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Comments
I think if LEGO is not careful they could see another late 90's swoon.
There seem to be parallels to now and the late 90's:
-Supply chains spread out everywhere
-Too many part types causing strains on the production capacity.
-Designs that seem 'phoned in' but sets still costing more for what they are (looking at Pirate and even SW lines).
And now add:
-Poor QA
-Too many sets, apparently straining capacity for manufacturing sets causing many to be temporarily out of stock.
If it was not for the licenses (specifically SW now Disney) I think LEGO would be in deep trouble and they are only one license away from having financial issues I think.
As a LEGO blogger I was recently in touch with someone inside the company who told me that LEGO is threading waters very carefully right now. While for us they look like they are everywhere and hugely expanding with abandon, on the inside they are being very conservative, keeping everything in a tight grip. They know this is a wild ride and have to keep a cool head.
Will there be problems? Probably. It is already happening with not being able to keep up with demand on LEGO sets, the online shop not being able to keep up with traffic, and quality slipping here and there. These are inevitable side-effects of so much growth. But the point is that they are not just going with the flow starry eyed, but making every effort to keep their feet on the ground.
It seems like LEGO is trying to do more for less and more often than naught companies that do this tend to ignore warning signs until it is too late.
During the early naughts, LEGO fired a lot of their designers and instead hired outside "experts" who were unfamiliar with LEGO brand strategy — people who did not have faith in the selling power of the traditional LEGO building experience. They misread the rising popularity of video games and assumed it meant kids wanted nothing more than instant gratification (hence the "juniorized" builds of the time), when in fact it had more to do with kids wanting to put their skills to the test and master new challenges.
These days, I don't see much risk of this. LEGO Star Wars is still big money for the LEGO Group (more so than any other license), but the top-selling themes also include in-house themes like LEGO City, LEGO Friends, LEGO Duplo, and LEGO Creator, and the LEGO Group continues to invest heavily in those themes.
Additionally, LEGO puts lots of research and development time into new initiatives instead of just throwing money at them and rushing them to production before they even know that there's a market for them. LEGO Friends and The LEGO Movie were each in development for about four years, and that means LEGO had time to get them right. The most radical new initiatives, the ones like LEGO Life of George and LEGO Fusion that come out of LEGO's "Future Lab", are designed as low-risk initiatives so that should they fail, they don't take a huge bite out of the company's bottom line.
I really encourage all LEGO fans to read "Brick By Brick" to get a better sense about just why the LEGO Group fell to the brink of bankruptcy in the early naughts and how they turned it around and developed a strategy for SAFE and RELIABLE innovation.
I tend to think that product gambles like that, even though they are innovative, landing with a thud in the marketplace hurts the brand. Sure they can absorb the $ impact of the fail, but honestly, why even allow anything like that to happen at all? Fail in the R&D stage, not in the home of a consumer.
Not sure what, if any, conclusions to draw from this
I imagine during the next economic recession, these stores will scale back on the shelf space since Lego is a pretty expensive toy.
I'm sure we can all remember brands and toy lines that have dominated the landscape over the years. Hasbro's Star Wars line is a great example, through the 80's it was indestructible and then it wasn't but 10 years later it came back, lessons learnt and it has been going strongly since the mid 90's, evolving and trying new things, some years better than others but thats life.
Lego as a brand is now doing the same thing, lines are kept fresh, strong IP's are partnered with and they are trying new things (for them) in a measured way. Some will work, some won't, they may slip back down to second or third in the worlds biggest toy manufacturer rankings at some point but that will be about as bad as it gets I think.
Mega and Kre-o are trying to get a larger foothold by going the licensing route, which Lego has had success with.
They may be offering a larger profit margin to the big box stores so that's why they are more prominent. And while Lego continues to sell out, remain in low quantity, or rotates new items, the same Mega and Kre-o boxes sit on the shelves.
Heck, Kre-o has been on advertised sale TWICE in the past few months at TRU!
I have some Kre-o Transformers and GI Joe for nostalgia, but the playability (balancing the figure with the parts/accessories) is awful. They're best put together and placed on a shelf to gather dust like a model.
As long as I have my plastic blocks, I'm happy :)
It wasn't a complete waste of time of course, because the technology went on to be used to integrate the Air into their standard offering of premium laptops where it managed to fit much more sensibly, just as Lego has taken elements of it's flops and integrated them into successful lines.
