Town Hall and Grand Emporium Retired!

mathew

rocao said:

That said, I echo that 2.5 years of general availability for Town Hall is quite standard. The belief that modulars are centerpiece sets with longer production runs or will retire in the order they were introduced are self-made constructs.

There's nothing standard about how Lego decides to EOL a modular. Fire Brigade and Grand Emporium were available for roughly four years each. Now we have Town Hall retiring, not only early, but out of order. Bottom line is that it probably didn't sell well because of it's high price point and lackluster design. But you can belittle me for that with your all knowing Legoness.

mathew

rocao said:

mathew said:

Lego really fudged up this year by EOL'ing a number of sets too soon for the holiday shopping season. Resellers gobbled up inventory and now Lego only has a handful of exclusives available for consumers this Christmas.

"Fudged up" is better than saying "heads will roll", but it seems like you still don't understand that it's better to sell all of discontinuing stock sooner rather than later. Also, you have an incomprehensibly large perception of hands if you think there are only a handful of exclusives still available.

I personally like "heads will roll" but I know it offends the softies in the audience.

rocao

mathew said:

There's nothing standard about how Lego decides to EOL a modular. Fire Brigade and Grand Emporium were available for roughly four years each. Now we have Town Hall retiring, not only early, but out of order. Bottom line is that it probably didn't sell well because of it's high price point and lackluster design. But you can belittle me for that with your all knowing Legoness.

Yeah, you're missing the point. If we graphed the distribution of the production lengths of ALL LEGO sets, I'd guess that 85% fell within 1.5 to 3 years, and the majority of those would be 2 to 2.5 years. There isn't a special shelf-life for modulars promised to us by LEGO and your sample size is awfully small to be surprised when it doesn't prove true.

CCC

mathew said:

rocao said:

That said, I echo that 2.5 years of general availability for Town Hall is quite standard. The belief that modulars are centerpiece sets with longer production runs or will retire in the order they were introduced are self-made constructs.

There's nothing standard about how Lego decides to EOL a modular. Fire Brigade and Grand Emporium were available for roughly four years each. Now we have Town Hall retiring, not only early, but out of order. Bottom line is that it probably didn't sell well because of it's high price point and lackluster design. But you can belittle me for that with your all knowing Legoness.

It didn't retire early, it retired earlier than expected. Only Lego knows when it was due to retire. They might have known from the start that it was going to have a shorter run, possibly to shake up sales patterns to make long term collectors change how and when they buy.

zipsforbananas

Thank you @Matthew‌ and @rocao‌ for bringing some sense back to this, even if you aren't agreeing with each other!.

A: From rocao, finite resources mean priorities within a wanted list based on all sorts of factors.
B: From Matthew, TH was retired with very little warning, arguably early, and out of order.
A + B = every reason to appreciate how some people missed out.

Normally I'd ignore these sorts of spats as symptomatic of all the internet robs from reasonable discussion, but I absolutely despise the sort of tone coming out where poor souls unfortunate enough to not be able to buy whatever they want whenever they want would be sniggered at were the real collectors to lower their noses long enough to acknowledge their existence.

zipsforbananas

rocao said:

There isn't a special shelf-life for modulars promised to us by LEGO and your sample size is awfully small to be surprised when it doesn't prove true.

But neither is the sample size large enough for you to have said that with such certainty before this happened. All modulars before FB were available for 2 years, all modulars since then have been for 4 years, and the releases have been regular.
Before this, a nice pattern was beginning to appear. Now it's clear it was no such thing, but all I've ever been saying is that it wasn't unreasonable to think a pattern was being established, even though that has now been shown to be wrong. I can't see how anyone can deny that.

prevere

mathew said:

rocao said:

That said, I echo that 2.5 years of general availability for Town Hall is quite standard. The belief that modulars are centerpiece sets with longer production runs or will retire in the order they were introduced are self-made constructs.

There's nothing standard about how Lego decides to EOL a modular. Fire Brigade and Grand Emporium were available for roughly four years each. Now we have Town Hall retiring, not only early, but out of order. Bottom line is that it probably didn't sell well because of it's high price point and lackluster design. But you can belittle me for that with your all knowing Legoness.

