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Town Hall and Grand Emporium Retired!

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Comments

  • joking_badjoking_bad Member Posts: 4
    Hey everyone. Just wanna ask a question without causing anger towards members but why is everyone racing to get TH and/or GE when it was released 3-4 years ago.
    Isn't plenty of time to buy it? (If someone was late to the party then I understand)
  • Jern92Jern92 Member Posts: 890
    joking_bad said:

    Hey everyone. Just wanna ask a question without causing anger towards members but why is everyone racing to get TH and/or GE when it was released 3-4 years ago.
    Isn't plenty of time to buy it? (If someone was late to the party then I understand)

    I got into modulars this year, so only started buying them around May. Managed to get all except CC, MS, and GG, and still waiting to buy PC when there's a sale
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    PC is the only one I haven't got either. I refuse to pay full price for it though, I'll wait until its around 25% off.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited November 2014
    pcirone said:

    IF it is in fact retired NOW and does not come back in stock anywhere for more than a few seconds then I will take that action.. my deadline would be $500 or more before 2015 closes out. We need a proxy to send both copies to first :-)

    With my true cost at around $160 w/tax the pot odds are just too good.

    The assertion was "give it one year, until next fall" which if we're now scrutinizing for terms of a bet, needs to be better defined. One year would be 11/8/2015. I focused on "until next fall" when I said "by next fall". That would suggest the start of fall, which is 9/23/2015. Your deadline of 12/31 stretches beyond both one year and the complete fall season, so I suggest we go with 11/8/2015.

    As for the condition of whether or not it's retired, I'd rather not attach conditions to complicate a relatively straight forward bet. We're both working from the same information: by all accounts it is retired and I know nothing of the contrary. What if some crazy person decides to corner the market on Town Halls like #41999 and single handedly inflates the price an additional $100+? For me, whatever happens is part of the gamble.

    So how about qty average bricklink selling price for a new Town Hall in November on 11/8/2015, o/u $500? Winner receives a NIB Town Hall from the other, or the cash equivalent of the bet deciding price. That will actually be the average selling price for 11/1 - 11/8, but that's a small window and not likely to have some price shock event. This does open the possibility of rigging the bet, but I trust you and hope you trust me (we could exclude severely outlying price points, if you wish). The same thing about trust goes for the need to proxy a set. That seems like a lot of unnecessary shipping.
  • zipsforbananaszipsforbananas Member Posts: 250
    joking_bad said:

    Hey everyone. Just wanna ask a question without causing anger towards members but why is everyone racing to get TH and/or GE when it was released 3-4 years ago.
    Isn't plenty of time to buy it? (If someone was late to the party then I understand)

    With GE it's that I wasn't paying attention, I totally get your point.
    But with TH it's that Lego retired it way before anyone could have expected. My beef is that FB was retired last year, GE was next and I was expecting to retire next, so after that it should be PS, and then TH. I foolishly ran out of time to get GE, but I should still have had plenty of time to get TH. Boo TLG!
  • pcironepcirone Member Posts: 346
    edited November 2014
    Oh I wasn't scrutinizing for terms, I was simply defining mine. You threw down the gauntlet by offering to wager a TH with the loosely defined term of "next fall" so I considered it and refined the scope of the horizon that I would be comfortable with to include next year's holiday season.

    Enotoga's original comment and my offer to take you up on the wager were both most assuredly predicated on the current assumption that TH is, in fact, retired. Unexpectedly. It is for this very reason that I am so bullish on it's appreciation potential. I am not interested in gambling on whether or not it is retired, only what it will be worth if it is.

    As for which indice to use, when I sell my copies it will be on eBay here in the United States. The global market represented on Bricklink is not indicative of how my investment will perform so I use the data over at Brickpicker as my barometer. If we were to wager, that's what I would want it based on.

    The proxy comment was sort of a joke, we've traded before with no problems.
  • pcironepcirone Member Posts: 346
    edited November 2014
    Actually, if we are wagering on the over/under of TH at $500 then the venue should matter not. I will further refine my conditions to include the average published price at Brinklink OR Brickpicker as it is consistent with the spirit of the wager to not limit WHERE the $500 could be obtained if one were to sell a copy of TH, just whether it would be possible.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    edited November 2014
    joking_bad said:

    Hey everyone. Just wanna ask a question without causing anger towards members but why is everyone racing to get TH and/or GE when it was released 3-4 years ago.
    Isn't plenty of time to buy it? (If someone was late to the party then I understand)

