the Knight Bus.
  • hleonffuhleonffu USAMember Posts: 243
    @111ins have built both. Like excavator better than unimog. Unimog is bigger and iconic, but excavator is more fun and it can be remote controlled. Unimog is more complex of a build compared to excavator. As LFT has mentioned before, it would have been nice to get instructions to motorize the unimog.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    ^ So what do the PF do in the Unimog? Just the crane arm?
  • hleonffuhleonffu USAMember Posts: 243
    ^ PF motors the winch in the front and the crane/arm in the back. You can also move the crane to the front.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I have 40 MMV sets, but I think that is just a rounding error, unless you have a thousand of them, selling a few shouldn't be an issue.

    As for 10212, that set has to be going soon with B-Wing coming out, time to buy when it is on sale.
  • khmellymelkhmellymel United KingdomMember Posts: 1,299
    @brclark82, yeah, I should be able to find it easy enough still in stores long as I do it soonish I guess. Pity I didn't pick it up when I was at the Alderwood opening, much cheaper than here (UK) or Canada, but I was already getting a Diagon Alley so what can you do!
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    I have 40 MMV sets, but I think that is just a rounding error, unless you have a thousand of them, selling a few shouldn't be an issue.

    As for 10212, that set has to be going soon with B-Wing coming out, time to buy when it is on sale.
    If by "soon" you mean after this year's holidays, yes, it's probably going soon. LEGO doesn't discontinue sets outside of the end-of-the-year with minimal exceptions.

  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,079
    Does 10212 have to go so soon? Perhaps the departure of Obi Wan's Starfighter has made way for the B-Wing. Nothing made way for UCS R2 though, did it?
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ so soon? It's been out almost 2 years, which is about the shelf life for all the UCS sets...
  • pmercikpmercik Member Posts: 55
    for those who missed it 4842 is available back at amazon.co.uk
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^I like the tree's look. But for playability with the kids, you touch it and it just falls apart. I've fixed that thing 50 things.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409


    If by "soon" you mean after this year's holidays, yes, it's probably going soon. LEGO doesn't discontinue sets outside of the end-of-the-year with minimal exceptions.

    I have to disagree with the end of the year thing... Over the past month, a bunch of sets have retired... Too many for me to bother with a list, but just a few are 8095, 8096, 8088, 8098, 8081, 10215, 9387, 9349, 7065, 7066, 7049, etc.

    And that doesn't include battle packs, 6 digit items, etc.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,228
    So there wasn't much discussion of 10212...do we think it's actually gone soon or not and what would you estimate this could possibly be going for around this Xmas if so?
    The only places that currently have the IS (10212) that I have seen are TRU.com and Target.com. Amazon is sold out (That is the retail Amazon, not the re-sellers) Walmart.com is also out of them.
    Target.com and TRU have them I'm guessing because no one wants to pay the shipping/Tax on them, or do not realize they still have them (and for retail).
    Does this mean they are gone? MAybe maybe not, but it appears that they went to Sold out for a brief time at lego.com and now they are call for product availability.
    This has occurred in the past though, but this may mean they are EOL soon.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Free Shipping on IS at Target.Com

    Nobody wants to pay tax? That a shame because you are still responsible to PAY TAX if you live in states that have sales tax.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^^ I see it as Sold Out now...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Whoa...lemme sees dat
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Target.com US says still in stock. Orders over $75 ship free.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^^ I see it as Sold Out now...
    [email protected] shows 10212 as available now
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^^ I see it as Sold Out now...
    [email protected] shows 10212 as available now
    Still shows as Sold Out to me?

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Imperial-Shuttle-10212
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Sold out to me too . . .
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Sold out to me too . . .
    Ahh, yes it does...

    When you search for it on the web site, it comes up "add to bag", then you try and it says "sold out". Didn't try actually adding it to my bag.

    Interesting...
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    Must be one of the "minimal exceptions" :).
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    LegoFanTexas doesn't like to go all the way when he's playing with his bag.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I've been picking up a few IS every time I can find it for 20% off or so, should have bought more on May 4th, but I was buying a lot of other stuff then and figured I had until Black Friday to do more IS.

    Possible that was a mistake, we shall see. If it really is gone now, it should do well since I don't think everyone and their brother has been stocking this one.

    Of course, I will point out the insanity of IS going now, when it is 2 years newer than DS, it is possible that DS is just that set that simply won't die and will be here 2 more years.