If you care enough to want any given set (minus a rare few), you can always Bricklink them post-EOL.

zipsforbananas

prevere said:

If you care enough to want any given set (minus a rare few), you can always Bricklink them post-EOL.

Oh no! Let's not start discussing whether that would constitute owning the set or not! ;)

TheLoneTensor

mathew said:

I'm not sure why there are those on this forum that attack those that don't have unlimited funds to purchase sets at RRP.

I'd like to point out that you won't be able to provide any example of any such "attack," anywhere on the forums.

madforLEGO

Farmer_John said:

Well, for those holding out hope that the TH will continue to be produced, here is a link from @Huw showing the back of the #10246 Detective Agency box:

http://brickset.com/article/13057/10246-detective-s-office-back-of-box#comments

If you look closely, you will see that the only sets included in the picture on the back of the box are the #10232 Palace Cinema, #10243 Parisian Restaurant, and #10246 Detective Agency modulars. Maybe it's nothing or maybe it's another nail in TH's proverbial coffin.

Well since this set is going to be out for some time Im guessing that is also why PS is not listed as PS will likely go this coming year so why show sets that will be long gone 3 years from now?
Though I see your point that it is likely gone for good, then again it still COULD ome back for one more year (or half year)

zipsforbananas said:

Thank you @Matthew‌ and @rocao‌ for bringing some sense back to this, even if you aren't agreeing with each other!.

A: From rocao, finite resources mean priorities within a wanted list based on all sorts of factors.
B: From Matthew, TH was retired with very little warning, arguably early, and out of order.
A + B = every reason to appreciate how some people missed out.

Normally I'd ignore these sorts of spats as symptomatic of all the internet robs from reasonable discussion, but I absolutely despise the sort of tone coming out where poor souls unfortunate enough to not be able to buy whatever they want whenever they want would be sniggered at were the real collectors to lower their noses long enough to acknowledge their existence.

Depends what is meant by '....out of order'. You are presuming that the TH was viewed by LEGO like all other mods, but it was really not IMO. It was bigger and more expensive than a standard mod. As for 'little warning' there have been plenty of sets in the past that retired 'with little warning' depending on who you talk to. Some are legit gripes (like #3222 and #9465), others are perceived abruptness (like 10228, or every other set that gets EOL'd in what appears is a normal cycle -like city sets or MF going away)

I think @CCC‌ said it best: 'It retired earlier than expected' and by 'expected 'it means people made assumptions about how long it would be out. And people should know what happens when they 'ass-u-me'.
LEGO has never said a set will be out for this long or that long, we are all basing it on previous expectancy. The Target exclusive MF #9465 The Zombies set probably 'should' have been out for 2 to 2.5 years (timeline of MF line), but it was gone in about 6 months, maybe a bit longer. Then Target puts out the Orc Forge that seems to last forever... There is no rhyme or reason and, unless you work in LEGOs dept that decides product runs, you do not know.
Heck even if you do work in that dept, who knows? It sounds like VW Van and DS are now around for another year. But I would not tell people to wait on it, get one now if you want them. Especially in the US as there are no discounts (but the VW van has had two promo periods now where buying it got you a mini VW Bus polybag).

And for those who claim to know when LEGO will precisely retire a set (other than 'sometime this year', look into that crystal ball and provide me the lottery numbers for tonight would you?

LegoFanTexas

mathew said:

I'm not sure why there are those on this forum that attack those that don't have unlimited funds to purchase sets at RRP. Lego really fudged up this year by EOL'ing a number of sets too soon for the holiday shopping season. Resellers gobbled up inventory and now Lego only has a handful of exclusives available for consumers this Christmas.

I don't see any attacks on people who lack the funds, if you see that, you're seeing something that I'm not.

I totally get that your average person doesn't set aside the money to buy all the exclusive and "hard to find" sets. Even those people who DO have the money, don't actually buy them all, that is a rare thing I'm sure. (I have no source, my gut just tells me that people don't do that, tell me if you disagree).