    Multiple reasons:
    -Not everyone has been collecting LEGO for the past 3-4 years
    -There are those that procrastinate, thinking ' well if it is out that long it will be out longer so I can wait to purchase it'
    -People are 'racing' to get their first copies, and then there are speculators buying them up since they know they are likely gone for good. This is due to the fact that in the US these sets no longer go on sale. This may also go to point 2. You could have newbies that got back into LEGO that assumed, incorrectly, that these get discounted in the US, therefore wait until someone puts them on sale or clearance. Neither of which will happen with 'exclusives' from LEGO, at least not in the US and only will change when LEGO decides to stop punishing US buyers for TLG's inability to price fairly across the globe. At least that appears to be the reason for lack of discounts on these sets now.
    It is this discount restriction which will also play into the remaining stocks of these sets scooped up right near EOL. Speculators figure that even at retail that they can make a killing on the secondary market as long as they can flip them right away for a decent buck (and I'm sure some are with TH, and definitely are with FB and HH as well. GE, well time will tell, seems to be a bit slow moving right now)
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited November 2014
    I'm pretty sure Town Hall is retired, so we can add that disqualifier to the bet.

    Brickpicker data relies on TeraPeak, which as I understand it scrapes auction listings for relevant search terms in addition to the ones that are properly identified. This introduces the possibility of false positives, which the Brickpicker FAQ says they then attempt to identify and remove. The fact that they need to do this, coupled with whatever flaws exist in their own filtering, underscores that the data is less reliable. Moreover, there are variables in listings on eBay that skew the data: Did the eBay listing include free shipping, so that shipping is built into the price? Did the eBay listing underprice the set but inflate the shipping charge? Was the item damaged but technically still new?

    It seems like a situation we might as well avoid when we have concrete data available from Bricklink. Bricklink data is complete and concrete. Copies listed as new on Bricklink are, by and large, new with little damage and do not include shipping. We can change the price guide setting to only display US sales. We can see for ourselves if there are any outliers and remove them.

    At any rate, if you want to use them both, that's ok. But it should be that BOTH need to indicate a winner. It doesn't seem fair to award a winner in the OR case. It will be anti-climatic for this to end in a tie, but if you want to include both, I'm pretty firm on this.

    Finally, and probably most importantly, 12/31 in no way is "one year's time" or "fall" which was the initial proposition. The first week of November -- 11/1 to 11/8 --meets both those original terms and is a compromise between the beginning of fall and the end of the year you wanted to expand it to. If you'd like to change the time period to 12/31, it's only fair that value be negotiated as well.

    I'm still very eager to make this happen. I imagine you are too since you have proven track records on your side and a nice overlay in your cheap entry point :)
  • pcironepcirone Member Posts: 346
    Too complicated.

    I still feel that $500 is probable by 12/31/15 (assuming a retired product) using BP -or- BL as an indice. When I want to know the current value of a set I just go to one or the other and see what comes up and go by that. The numbers they provide are not easily manipulated and leave no room for debate.

    These are my conditions and represent the wager I am willing to make.
    cheshirecat
  • evileddie1313evileddie1313 Member Posts: 126
    rocao said:

    I'm pretty sure Town Hall is retired, so we can add that disqualifier to the bet.

    Brickpicker data relies on TeraPeak, which as I understand it scrapes auction listings for relevant search terms in addition to the ones that are properly identified. This introduces the possibility of false positives, which the Brickpicker FAQ says they then attempt to identify and remove. The fact that they need to do this, coupled with whatever flaws exist in their own filtering, underscores that the data is less reliable. Moreover, there are variables in listings on eBay that skew the data: Did the eBay listing include free shipping, so that shipping is built into the price? Did the eBay listing underprice the set but inflate the shipping charge? Was the item damaged but technically still new?

    It seems like a situation we might as well avoid when we have concrete data available from Bricklink. Bricklink data is complete and concrete. Copies listed as new on Bricklink are, by and large, new with little damage and do not include shipping. We can change the price guide setting to only display US sales. We can see for ourselves if there are any outliers and remove them.

    At any rate, if you want to use them both, that's ok. But it should be that BOTH need to indicate a winner. It doesn't seem fair to award a winner in the OR case. It will be anti-climatic for this to end in a tie, but if you want to include both, I'm pretty firm on this.

