Next Expert Train?

Paperballpark

How reliable is this? Does the person who has posted it have form for knowing what sets will be coming out? I'm not trying to cast doubt, just curious.

Pitfall69

See, this is what I don't understand. There is nothing wrong with asking how someone came upon such knowledge. I don't think one needs to apologize for asking unless they are being a total "DB". I also don't like out of the blue postings without some sort of explanation.

Farmer_John

polarbomber said:

next lego train is a holiday express released in autumn 2015

and

Paperballpark said:

How reliable is this? Does the person who has posted it have form for knowing what sets will be coming out? I'm not trying to cast doubt, just curious.

Frankly, it's okay to cast doubts based on the history of speculation surrounding Lego sets. There's endless debate about when a set is going to be retired...I would expect no less regarding a specific statement on a new set that's going to appear a year out (unless of course it's coming from @Huw). ;-)

Paperballpark

Exactly; there's no explanation or anything. For all I know he simply forgot to put "I hope" at the start of his sentence.

crazycarl

madforLEGO said:

polarbomber said:

next lego train is a holiday express released in autumn 2015

If that gets confirmed expect A LOT of #10173 to hit the market on eBay and BL.

hopefully they will sell for less than the $500 average people want for the 10173. That's just out of hand. I want it, but will not buy it till the lego collectability bubble pops. hopefully it will pop sooner than later. Kinda like the comic book bubble popped. I would pay $150 for it. No more.

KingDave

^ There is one big difference between Lego and comics. A lot of Lego is bought to be taken out the box and played with. This means there is an ever decreasing suply of old sets which will only srimulate the price.

*I am not a collector or re-seller.

cheshirecat

Indeed, even I don't think there's a bubble to burst, it might deflate like an old balloon but not burst. Minifigure prices on the other hand could as their intrinsic value is tiny and their clearly fairly easy to reproduce. Off topic though, other than you'll be waiting a long time to get a #10173 for $150

Shib

^I move we stop referring to a Lego Bubble and start using the term 'The Lego Old Balloon"

MCNwakeboard

New Train would be awesome but not holding my breath based on one statement. I haven't even put together Santa's workshop yet so I it's obvious that I'm not as excited about the current set.

Istokg

Norfolk & Southern, one of America's largest railways celebrated their 30th anniversary 2 years ago, by painting 20 of their diesel locomotives in the colors of many of the historic railways they've merged into their line. These provide an awesome assortment of historic designs and colors...

Individual designs in many colorful locomotives...
http://www.nscorp.com/content/nscorp/en/news/norfolk-southernsheritagelocomotives.html

ecmo47

^It's so colorful that it looks like a model train set-up! By the way, I noticed in that German catalog released that showed the new Super hero sets there is no mention of a new train set.

GallardoLU

Expert sets tend to only appear after an announcement (barring leaks) so to not see it in the catalog just means it wont be available In January but a mid year release is still a possibility. (and what I've been expecting through this whole thread)

KingDave

No news of a new Expert Train out of New York this week, the pictures of #60098 Heavy Haul Train from Copenhagen are not tremendously inspiring either (it's just a clone of #7939 Cargo Train, in red). Why can TLG not see the demand for trains, especially as they seem to have sold out of ALL the current trains on [email protected] at the moment (at least in the UK). What a disappointment.

http://shop.lego.com/en-GB/Trains-ByTheme

madforLEGO

KingDave said:

No news of a new Expert Train out of New York this week, the pictures of #60098 Heavy Haul Train from Copenhagen are not tremendously inspiring either (it's just a clone of #7939 Cargo Train, in red). Why can TLG not see the demand for trains, especially as they seem to have sold out of ALL the current trains on [email protected] at the moment (at least in the UK). What a disappointment.

http://shop.lego.com/en-GB/Trains-ByTheme

Just looked up the pics for the heavy Haul train.
A bit underwhelming but not surprising based on the last 'special edition' train here in #3677.
Ill probably get one or two anyway (if on sale), but hoping that this is not a TRU exclusive in the US, or its 'retail' is likely to be 200 USD (where as [email protected] will likely be about 180 USD) and TRU will then move the existing Cargo train to be 220 USD 'retail' My guess (hope) is that the next 'expert' train is to be announced and it has a 102XX number. If the Heavy Haul really is that 'expert' train then LEGO really is 'phoning it in' this year with some of their set designs.