Have you considered that LEGO planned to have some of those sets gone sooner rather than later, SSD for example, to make room in the inventory, store shelves, and production, for sets that were newer and would move faster?

SSD was several years old, many people already have it, so the number of people who will buy it Christmas 2014 is a subset of all LEGO customers. A brand new set, on the other hand, has 100% of the possible customers of a LEGO set in that price range.

All I'm saying is that your suggestion that LEGO fudged up might not be accurate. It might well have been planned that way. I have no idea, just tossing it out there.

LegoFanTexas

rocao said:

Some people have limited disposable income to apportion to buying LEGO. It's common for the cost of want-lists to outstrip available funds at any given time. This is why many have adopted the practice of prioritizing want lists by retirement date, and that's what all the worrying is about. Retirement dates are more than just entry and exit triggers for investors.

Of course, and I don't think anyone intended to imply otherwise.

Put another way, if TLG releases 2 modulars a year and you only have the money for 1 per year, then you're simply going to have to pick which one you like and not be sad that you miss the other one.

If someone wanted GE and TH, fair enough, there was 2 years in which to buy TH, 4 in which to buy GE. If in that time you didn't get both, so be it. We can't have everything we want after all. :)

Being mad at TLG for not producing a set until you specifically can afford it is a bit nuts, quite frankly. And there will always be another set coming out after that. If you missed TH, so be it, DA will be out in January, buy that one instead.

prevere

zipsforbananas said:

prevere said:

If you care enough to want any given set (minus a rare few), you can always Bricklink them post-EOL.

Oh no! Let's not start discussing whether that would constitute owning the set or not! ;)

haha.

LegoFanTexas

CCC said:

It didn't retire early, it retired earlier than expected. Only Lego knows when it was due to retire. They might have known from the start that it was going to have a shorter run, possibly to shake up sales patterns to make long term collectors change how and when they buy.

^ This...

I didn't have any Palace Cinema in my inventory a few weeks ago... I have 2 of them now, 1 for sure to build and 1 to sell later to pay for that one (maybe 1 year, maybe 3, who knows, it is just one set so I don't worry too much).

This is actually a great way to get people off their duff and go order that set that was a "some day" purchase. TH probably didn't sell all that well, it never felt like it did to me, but I have no evidence to back that up.

So it was a good set to send out the door to both make room for a better selling modular, and to kick up some sales of other items from people who were sitting on the sidelines.

rocao

zipsforbananas said:

But neither is the sample size large enough for you to have said that with such certainty before this happened. All modulars before FB were available for 2 years, all modulars since then have been for 4 years, and the releases have been regular.

I'm referring to _all_ LEGO sets, so I'm not sampling. TLG has made no declaration that modular buildings are deliberately produced any differently than other sets in their price range or part count.

zipsforbananas said:

Before this, a nice pattern was beginning to appear. Now it's clear it was no such thing, but all I've ever been saying is that it wasn't unreasonable to think a pattern was being established, even though that has now been shown to be wrong. I can't see how anyone can deny that.

What I and others are saying is it's much safer to assume you have about two years to buy a set (apart from "Limited Edition" sets which have a track record of shorter availability). Connecting the dots to believe you have longer than that, particularly when you are doing so with only two dots, and especially when one of those dots is widely and plausibly believed to have had an extended run due to a bad production batch, is much riskier and, in this instance, proved to be a mistake.

LegoFanTexas

zipsforbananas said:

But neither is the sample size large enough for you to have said that with such certainty before this happened. All modulars before FB were available for 2 years, all modulars since then have been for 4 years, and the releases have been regular.
Before this, a nice pattern was beginning to appear. Now it's clear it was no such thing, but all I've ever been saying is that it wasn't unreasonable to think a pattern was being established, even though that has now been shown to be wrong. I can't see how anyone can deny that.

CC, MS, and GG were all 2 years.

FB and GE were 4 years.

That implies that PS would be 4 years as well, assuming you believe in such patterns, but the truth is, production plans are rarely made because of such things.