    Finally, and probably most importantly, 12/31 in no way is "one year's time" or "fall" which was the initial proposition. The first week of November -- 11/1 to 11/8 --meets both those original terms and is a compromise between the beginning of fall and the end of the year you wanted to expand it to. If you'd like to change the time period to 12/31, it's only fair that value be negotiated as well.

    I'm still very eager to make this happen. I imagine you are too since you have proven track records on your side and a nice overlay in your cheap entry point :)

    While I appreciate you considering using Brickpicker's price guide values for your contest, I believe it is unfair to call the Brickpicker data flawed or less reliable than Bricklinks. They are two different marketplaces, thus two slightly different values. eBay's sales data usually runs slightly higher because of added fees, commissions and possible shipping costs included within free shipping listings, but that is what is being paid on the busiest LEGO resale site on the planet(twice as busy as Bricklink).

    If you want to run a contest, Jeff and I would be glad to furnish you with eBay sales data for any set(s) you desire. We will let you pick through the listings and remove any you feel are questionable. Let Jeff or I know if we can help you in any way.

    Thanks for your time...Ed Mack

    P.S.- The Town Hall is retired. ;-)





    minicoopers11pharmjod
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    If I were making the bet; the TH would have to be consistently selling for $500+ without Free Shipping included. There will always be anomalies. Someone with big pockets may shell out $550-600 for a Town Hall just because they want it; price not an option. I always sell my Lego with shipping included. I also sell NEW damaged boxes for a small discount. My bet would include neither. The question would be how big your sample size is.
    jasorrocao
  • jasorjasor Member Posts: 839
    Pitfall69 said:

    The question would be how big your sample size is.

    ....isn't that always the question? ;P
    Pitfall69
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    @evileddie1313‌ Yep, obviously they are different marketplaces, so when I compare the two, I'm speaking with respect to how clearly they can resolve the bet. If I'm seeking an answer to the average selling price of a NIB Town Hall on eBay, Brickpicker will give me a number that's probably pretty close, but the margin of error is not zero. Meanwhile, we can obtain the average selling price on Bricklink definitively.

    'Reliable' wasn't the perfect word, but i still think it's correct. The underlying variations in product condition and shipping price structuring on eBay, overlaid by the need for accurate terapeak and BP filtering introduces more moving parts with less clarity.
  • oldtodd33oldtodd33 Member Posts: 2,694
    You guys better hurry up with this bet. Of the 40 listings for TH on Ebay right now, 8 of those have an asking price of $500 or higher with 1 at $1700 AUS. The set is currently selling reliably for about $320.00 and it's not yet Christmas shopping season in full swing. It could go over $500 before THIS Christmas.
    pharmjodmadforLEGO
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    pcirone said:

    Too complicated.

    I still feel that $500 is probable by 12/31/15 (assuming a retired product) using BP -or- BL as an indice. When I want to know the current value of a set I just go to one or the other and see what comes up and go by that. The numbers they provide are not easily manipulated and leave no room for debate.

    These are my conditions and represent the wager I am willing to make.

    When I said "I'll take the under on average selling price of $500 by next fall. I'm willing to wager a Town Hall," you replied "I will take that action." If you only want to wager on the 12/31 date, that's not my action, that's a new bet :)

    But like I said, we can do 12/31, it just seems fair that if you're going to extend the date and include the busiest toy spending holiday of the year, you should be willing to allow for a higher price.

    How about Brickpicker showing a value of $575 by 12/31/15? Simple enough?
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    @oldtodd33 It sounds like someone should definitely take my action!
  • evileddie1313evileddie1313 Member Posts: 126
    rocao said:

    @evileddie1313‌ Yep, obviously they are different marketplaces, so when I compare the two, I'm speaking with respect to how clearly they can resolve the bet. If I'm seeking an answer to the average selling price of a NIB Town Hall on eBay, Brickpicker will give me a number that's probably pretty close, but the margin of error is not zero. Meanwhile, we can obtain the average selling price on Bricklink definitively.

    'Reliable' wasn't the perfect word, but i still think it's correct. The underlying variations in product condition and shipping price structuring on eBay, overlaid by the need for accurate terapeak and BP filtering introduces more moving parts with less clarity.

    Well as I stated earlier, you are welcome to sift through the auction data and remove the any transactions unfit for the contest.

    One thing you should keep in mind though, Bricklink caters to a smaller and more savvy LEGO consumer, one that knows the proper pricing of sets and pieces. eBay on the other hand will attract all types of buyers, savvy and novices alike. Those novices sometimes pay way above the going rate on sets, maybe because of ignorance or laziness, but many times it's about the ease and protection that eBay offers. The point is, there will be higher valued sold auctions on eBay, but they are real and should be counted.

