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Comments
For an adult collector, that would be my first recommendation.
For a child, though... it would not be. I say this despite this set being THE only item my daughter desperately wanted for her 7th birthday.
I would think for a child, that the key for HP comes down to Hogwarts. For there to be HP, there has to be Hogwarts. Hagrid's hut to me is a very nice additional set that goes with Hogwarts. With those two sets alone, a kid is guaranteed to have the main characters.
I also found that those were the two sets my girls picked first.
My daughter bought Hagrid's hut with her bday money for her 9th bday. They wanted Hogwart's for Christmas.
What I did not expect is that Hogwart's Express was requested before the Burrow.
I strongly believe it was because of Luna and Ginny.
For my girls, if they had a limited budget their top list would have been those three, just to get Hogwarts and the main female characters.
Hogwarts, Hagrid's Hut and the Express.
Sometimes for kids it is about the minifigs.
For me, though, I think one really needs the Burrow and DIagon Alley to round out those items, but for my girls those first three were an absolute must.
To each their own though.
From a child's perspective the Hogwarts Castle with its myriad features is unbeatable. I know 2 BIG HP fans, my 8 year old and my friend's 9 year old. They play for hours with the castle, having duels, going to classes, practising spells. Majority of the action happened at the school and somehow that castle makes it real for them, as if they were a part of that adventure. :-)
Oh yeah, mine loves Hermione, Luna and Ginny...girl power,the fact that they are smart and courageous. :-)
Do you think it would stick?
OT: Hogwarts sets and Hagrid's Hut , as @tamamahm said, is the very best bet for an upcoming HP CFOL, IMHO. They are the real go to's, and Hogwarts is inorexbly tied to the entire story.
Some of the items that Lego has found related to girls, which are items they incorporated into Friends.
Story-telling is important.
Accessories are important.
Great characters that they can use as avatars is important. (and considering that they are often used as avatars, there is a high chance that girls will want girl characters.)
Modularity is important. The ability to build some and play, and to move things and recreate scenes for story-telling.
Most of the latest HP lines really incorporate these items, but for story-telling, accessories, and great female figures, the three I mention really hit it.
I am going to add in one more possibility that is available now... I specifically picked up the monster fighter castle. Okay. I have two. One is for my Halloween display, but the other I always felt could strongly be used by my girls in their HP play. I have often found them modifying the HP stories. They have used the CMF's to create new additional female students at Hogwarts (or even the sister of Harry Potter). We already know there are other schools about based on the 4th book. I think the MF castle could really add.
The problem is, though, I know my kids would really like those HP sets first.
Have you tried showing your kids the lines and seeing what they gravitate towards?? I have often used that technique as well. That is how I found out they majorly put Hogwart's Express ahead of the Burrow (which would have been my choice) for Ginny and Luna.
If anyone is interested in setting up a trade, I have a few items that may interest you with tremendous upside, PM me.