KingDave

Surely #60098 Heavy Haul Train can't be an Expert Train, that would be very poor from Lego. I am still hoping for some sort of steam based train, a modern (ish) steamer from China would be interesting. Something like this;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQNn0HVBlQI

Come on TLG, expanding markets in the East......

Duq

KingDave said:

Why can TLG not see the demand for trains?

TLG are pretty good with their market research. Believe me, if they don't see demand for trains it's most likely because it isn't there.
Want to know how popular trains are? Look up the train with the most votes on Ideas...

devilhead

Maybe the plan was for one steam engine (Emerald Night), one diesel (Mersk), and one electric (Horizon Express) then end Creator trains... at least for a while.

PeteM

We've had 9 trains issued in 6 years (including #60098), which isn't bad... And the release of the 2014/15 City train sets followed the 2010/11 release pattern as expected.

It may just be my perception but there seems to be a glut of AFOL-aimed products at the moment - more than ever before. There needs to be a scheduling and production capacity 'gap' for a Creator Expert train to fit in, and it may be that it's been unlucky on that front with everything else Lego has stacked up for the AFOL market this year...

piratemania7

I'd like to imagine TLGjust switches it up and maybe gives us another holiday train....

madforLEGO

Duq said:

KingDave said:

Why can TLG not see the demand for trains?

TLG are pretty good with their market research. Believe me, if they don't see demand for trains it's most likely because it isn't there.
Want to know how popular trains are? Look up the train with the most votes on Ideas...

Many love the trains, but do not like the price of them.
Not sure if LEGO is gouging. They said one of the reasons why they moved from 9v was due to rising costs and that if it was all in house it would be cheaper, but after they said that it seems prices have one gone up a lot for the train sets. So cheaper for LEGO, but not for the customer apparently.
I'm sure many children love the Cargo train, but I doubt their parents love the 199.99 USD price point for it.

KingDave

@Duq I was basing the level of demand for trains on [email protected] (UK) currently being sold out of ALL trains (that aren't Duplo). I think that either shows a strong demand, or that they just decided to stop production on them all at once for some reason.

piratemania7

As a child growing up it was one of my biggest childhood disappointments never getting a train.

KingDave

^ I only ever got a single #7820 Mail Van and never got a train to go with it. I think that was worse than never getting any train stuff at all!

madforLEGO

piratemania7 said:

As a child growing up it was one of my biggest childhood disappointments never getting a train.

Me too, I think that is why I overcompensated and have nearly every one from 1980 on til now. Just missing #7750 I think now.

Rails

I got #7722 as a kid and trains are what actually drew me out of my dark ages when I bought #7939 in 2010. Long live Lego trains! :smile:

berniebond

jack_bricks said:

I would love to see this set as the next train set

I have just fallen in love with this DB Br 103 Train Version. To such an extent that not even the tan train window prices would scare me off.

Does anyone know, who designed this, and how to get maybe a parts list or instructions- or at least more detailed pics.

berniebond

graphite

Rails said:

I got #7722 as a kid and trains are what actually drew me out of my dark ages when I bought #7939 in 2010. Long live Lego trains! :smile:

#7722 was one of my first sets as a kid as well and when I got back into LEGO a few years ago I rebuilt that one first. I've since converted it to PF along with the 15-20 or so other trains I now have =)

danstraindepot

Lego Trains got me to build a huge Lego train layout with my boys. Yeah... it did not stop there....