    Sheesh...
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    ^^^ [email protected] does weird stuff. When the minecraft set sold out I could search for it and get the listing page but when you clicked on more info or tried to add it it went to an error page. It's like their website display and their ordering system are completely separate and need to be manually synced when they add or delete.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Of course, I will point out the insanity of IS going now, when it is 2 years newer than DS, it is possible that DS is just that set that simply won't die and will be here 2 more years.

    Sheesh...
    DS is so iconic and TLG's current flagship and by all accounts selling well. When we get rumblings of the next huge SW playset you will know the time is near for EOL. As of yet I have not heard anything about a set that may take its place. Personally I am rooting for an impressive Cloud City to come along. IS is a nice set but was on sale multiple times which tells me it just wasn't selling...a good candidate for the B-Wing to replace.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I'm actually surprised the SSD isn't going before the IS. The IS just seems like a better seller all the way around (perhaps because it is roughly 2/3 the price of the SSD). I would like to get just one SSD to hold onto, but can't justify the price.



  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The SSD is less than a year old, IS is about 2 years old, it would be nuts for SSD to go now...

    Of course, if it did... oh boy would it go up fast in the after market. :)
  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    Not only is Hayabusa now available at US [email protected], but I see that Minecraft is also available again.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    The SSD is less than a year old, IS is about 2 years old, it would be nuts for SSD to go now...

    Of course, if it did... oh boy would it go up fast in the after market. :)
    I do agree with your comment; however, if we're talking about business (profits and losses) you have to ask which one (the SSD or IS) is making Lego more money. The sentiment (based on comments regarding each particular set) on this website (which also happen to agree with my own) is that the IS is a much better, more affordable set. And if it was only about which set was out longer, the DS would have been gone a long time ago. JMO.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Yes, but I suspect SSD makes more money than IS does. The price per part is higher, the cost of all those long Technic parts in IS can't be cheap.

    The weight of the two boxes does not explain the price difference either.

    So on a per dollar invested basis, I would bet that SSD is the more profitable set, even if lower volume.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 873
    With the news that LEGO is coming out with the Rancor set (and likely as an "add on" to Jabba's Palace, perhaps the combo becomes the uber playset to replace the Death Star. Not all that much I could imagine adding to Jabba's Palace -- perhaps a place for Max Rebo's band and some of Jabba's menagerie. Assuming the Palace is successful, Mos Eisley or Cloud City could be coming down the pike as the next modular playset. (Or maybe Coruscant -- with Palpatine's Arrest as the first wave.)

    Personally I cannot imagine any other mega set doing as well as DS, which is easily the most iconic location in the films. (It helps that the playset can integrate scenes from two different movies.) I think there's logic to breaking up future playsets into smaller chunks, especially when targeting beyond the AFOL audience. Even I, as an AFOL, would likely not pay $400 for any other setting. (I say this now . . . .) Each individual set would cost far less than the daunting price tag of the DS, but when added together become a "hundreds of dollars" investment.

    LEGO has kind of pioneered this with "related" sets over the past couple of years -- the various Hoth sets, the various Endor sets. Going modular allows LEGO to deliver the massive scale that hardcore fans want, yet also produce more affordable chunks that appeal to a wider audience.

    On a related note, finally picked up Death Star yesterday (was passing through Delaware so tax free (legally :) ) + 10% off coupon plus $35 in VIP points (and earned $15 more with the purchase). Now I have to decide whether to rip it open and build or hang on to it for a special occasion.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ A modular build of multiple sets is unlikely to have the same level of coolness that the DS provides.

    Once you build the DS, you should understand. Nothing I've built comes close to 10188 in terms of "wow" moments during the build. Yes, other sets are impressive, yes other sets are neat, but the multiple "oh that is cool!" moments during DS when you remember the movies, how well they did it, will be hard to reproduce.

    Don't underestimate the number of people who can afford a $400 toy, for their kids or themselves. Power Wheels, which tends to be a $250-$500 toy, broke the 1 Million units per year mark in 1990, since then they have sold over 25 million of the things...

    There is indeed a market for such a toy.
  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 417
    ^

    Agreed. What's even more ridiculous is they still sell despite making thousands of these.

    I haven't seen the SW IS restocked at the MOA Lego store. Pretty sure it's flying EOL zone.
  • pmercikpmercik Member Posts: 55
    Have anybody noticed how bricklink got flooded with the Shirtless Darth Maul minifigs? I sold a couple of them for about €20 and then suddenly over 2000 sold in a month and still over 500 available for about €9. Wondering how this amount will affect the prices for a couple of months.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ No kidding, what happened with that?