So you can't really expect Lego to have no flops, because no company has this, not even Apple. Even having more flops than successes isn't the end of the world- look at Google, they've tried so many things and failed but they have such a strong bottom line from their ad business it doesn't matter.
What really hurts companies is when they started having repeated expensive flops. That's the real warning sign. Say for example that Lego decided to revamp it's Star Wars line with some stupid new idea that killed interest in the entire line, that's when you know management has lost competence and will struggle to recover.
It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the other brands are giving retailers extra discounts/incentives to get more shelf space at a time when Lego is proving very popular.
The end buyer normally only knows a very small part of what went on to get that product to them.
I can pratically here the doomsday clock ticking down. between new themes and themes that already exist, them approving of more movies after the "success" of the over-rated TLM, that stupid thing that's a copy of skylanders/disney infinity/amiibos being announced, the lego MMO thing, and basically everything else they are doing; it's not going to end well.
They need to stop for 5 minutes and stop making stupid choices. Why is it with the prices being so high, we are stuck with mostly stickered stuff? I haven't applied the stickers in years and the model looks really bad at times w/o the detail. Why is it they are creating more and more specialized stuff that has little value like even more stinking vehicle parts or weird stuff like 2x2 round jumpers?
I think Lego is fine. Things will go back to normal when the talk about the movies settle down and maybe when Lego is done with some of it's themes (Simpsons, Scooby Doo).
On the other hand, I expected the whole superhero movie craze to die down too, so who knows?
Lego does seem to be learning though. As mentioned, LotR/Hobbit and PotC were big flops. I feel like that's because more adults than kids were interested in those sets, and the sets weren't the big, complicated builds that adults enjoy. So with The Simpsons being very much an adult centered license, they have shifted to just releasing big collector's sets.
Just my thoughts on it.
TLG is indeed learning what works well in terms of set design and size allocation. Just look at the recent Superhero lines, all are near perfectly sized and priced to move. Especially the low to mid tier sets like Green Lantern, Brainiac, Hulk Buster. The new Pirates line was downsized to fit their young child demographic better. And then they hit the hardcore collectors hard in the wallet at max price range because they know they can get away with it such as the Helicarrier, Sandcrawler, SOH/TB, etc.
My critique on them wouldn't be on the set design/license area as much as it would be about their draconian retail policies (in the US at least) and turning a blind eye to escalating Quality issues. The former was very off-putting on a personal level, the latter is concerning for all collectors whether casual or hardcore. Crazy part for me, is the lack of even acknowledging there's an issue with their brick quality nowadays as if it's not real or happening.
But when it comes to the Superhero movie part, you're on your own buddy. Because IMO, we're only getting warmed up with the best stuff yet to come. So buckle up, it's gonna be a long decade of Superheros :p
And I do agree about the Simpson related idea. It is a "family/kid" theme, but in reality adults are the people buying it. My problem is, why didn't they do this with LOTR!! I'd love some better detailed larger scaled locations...My favorite theme mishandled, so sad.
I said "success" since I honestly question some factors of the movie from the plot and plot twist to how can lego movie sets exist in the movie when the plot is being made right then and there. I saw the movie and I hated it. I've tried to like the movie but i just can't.
And quality product? Ok sure, let me see. I pay 10 dollars for a lemonade stand and the flush mounted stud brick is CRACKED after a week in a container and the thing was only assembled, not used. I pay 13 dollars for a fire truck on sale(the 20 dollar one) and i find that the spare hose is CRACKED. The only use it has gotten was when i attached it to a spare winch and wound it up. I've lost count on the number of people complaining about cracked parts w/ white parts and cheese slopes being 2 common stories. There's a person over on EB that had to send in over a hundred cracked parts of a HH to lego and another that wound up having to send back a bunch of simpson parts
when I pay extra for a lego set, or would be paying extra if it wouldn't be for the sale going on, instead of going for a mega blok or kreo set where the quality is nearly as good, it shouldn't be unreasonable to want printed stuff that lasts. Printed to me = a quality.