    An item is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. eBay doubles Bricklink in most LEGO sales, so if a larger majority of people are paying the higher price, it is my opinion, that is the more accurate price. Maybe an average of the two values is the solution.

    Let me know if we can be of help...
    madforLEGO
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Is it me or is this a "secondary market value" discussion? Just sayin...
    MojoestPaperballparkjasor
  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    ^I kind of agree. Can't this personal bet be discussed via messaging?
    Paperballpark
  • pcironepcirone Member Posts: 346
    I will wager a TH that for every person that just can't bear to follow a thread like this and has no idea how to simply ignore it there are at least 10 more people that find it interesting.
    Pitfall69DraugpharmjodEric
  • pcironepcirone Member Posts: 346
    oldtodd33 said:

    It could go over $500 before THIS Christmas.

    I'll take that action :-)
  • oldtodd33oldtodd33 Member Posts: 2,694
    It depends on how desperate people get. We'll see what happens in February.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited November 2014
    Farmer_John said:

    Is it me or is this a "secondary market value" discussion? Just sayin...

    Yep, it became that way after the first few posts so I moved it to "buying and selling topics" at some point of page 2.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Farmer_John said:

    Is it me or is this a "secondary market value" discussion? Just sayin...

    Renny said:

    ^I kind of agree. Can't this personal bet be discussed via messaging?

    pcirone said:

    I will wager a TH that for every person that just can't bear to follow a thread like this and has no idea how to simply ignore it there are at least 10 more people that find it interesting.

    I feel as though this whole thread probably belongs in the "Reseller" thread anyway, so any discussion of Secondary Market Value is warranted. I have been witness to two bets within the forum and I always find these discussions intriguing.

    ThirdBuckEyepcirone
  • blasterfishblasterfish Member Posts: 20
    no i called lego for these they said its not retired yet, but there not planning on making more. some stores might still have them like the local toy store's
  • MojoestMojoest Member Posts: 476
    Well the order for a TH that I placed with UK customer services on Thursday has arrived safe and sound rather than being cancelled! Glad not to have missed out on it. Just a pity I have to wait 'till the weekend to build it.
  • PaperballparkPaperballpark Member Posts: 4,268
    Personally I read this thread to see whether people are still able to get hold of them in-store, to read people's views of it and how they feel it impacts on other sets retiring.

    I do not read this thread for re-seller discussions about what the average price will be at X date in the future. I don't read the large re-seller thread for exactly that reason.
  • jasorjasor Member Posts: 839
    Can we not have just ONE discussion where both factions can come together? Good gravy. I have been enjoying discussions about both modulars, and the over/unders. This is a perfectly organic conversation.

    Stop getting your tinsel in an tangle, folks.
    Bumblepantsminicoopers11pcironepharmjodJP3804dougts
  • minicoopers11minicoopers11 Member Posts: 104
    edited November 2014
    evileddie1313 said:


    Thanks for your time...Ed Mack

    P.S.- The Town Hall is retired. ;-)

    All I can say is, you were right. I'm humbled. ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    jasor said:

    Can we not have just ONE discussion where both factions can come together? Good gravy. I have been enjoying discussions about both modulars, and the over/unders. This is a perfectly organic conversation.

    Stop getting your tinsel in an tangle, folks.

    "I find tinsel distracting." - Frank Costanza

    jasorpreverehoyatablesandyscouse
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    blasterfish said:

    no i called lego for these they said its not retired yet, but there not planning on making more. some stores might still have them like the local toy store's

    They are retired. It's over.

  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    Anyone know the difference between part #6000748 (Dark orange 1x8) that is in TH and listed as in only 1 set and part #4178316 (Dark orange 1x8) that is listed in 5 sets? I'm sure there is a mold difference but not sure what it is.
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    wagnerml2 said:

    Anyone know the difference between part #6000748 (Dark orange 1x8) that is in TH and listed as in only 1 set and part #4178316 (Dark orange 1x8) that is listed in 5 sets? I'm sure there is a mold difference but not sure what it is.

    It's not necessarily a mold difference. It could just be a dye difference - since there was a span of about 8 years when that part wasn't made until TH. @aanchir, the color guru, can probably speak better to the differences.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    The colors are the same, if there is a mold variation between the older and newer brick it could only be hollow vs. solid post (or tube, which ever you prefer).
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    Pitfall69 said:

    blasterfish said:

    no i called lego for these they said its not retired yet, but there not planning on making more. some stores might still have them like the local toy store's

    They are retired. It's over.