    Thankfully I sold all that I had a few weeks ago! :)

    Hmm, time to buy more?
  • pmercikpmercik Member Posts: 55
    It seems like one seller from Indonesia has got just awful lot of them:
    http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=6005188-1
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    With the news that LEGO is coming out with the Rancor set (and likely as an "add on" to Jabba's Palace, perhaps the combo becomes the uber playset to replace the Death Star. Not all that much I could imagine adding to Jabba's Palace -- perhaps a place for Max Rebo's band and some of Jabba's menagerie. Assuming the Palace is successful, Mos Eisley or Cloud City could be coming down the pike as the next modular playset. (Or maybe Coruscant -- with Palpatine's Arrest as the first wave.)

    Personally I cannot imagine any other mega set doing as well as DS, which is easily the most iconic location in the films. (It helps that the playset can integrate scenes from two different movies.) I think there's logic to breaking up future playsets into smaller chunks, especially when targeting beyond the AFOL audience. Even I, as an AFOL, would likely not pay $400 for any other setting. (I say this now . . . .) Each individual set would cost far less than the daunting price tag of the DS, but when added together become a "hundreds of dollars" investment.

    LEGO has kind of pioneered this with "related" sets over the past couple of years -- the various Hoth sets, the various Endor sets. Going modular allows LEGO to deliver the massive scale that hardcore fans want, yet also produce more affordable chunks that appeal to a wider audience.

    On a related note, finally picked up Death Star yesterday (was passing through Delaware so tax free (legally :) ) + 10% off coupon plus $35 in VIP points (and earned $15 more with the purchase). Now I have to decide whether to rip it open and build or hang on to it for a special occasion.
    Wait... where was the rancor set confirmed?
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,395
    edited July 2012
    http://www.ign.com/articles/2012/07/11/comic-con-lego-exclusives-revealed

    "LEGO Star Wars - Saturday, July 14

    May the Force be with San Diego Comic-Con visitors as LEGO Systems unveils the new LEGO Star Wars Rancor Pit construction set, one of 20 new LEGO Star Wars sets launching in 2013 and a sneak preview of the latest LEGO Star Wars episode slated to air on Cartoon Network. To complete this day’s expedition, a one-of-a-kind 5-inch Luke Skywalker in LEGO form will be given away to one lucky winner who enters the raffle."

    Edit: Oops, wrong link. That should be the right one now.
  • GIR3691GIR3691 Member Posts: 672
    Remember how the LEGO Minecraft set ($34.99 USD) was temporarily sold out at [email protected]? Well, it's still available at Jinx.com and it's back in stock on [email protected], but it's consistently selling for $60-$70 on eBay. What's the deal with that?
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    Well it just came back in stock at [email protected] and a lot of people on ebay don't know how to research stuff and they just see stuff and buy it.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM IrelandMember Posts: 969
    10212 still available on [email protected] for me, taken all the way to order confirmation. Must...not...press...confirm....
  • tvihtvih Member Posts: 92
    ^^^ [email protected] does weird stuff. When the minecraft set sold out I could search for it and get the listing page but when you clicked on more info or tried to add it it went to an error page. It's like their website display and their ordering system are completely separate and need to be manually synced when they add or delete.
    When the Kingdoms Chess Set first went out of stock in Europe and then came back, at first it showed Available Now in the product page and wishlist, but still said sold out in search results... their systems indeed don't seem to be synced that well :)

    I also noticed that their billing system is kind of strange. Like despite originally doing a "credit reservation" or whatever it's called on my account when I ordered the chess set and some pick a brick stuff a month ago, they only actually charged the chess set more than a week later (with a separate, overlapping credit reservation), and only yesterday charged the pick a brick parts! That's a bit strange, if you ask me.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    10212 still available on [email protected] for me, taken all the way to order confirmation. Must...not...press...confirm....
    Yep, now it is back, listed as shipping Oct 1st.

    So we may well see this for Black Friday after all... :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^ Beat me to it...
  • tvihtvih Member Posts: 92
    Does [email protected] have worldwide Black Friday discounts? I mean for example BF isn't really "observed" in Finland, but it'd be nice if [email protected] would still have some discounts ;) BF would have poor timing for me personally though, early Dec is when I'd have money to spend!
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