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red237
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## Comments

39240238763879,1692,8741,9083926246479,16953http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coupon_collector's_problem

On average, for a 16 figure set you'd need to buy 55.

9,169Apparently I bucked the system when series 13 came out by picking 14 of the 16 figures from 16 packs randomly at a LEGO store. Only one each extra of the snake charmer and explorer. Still cannot believe that, sadly did not win the lottery that night (likely used my luck up for that day on the pick)

4773,950356265871941,381443384794599,1692,8741,135535682,8746244592,8742,874http://www.bricklink.com/catalogItemInv.asp?S=10682-1

6472,8742,4232,8746242,391In order to expect to receive at least one of all 16 CMFs, you would have to had ordered at least 55 CMFs. At roughly $2 per CMF (on sale), you would have to pay $110 (plus tax) to get all 16 CMFs. That works out to be about $6.88 cents per CMF to complete your set by trying to get it from TLG.

Based on your order of 32 CMFs, the probabilistic expectation is that you should have only received between 10 and 11 unique CMFs. In your case you received 13, so you came out as well as someone purchasing 42 random CMFs.

In short, you actually saved $20...

Note: All these numbers assume a completely random probability in the CMF selection. Based on the other numbers above, it appears that TLG does actually try to provide more variety than just a random selection.

3,950329#76004 Spider-Man™: Spider-Cycle Chase - 15.98

#76005 Spider-Man™: Daily Bugle Showdown - 39.98

#70804 Ice Cream Machine - 23.98

#70805 Trash Chomper - 23.98

#70505 Temple of Light - 55.98

2999,1696546242,3914772,391