LEGO is a product, a physical good that is manufactured and sold based on demand for said product. TLG is still making Death Stars because they continue to sell, not because it fits a "pattern". Other sets go away after 1 year, perhaps due to a replacement, perhaps due to poor sales, there are many reasons.

Were I in charge of production at LEGO, a "pattern" is the last thing on my mind. What I want to know is what is selling and what are stores ordering. If something isn't selling, I couldn't care less what pattern exists, I want a new product that DOES sell.

Gavin83

Farmer_John said:

If you look closely, you will see that the only sets included in the picture on the back of the box are the #10232 Palace Cinema, #10243 Parisian Restaurant, and #10246 Detective Agency modulars. Maybe it's nothing or maybe it's another nail in TH's proverbial coffin.

They've only ever included 3 modular sets on the back of the box and it has always been the last 3 released. This doesn't mean anything.

Bumblepants

This is just phase II of getting everyone used to buying exclusive sets at retail and right away for fear of missing out.

zipsforbananas

LegoFanTexas said:

Were I in charge of production at LEGO, a "pattern" is the last thing on my mind. What I want to know is what is selling and what are stores ordering. If something isn't selling, I couldn't care less what pattern exists, I want a new product that DOES sell.

Too true. Which is easier to forget for the adult hobbyist: that TLG is a business, or that Lego is a child's toy?

wagnerml2

@mathew - I don't think that the forum attacks people who don't have enough funds. I think quite the opposite. This community does a good job of taking care of their own when people miss out or don't have access to a deal. I have had bricksetters purchase sets for me and sell them to me at their cost when they could have cashed in, and I have done the same.

I think what annoys some of us is when a set goes EOL and people freak out as if they were somehow caught blindside or otherwise entitled by TLG to have access to the set. If someone is a member of this forum and follows the threads somewhat, there is usually a pretty good idea of what is going and when it is going. Sure, everyone can't buy everything, I get that and I think others do to, but most people on a budget can still get most of what they want as long as they pay attention. I'll give you an example. I have not yet purchased TB. I like it. It's cool, but I haven't pulled the trigger. I have purchased a lot of newer sets instead, (PR and Tumbler come to mind.) If TB goes, and I don't have it, I have no one to blame but myself. At one point I had the funds, but I bought a newer set instead. I wanted that set more. I think those people who are in this some boat then feel slighted by TLG are the ones that annoy me.

CCC

^ some Lego sets are not children's toys :-)

CircleK

The TH retirement was unexpected but not *completely* unexpected if that makes any sense. The rumors were out there that TH may retire out of order due to slow sales. Wether that rumor was unfounded bs or not is a different story, but the heads up was there - I read it on this very forum more than once.

bp10030

I alway was a fan of the Le Grand Magasin #10211. What a beattiful nice old-modern bulding especially until here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haj5SpAUeFE

Sethro3

What is TB?

I agree if the sales aren't there, then the set won't last long. But you'd also sort of expect a pattern, only if sales also followed that pattern. I think TH is a lovely set and has a lot of fun details, but the cost ruined it. People see it as too expensive, instead of a better value for the more pieces and whatnot. If they had continued the same trend of mid 100s, who knows what we'd be talking about now.

Priorities can come and go, but LEGO will always produce new sets and replace old sets. Get what you can, when you can. If you don't have money for MSRP, you won't have money for aftermarket prices, especially on the Modulars.

Someone mentioned bricklinking it after it EOL..okay. If you go into bricklink for FB or any of the newer ones, the prices per piece is almost double-triple what the MSRP is. And that's just right now. Who knows what it would be like if rarer pieces were involved (like GG/CC). So think about that.

And with LEGO showing the last 3 on the back of the box, that means PS would be on its way out too sooner than later. The last three will be PC, PR, and now DO.

iso3200

^TB - Tower Bridge

Billybrown

bp10030 said:

I alway was a fan of the Le Grand Magasin #10211. What a beattiful nice old-modern bulding especially until here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haj5SpAUeFE

Thanks for posting. That video is going to cost me a fortune in lost revenue ;-)
I will have to take FB, GE and TH out of storage and start building, has anyone got a CC and GC they don't want ;-)?