"Given that you hate every product that TLG releases, why are you even here?"
i don't hate everything the release dude! I love the looks of the minecraft stuff. I have the cave, have my fingers crossed for the C.B. to go on sale, and i want at least one summer release set. I have some interest in friends, especially when animals AND printed stuff is involved. I have interest in Ninjago to some extent and i love chima if i can catch it on sale. I love creator stuff sometimes and i used to be a MAJOR city fan until it began with the 3 tons of police and fire stuff with not much focus on other stuff. Even though i don't like TLM, i love the 2-in-1 vehicles since they look wacky.
And then lets not forget the moc catagory. When i do moc, it tends to be attempts and vehicles or buildings. i just finished one project(more or less) and I'm going to be doing a Bricklink order for parts that i need for at least 2 projects i want to do, possibly as high as 4 projects since i just had 2 major brainstorms come to light thanks to typing this stuff out.
why am i here? Mostly to read the brag thread, what are you buying, what are you building,the predictions thing.
". So with The Simpsons being very much an adult centered license, they have shifted to just releasing big collector's sets"
But that's really unfair to those on a tight budget and there should be different set sized available. I don't have 200 bucks to throw at a simpsons house or kwik-e-mart. If i was sitting on 200 bucks, i'd dragging my happy little tail in for a cleaning/xray/exam at the dentists office so i don't fall back into a severe phobia that's left me with 14 extractions(4 wisdoms that were past the of saving and 10 regulars) and partials!
why can't they have a wider variety of stuff so people have options? Can you really say there aren't people begging for a krusty burger, comic book shop, vehicles from the show, a hospital, etc? What about a homer in space ship set? What about a series of shops that hook together and could be a kind of like a mall set up? what about itchy and scratchy themed sets or the krusty show? There's enough stuff from the simpsons alone to keep that type of theme running for YEARS.
The Lego Movie was a commercial failure because you didn't understand that the 1st part of the movie was in the boy's imagination?
Dude, the point was the kid was making the models while he went. The process of the master builders throwing shit together in a few seconds isn't "real" time- it probably took a few minuets for the boy to do it.
Or were you surprised at how sets that appeared on shelves could have been put together by the boy because that's when they were created (if that makes any sense)? Because that logical falicy is even more mind blowingly wrong
Movies use tiny plot holes like this all the time
What's your favorite movie? I don't care what it is I can absolutely tear it apart. That's not the point of watching films though.
Just me entertained for a couple hours
Not exactly the exact context here but it works
What i can't understand is how can lego, a company that big and full of imagination, use a plot in 2014 that feels more like something that'd be better suited for the 1990's. As far as favorite movie?
Taking into account i don't see movies much and prefer stuff like worlds dumbest, good eats, newlywed game, and rupauls drag race: the only movie i call my favorite would be the simpsons movie. You want to tear apart that movie? knock yourself out dude! Oh, and to save you a step, don't bother pulling the "dr nick died but seen alive later in episodes" card since it's already been discussed on wiki. The incident has been explained as he actually just passed out and was fine.
And what doesn't make sense is that the stories and characters were being created there during the movie so some of the parts, you know stuff like the piece of resistance and Emmets hair, shouldn't of even existed!
what about parts in colors that didn't even exist until the sets were made so where did THOSE parts come from?
Besides, there is a loooooooonnnnnnggggg history of cartoons that are basically just commercials for selling toys. Actually pretty much every single one- even down to something like Seasame Street
I figured that's explination enough
And I'm not sure the whole "90's story" argument is all that valid either. It's been well stated by people way smarter then either of us that all stories ever told in the history of mankind follow basically the same storyline.
(It's part of the reason I don't understand why people spend money to watch romantic comedies. You know how the entire thing is going to play out just from the commercial)
PS- I havnt seen the Simpsons Movie since it was in the theaters. Not a terribly huge fan myself.
PPS- I hope it's obvious that I'm playing Devil's Advocate here because it's the nature of my personality type. The Lego Movie was a fun flick about toys but we arnt talking about Citizan Kane here
Seriously, I don't think LEGO will be going anywhere, it will just have ups and downs like any business, although I think the development of other certain countries copies might be somehting to worry about, but that's another thread already being discussed.
Lego is fine and their bottom line is as well.
At Walmart, Lego has a much longer full aisle with two end caps, but the sets aren't stacked as deep. I haven't seen the friends aisle.
Lego may rise and fall, but unless something really bad happens that is completely beyond their control, like Kre-o bombing the Lego corporate headquarters, I don't think they will go out of business.