I actually wish Lego would team up with the model train industry to bridge the gap between high end model trains, and Thomas the Train little kid stuff.

I had extensive discussions about this with a Lego rep, and was willing to make a substantial investment into Lego, but the Lego Group is not too interested in changing their marketing. Much of the train stuff is direct only, and they would not consider a large volume sale to a dealer that did not include the entire product line.

I do understand their perspective, but as many have already noted, this is a great way to merge two hobbies!

Faedian7

I came out of my dark ages in large part because of Emerald Night and the Maersk trains. I absolutely love the train themes and wish they would do more with the creator trains. I also intend to do a layout one day which is why I also picked up the modular line. It is a slippery slope for sure... :)

Pitfall69

The early 12V trains had lots of extra stuff you could buy to add to your layout like track lighting and remote signals. I wish we had that stuff now. I understand we can make our own, but some of us aren't great MOCers.

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

The early 12V trains had lots of extra stuff you could buy to add to your layout like track lighting and remote signals. I wish we had that stuff now. I understand we can make our own, but some of us aren't great MOCers.

I have a ton of 12v that I have accrued over the time of buying some lots from Australia so I have the rails and switches and even the signals, I bought a power adapter/ converter from Amazon and just trying to get some time to set it all up and see how the trains run, being so old. A great thing is the #7777 Idea book for trains which shows a lot of things using the power from the 12v converter. Definitely had more 'tricks' in its bag. I liked 9V for its simplicity, but I wanted 12v to be able to have the signals, remote switches and whatnot.

PeteM

Pitfall69 said:

The early 12V trains had lots of extra stuff you could buy to add to your layout like track lighting and remote signals. I wish we had that stuff now. I understand we can make our own, but some of us aren't great MOCers.

I've reviewed a few of the 12v sets on the main site (including the remote signal not two days ago!), and have had to force myself not to end every single one by lamenting the lack of accessories available for the train line nowadays.

I'm sure Lego's market research backs up that such things wouldn't sell these days for whatever reason; but for me, once I had the basic train set, I was getting related Lego products for birthdays and Christmas for years afterwards - I was caught! Whereas now, apart from extra track, there's nothing to build that fanbase and generate repeat income from expansion packs (having to buy two Horizon Expresses doesn't count :) )

KingDave

I don't think TLG are looking at trains (and train peripherals) in the right way, or rather they are looking at them in the same way as any other Lego set. If they released some well designed crossings, lights, train shed, rolling stock etc then those sorts of items could quite easily be sold for 5-10 years. It seems most Lego sets are designed with an estimated shelf life on 1-3 years (at best) shelf life before they are retired. I don't think they should be basing their calculations on new train sets using the same formulas as any other set.

The demand for trains is probably lower than a lot of other ranges, but if they were able to sell a set at lower volumes but for a greater period the cost benefits would come back in the long run. As some have already pointed out, there is a lot of room (or there would be) to open Lego trains up to the wider train/hobbyist market if they would only develop and widen the range a bit more.

Is it at all likely that someone within TLG will be reading this thread at some point for market research?

madforLEGO

KingDave said:

I don't think TLG are looking at trains (and train peripherals) in the right way, or rather they are looking at them in the same way as any other Lego set. If they released some well designed crossings, lights, train shed, rolling stock etc then those sorts of items could quite easily be sold for 5-10 years. It seems most Lego sets are designed with an estimated shelf life on 1-3 years (at best) shelf life before they are retired. I don't think they should be basing their calculations on new train sets using the same formulas as any other set.

The demand for trains is probably lower than a lot of other ranges, but if they were able to sell a set at lower volumes but for a greater period the cost benefits would come back in the long run. As some have already pointed out, there is a lot of room (or there would be) to open Lego trains up to the wider train/hobbyist market if they would only develop and widen the range a bit more.

Is it at all likely that someone within TLG will be reading this thread at some point for market research?