Brickarmor

Sethro3 said:

Someone mentioned bricklinking it after it EOL..okay. If you go into bricklink for FB or any of the newer ones, the prices per piece is almost double-triple what the MSRP is. And that's just right now. Who knows what it would be like if rarer pieces were involved (like GG/CC). So think about that.

The difference is akin to that between the builder and the collector. If you want "THE" set, down to the box and instructions and panels without side supports etc etc, yes you will pay for it. If you just want to MOC up a Sand Blue Grocer or a MS sans white hose for your city layout, you can make it happen with parts you already have and a few BL orders for far less than either the part out value or the selling price of the complete set.

Farmer_John

Gavin83 said:

Here my prediction, TH will be back. I guess we'll just have to wait and see who's right...

From another thread...

Gavin83 said:

Farmer_John said:

If you look closely, you will see that the only sets included in the picture on the back of the box are the #10232 Palace Cinema, #10243 Parisian Restaurant, and #10246 Detective Agency modulars. Maybe it's nothing or maybe it's another nail in TH's proverbial coffin.

They've only ever included 3 modular sets on the back of the box and it has always been the last 3 released. This doesn't mean anything.

Of course it doesn't mean anything to someone predicting it will be back. But in reality, the most important fact is that it IS gone now in all stores in all countries (a few random sets no withstanding). Does anyone honestly expect a large set that is marked as "sold out" and no longer stocked anywhere for the past 6-8 weeks to start showing up again? Possible...yes. Probable...absolutely no.

Billybrown

TH has gone, it was gone today, it was gone last week and the week before and the week before that.... ....it's gone and if it comes back I will name my next child Lazarus.

TheLoneTensor

It's not gone, it's available for $330 right now. It certainly won't be cheaper than that a year from now.

Basta

^^ funny actually, Australian stores (The 3 that stock it anyway, David Jones, Toyworld & Little Sprout) had a last delivery of TH in the last few weeks. I know that two of these stores had them on the shelf yesterday and the other has them available for Click and Collect at some stores. I managed to pick a couple up at a good discount (20% off + an additional $20 of that amount) at the beginning of last week.

The ones still available are all at the RRP of $300AUD ($262USD) and so they sit there, as most of us AFOL already had our fill.

Anyway I am not suggesting they are not gone, but in Australia we tend to get a last minute batch of sets like this from time to time. Diagon Alley was the last, with Target here having some stock 3-6 months after it had disappeared from US stores & web sites, although that was partly due to the very high RRP of $279.99 (Back when out $ was at parity with the USD).

oldtodd33

Did anyone take rocao up on the bet? High price so far is 403.63 with shipping.

Basta

Prices in Australia reached close to $400 on eBay a week or so ago, but with a bunch of people getting them for $220AUD in the same sale I got mine, the prices have dropped.

Also one of the "Toy World" stores I mentioned has 10 available at RRP plus only $10 shipping.

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/NEW-LEGO-10224-Town-Hall-from-Mr-Toys-Toyworld-/321589052560?pt=AU_LEGO&hash=item4ae0338490

So I suppose for anyone in Australia who hasn't got one yet, it is probably best to get one now as they are available at close to RRP online and I'd guess once all these sell, prices will climb back to $400 fast.

rocao

oldtodd33 said:

Did anyone take rocao up on the bet? High price so far is 403.63 with shipping.

Nobody :(
With the mention of "pot odds", I was hopeful I had finally found someone that appreciates partaking in a good prop bet, too.

monkeyhanger

Surprise/short notice retirement seems to work well for TLG - as soon as there's a sniff of retirement they all get bought up at full RRP, no discounts required.

StuBoy

There's still a few TH's kicking around in New Zealand too. 20% off last weekend, rrp $350NZD. I bought the PR instead, there's something about the TH I just don't like, most likely the higher price! I'll probably regret it later, but I don't have a complete modular collection anyway, so its a bit easier for me to skip the TH.