    Agreed: Not making anymore but still can be found in stores = EOL as no more are being made.
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    So, does the race now begin to identify rare/unique pieces in these sets and start buying them up from Bricklink?
  • minicoopers11minicoopers11 Member Posts: 104
    blasterfish said:

    no i called lego for these they said its not retired yet, but there not planning on making more. some stores might still have them like the local toy store's

    That's what retired is. Sure, it is always possible to stumble upon a set that has been not made for 10 years in a retail store, but the set is still retired.
    Pitfall69
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    mountebank said:

    So, does the race now begin to identify rare/unique pieces in these sets and start buying them up from Bricklink?

    Thank goodness the doors and windows are in high use amongst other sets.
  • jasorjasor Member Posts: 839
    prevere said:

    mountebank said:

    So, does the race now begin to identify rare/unique pieces in these sets and start buying them up from Bricklink?

    Thank goodness the doors and windows are in high use amongst other sets.
    the 1 X 8's aren't really though
  • JdawgJdawg Member Posts: 83
    In the last couple days I have secured the rarer parts. All the dark orange and printed parts. If I decide to build it, I'll have the parts.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^I might grab a used one to build
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    edited November 2014
    rocao said:

    It seems like a situation we might as well avoid when we have concrete data available from Bricklink. Bricklink data is complete and concrete. Copies listed as new on Bricklink are, by and large, new with little damage and do not include shipping. We can change the price guide setting to only display US sales. We can see for ourselves if there are any outliers and remove them.

    Is it possible to show only US sales? I know you can do USD only sales, but that is different.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    I was buying the rare parts so I could bricklink one at some point. Hence my question about the dark orange 1x8's.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    CCC said:

    Is it possible to show only US sales? I know you can do USD only sales, but that is different.

    Maybe not, I was looking at "My Price Guide settings" and saw that you can filter on stores in a particular country or region, but it appears to only apply to current offerings and not sales.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    Jdawg said:

    In the last couple days I have secured the rarer parts. All the dark orange and printed parts. If I decide to build it, I'll have the parts.

    I wanted the brick mainly because if I want to build a building or two with that color later, I can.
    But I would not be surprised to see it come back in another set at a later date
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    zipsforbananas said:

    With GE it's that I wasn't paying attention, I totally get your point.
    But with TH it's that Lego retired it way before anyone could have expected. My beef is that FB was retired last year, GE was next and I was expecting to retire next, so after that it should be PS, and then TH. I foolishly ran out of time to get GE, but I should still have had plenty of time to get TH. Boo TLG!

    With respect...

    Is 2 years not long enough? TH has been out for 2 years... you've had plenty of time... FB was out far longer than anyone expected, 4 years is not normal for LEGO...
    madforLEGOPitfall69
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Agreed, you (and there are many of you) need to get past the EOL regret syndrome. If you want a set for your personal collection, simply get it. TLG should certainly be bood for some things, but they are in no way deserving of booing for you not getting the TH (or for that matter, almost every other set that has ever been produced).

    To reiterate the don't-wait-for-it-to-be-on-the-perfect-sale preaching, had you gotten it last month, you'd have gotten 2x VIP points plus the toy workshop, or roughly the equivalent of $160, which is 20% off. On an exclusive, that's basically a straight flush, and simply not beatable without incredible luck.

    To repeat what so many have said here multiple times (and me twice in this same note!), if you want a set, get the set.
    Faedian7lego007dougts
  • jasorjasor Member Posts: 839
    ^ and ^^

    To be fair....not everyone gets in at the same time, and many people budget their buying on what was thought as a linear succession line for the modulars. I missed out on TH fair and square (and I'm ok with it)....but it was on my list, albeit a bit farther down.

    Also, I visited three different LBR stores last month while travelling, and they were already sold out of GE and TH.

    I'm not filled with righteous indignation, though.....nor, can I fault TLG for EOL'ing a set that mismatched in price/production/demand until it's actually retired. hahaha
    Farmer_JohnHangedSanchezSteve_J_OM
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited November 2014
    blasterfish said:

    no i called lego for these they said its not retired yet, but there not planning on making more. some stores might still have them like the local toy store's

    The title to this thread says it's retired, so it must be retired. Anyone wanna bet on it?

    (just trying to hit all the topics in this thread) ;-)
    jasor
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