I think again LEGO does not want to do that. Part of the reason why LEGO sells sets at retail is because it could be discontinued. While there are exceptions (Mods and DS) most sets have a shelf life ('buy now, or regret later').
Though I agree fully that such an idea would be nice for those into the trains. I know I would buy those accessories.
But the other issues are:
- LEGO always falls back to 'well trains do not do that well' (not because people do not like trains, they do not like LEGO exorbitant prices for them)
Same with train cars, LEGO has tried this before with my own train cars, but again not many people bought more than the tanker cars (those were the first to sell out) and they had to discount many of them to get rid of them.

-LEGO did try to sell just locos (heck you could even 'customize' your loco as well) and train cars before and I'm sure they would argue it did not do as well as they would have liked. LEGO had to discount much of those cars, so again they did try to make trains 'big', but the prohibitive cost of the cars and large train sets themselves hurts that. (A rolling stock chassis would probably run at least 10-15 USD and you still have no track or motor, all of which costs more). LEGO can also argue you do have rolling stock. Go to PaB online and buy the parts.

-Finally I think there is the often overlooked larger issue that not every kid has the space to build a large train layout in LEGO scale (and having a small little oval is boring to say the least, but again extra tracks costs you more), means that LEGO produces trains still but are not going the extra mile for them as their target audience, kids, are likely prohibited either due to space or cost, or both.
We should be thankful they make the 'creator expert' trains still in addition to one passenger and one cargo train and hope LEGO does not revert back to a 'station, a cargo train, and a passenger train' days

KingDave

'We should be thankful they make the 'creator expert' trains still in addition to one passenger and one cargo train and hope LEGO does not revert back to a 'station, a cargo train, and a passenger train' days '

I fear that may have already happened.

drdavewatford

^ Indeed - that seems to be where we are now.... In fact, all you can currently buy from LEGO [email protected] is the station.

danstraindepot

Everyone's points are valid. But as was brought out by KingDave, our thought was to expand Lego's market. At the large train shows, its getting to be that the huge Lego train displays are one of the most popular, if not the most popular, areas to visit. So while it would appeal perhaps more to adults than children, what a great hobby to share with your child. Most serious hobbyists are not going to allow there children to help them, as things are just too expensive and fragile, not to mention take a great deal of skill and expertise to build.

However what parent, or grandparent would not love to build with their children (grand children). And unlike Thomas the Train which you roll around on a track, this really works with the kids understanding of not only building, but how to build a model railroad one day if they prefer.

So if Lego would allow Model Train shops to sell train specific product, buildings, etc. (but not the stuff that has no relation whatsoever) this could potentially expand their market,and furthermore could be a real boost to the model railroad hobby industry as many small shops are struggling and could use an alternative product line to sell.

drdavewatford

^ I think the problem is production capacity, and the fact that an extensive roster of trains and accessories aren't catering for LEGO's core demographic; while you're right that LEGO *could* go after the train hobbyist should they choose to do so, it would have to be at the expense of existing sets aimed at kids, and it's plain that LEGO don't plan to prioritise other age groups over children any time soon.

TheLoneTensor

While we wait for Lego to get on track, ahem, these guys have solved one of my biggest restrictions in taking Lego trains to the next level - track radii.

http://www.me-models.com/store/index.php?cPath=22_57

canon03

^ Nice find. Wish they had metal track available.

dougts

danstraindepot said:

At the large train shows, its getting to be that the huge Lego train displays are one of the most popular, if not the most popular, areas to visit.

One of the reasons they are so popular is because they are unobtainable for 99% of the audience. It's grandiose, it's awe-inspiring, it's incredible. You are paying a ticket to see something you *can't* have at home but that you wish and dream about. that popularity doesn't/can't translate to mass sales.

danstraindepot

"it would have to be at the expense of existing sets aimed at kids"

I'd like to think the worlds #1 toy manufacturer could, add to, and not replace something else in their line. Personally I think they do such a large scale business, and are so good at it, that they do not see any need to branch out into something that they may not feel will bring back the same return on investment. Of course its hard to quantify the escalation of customers and what they may end up purchasing (cost of customer acquisition) vs. effort & cost in a different category.