ColoradoBricks

Meanwhile, today at TRU

wagnerml2

^ and with the TRU markup, its only $657.99

madforLEGO

ColoradoBricks said:

Meanwhile, today at TRU

I would almost guarantee that is a set that has been pilfered of its original contents and replaced with whatever then returned.
Did you pull the trigger? and if so, was it really the GE contents in the box?

ColoradoBricks

^No, I didn't they had at least 2 of them. I am a frequent buyer there, never had an issue, I once bought at that store for another bricksetter a #8043 that was there way past EOL, everything was good.

mathew

madforLEGO said:

ColoradoBricks said:

Meanwhile, today at TRU

I would almost guarantee that is a set that has been pilfered of its original contents and replaced with whatever then returned.
Did you pull the trigger? and if so, was it really the GE contents in the box?

Did you click to enlarge the picture? It's clearly a stocked item by the tag on the shelf. At $190, that's not a bad deal considering it's basically EOL and there have been numerous TRU coupons floating around.

madforLEGO

To see stock of these in any store after being gone for around 30 days tells me that they are likely returned.
While they could have been in the store at some point likely a major TRU like downtown Chicago or New York (Tags seem to stay on shelves until the set is officially removed from the system and even then tags seem to linger) I would say it would be more likely that they are also returns than just sitting there gather dust on the shelf all of this time, even at $190. But hey anything is possible.

I'm just saying anyone that sees one a shelf better take it to the counter and open it there, or take it home and open it, or weigh it against another box for any weight discrepancy. The odds of someone tinkering with the box are higher the more sought after the set.

margot

My TRUs never stock great sets like that. I wish.

Pitfall69

prevere said:

zipsforbananas said:

prevere said:

If you care enough to want any given set (minus a rare few), you can always Bricklink them post-EOL.

Oh no! Let's not start discussing whether that would constitute owning the set or not! ;)

haha.

Don't make me resurrect that thread again ;)

Buoerny

Over £500 here (once postage is included). Probably a bit optimistic expecting it to sell at that price.

http://www.pixmania.co.uk/lego-exclusives/lego-lego-creator-town-hall-10224/14832436-a.html

indigobox

^ Someone who wants it will pay it. :)

Billybrown

Buoerny said:

Over £500 here (once postage is included). Probably a bit optimistic expecting it to sell at that price.

http://www.pixmania.co.uk/lego-exclusives/lego-lego-creator-town-hall-10224/14832436-a.html

Maybe optimistic at the moment, but 8 - 12 Months time I think they will be going for £500 + Could even be the next MF if kept hold of in mint for long enough ;-)

rocao

I'll take the under :P

Pitfall69

Billybrown said:

Buoerny said:

Over £500 here (once postage is included). Probably a bit optimistic expecting it to sell at that price.

http://www.pixmania.co.uk/lego-exclusives/lego-lego-creator-town-hall-10224/14832436-a.html

Maybe optimistic at the moment, but 8 - 12 Months time I think they will be going for £500 + Could even be the next MF if kept hold of in mint for long enough ;-)

The next UCS Millennium Falcon or the UCS MF of the Modular Buildings theme? I would imagine it would have to overtake Cafe Corner to even mention it in the same breath as the UCS MF.

Billybrown

Pitfall69 said:

Billybrown said:

Buoerny said:

Over £500 here (once postage is included). Probably a bit optimistic expecting it to sell at that price.

http://www.pixmania.co.uk/lego-exclusives/lego-lego-creator-town-hall-10224/14832436-a.html

Maybe optimistic at the moment, but 8 - 12 Months time I think they will be going for £500 + Could even be the next MF if kept hold of in mint for long enough ;-)

The next UCS Millennium Falcon or the UCS MF of the Modular Buildings theme? I would imagine it would have to overtake Cafe Corner to even mention it in the same breath as the UCS MF.

I was meaning UCS Millenium Falcon - pro rata. But a better comparison would probably be Cafe corner and I can see it getting close to that, although it depends on how much more CC increases