Also the other major hurdle we faced when discussing our plans with them, is they are very strict on not selling outside of your country. In our case a large portion of our clientele is international. How could we add Lego items to our international website, but not offer them to our (very important) international clientele? That was really the deal breaker right there for us.

And again, I fully understand Lego's need to protect their current distribution system, and very large existing reseller base. I guess the moral of it, is when a company gets this large its not always easy to cater to every need, or desire, from a very diverse customer base.

graphite

canon03 said:

^ Nice find. Wish they had metal track available.

They will. Currently in production I believe. I got my ABS order from the Kickstarter a few weeks ago and the metal tracks were going to take longer as the production is more complicated. Not sure when they're expecting them but they will have them eventually.

madforLEGO

canon03 said:

^ Nice find. Wish they had metal track available.

graphite said:

canon03 said:

^ Nice find. Wish they had metal track available.

They will. Currently in production I believe. I got my ABS order from the Kickstarter a few weeks ago and the metal tracks were going to take longer as the production is more complicated. Not sure when they're expecting them but they will have them eventually.

The last I checked ME was making metal rails, but they were going to be something like 4-5 dollars per piece (at least for a straight piece), at least that was the last I heard. If that is the case, it is not much cheaper (if not more) than buying LEGO 9v track on eBay.

TheLoneTensor

Perhaps, but the major (entire?) point of these is to get them in different curve radii.

graphite

madforLEGO said:

The last I checked ME was making metal rails, but they were going to be something like 4-5 dollars per piece (at least for a straight piece), at least that was the last I heard. If that is the case, it is not much cheaper (if not more) than buying LEGO 9v track on eBay.

Yeah, I haven't really paid attention to the metal rail version or cost since I do all PF for my trains. I have piles of 9V track that came with the trains that I keep so that the original sets are complete. They are making different curves and from talking to them a while ago one of the next things they want to do is produce a replacement 9V train motor. I'm sure if things go well they'll do switch tracks etc. One benefit to their track over the LEGO versions that I've seen so far is better options for attaching bricks/plates underneath so ballasting track has more options. Most people probably don't care but there may be some enthusiasts out there where that makes a difference.

Pitfall69

dougts said:

danstraindepot said:

At the large train shows, its getting to be that the huge Lego train displays are one of the most popular, if not the most popular, areas to visit.

One of the reasons they are so popular is because they are unobtainable for 99% of the audience. It's grandiose, it's awe-inspiring, it's incredible. You are paying a ticket to see something you *can't* have at home but that you wish and dream about. that popularity doesn't/can't translate to mass sales.

I will like to expand on this. There are a lot of people that have a hard time displaying their Lego sets and even fewer people have the room for a train layout. That percentage goes down even more, the lager the train layout is. People love trains, but layouts take up so much room and even simple sets are somewhat expensive ($199.99 for Blue Cargo Train).

Farmer_John

Has anyone taken the time to substitute colors for the Emerald Night to turn it completely black or some other color? Would love to see pictures of the completed set if some has done this.

TheLoneTensor

I'm going to continue to get teased by new posts in here waiting for the next Expert train to be announced.

klatu003

@Pitfall69 You have honed in on the essential problem with Lego trains.  For a satisfying layout you need about a 10 x 10 room dedicated to a setup with space to get around.  After moving the modulars and trains to the room-formerly-known-as-the -guest-toom, making enough track for the train station and cargo offloading and tracks enough for four trains to get out of each other's way, the space is pretty well taken over.  Future conversation?  Guest "Hey, we are thinking of visiting next month!"  Me "um, not a good idea, there is an infestation in the guest room that might hurt you."