Will The Lone Ranger be the next Prince of Persia?

natro220

Lego's partnering with Disney doesn't always seem to pan out. Case in point - Prince of Persia. While the sets were ok and featured some interesting new animals and minifigs, the movie itself was a critical and box-office failure. I believe this is the reason many of the PoP sets languished on store shelves, unable to sell even at 50% off (I saw several of the sets on clearance at my local Targets for months after they were discontinued, and they kept popping up on Amazon for cheap too).

While this presented an opportunity for AFOL's to pick up sets for cheap, it was no doubtedly a disaster for Lego.

This could happen again with The Lone Ranger. The movie which comes out this week is getting horrendous reviews, and they expect it to underperform at the box office coming out the same week as Despicable Me 2. We could see some awesome sets at great discounts in a few months if they sell as poorly as PoP did.

TheLoneTensor

Even if TLR also tanks (it's currently trending badly with critics - 25% on Rotten Tomatoes), it still has more going for it than PoP did:

* Western theme
* Iconic, American hero
* Great minifigures
* Great sets
* A Train

These aren't guarantees for success, but they will help. I really liked some of the PoP sets and they had great minifigs and elements, but it's apples and oranges for the theme comparison and recognition thereof. A little boy is going to latch onto a train and a stagecoach much more quickly than he would an ostrich race.

LegoFanTexas

Yes, the sets are good, the theme is good, it actually works without the movie.

natro220

tensor said:

TLR has more going for it than PoP did:

Western theme
Iconic, American hero
Great minifigures
Great sets
A Train

These aren't guarantees for success, but it helps.

I would argue that the first two on your list aren't pluses, at least for Lego's target market. Western themes haven't been popular with kids for decades...Lego's last attempt at Western sets also didn't seem to really catch on, as they fazed the theme out after a couple years.

And kids now a days didn't idolize The Lone Ranger, not like many AFOL's did. Many have no idea who he is. They'd be more likely to relate to the character in Prince of Persia, as he's based on a video game.

LegoFanTexas

natro220 said:

We could see some awesome sets at great discounts in a few months if they sell as poorly as PoP did.

This already can't happen, the sets are at the top of best seller lists, they are already moving in volume.

Some of them will do better than others, but the stagecoach and train are very, very nice sets. Already bought both. :)

natro220

LegoFanTexas said:

natro220 said:

We could see some awesome sets at great discounts in a few months if they sell as poorly as PoP did.

This already can't happen, the sets are at the top of best seller lists, they are already moving in volume.

Some of them will do better than others, but the stagecoach and train are very, very nice sets. Already bought both. :)

But couldn't you see that changing once the movie comes out and it possibly falls flat? I believe it is selling well for the time being because there was some pent up demand for Western sets from Lego's fan base. Once that dries up and the movie comes and goes, I still think there might be discounts.

TheLoneTensor

natro220 said:

tensor said:

TLR has more going for it than PoP did:

Western theme
Iconic, American hero
Great minifigures
Great sets
A Train

These aren't guarantees for success, but it helps.

I would argue that the first two on your list aren't pluses, at least for Lego's target market. Western themes haven't been popular with kids for decades...Lego's last attempt at Western sets also didn't seem to really catch on, as they fazed the theme out after a couple years.

And kids now a days didn't idolize The Lone Ranger, not like many AFOL's did. Many have no idea who he is. They'd be more likely to relate to the character in Prince of Persia, as he's based on a video game.

In all fairness, the older Lego western sets were pretty darn "kiddie" in my opinion.

My kids didn't know much about the Lone Ranger before this movie, except for my occasional stop on the Encore Western channel, but they are really digging him now and looking forward to the movie. He's no Batman, but he's a good guy in a mask. Hey, when something works, it works.

I would argue that very few kids that were in Lego's target demo actually played the PoP games. The games were rated teen at best and mature at worst. The movie was a weird adventure that tried to hit multiple demos (kid, teen, adult) and as a result, struck home with none of them. Without at least the movie to hold up the sets, they failed.

I know that if I wanted to get any TLR sets, particularly the train or stagecoach, I wouldn't wait for massive sales or the aftermarket.

natro220

Good points, Tensor. I've been on the fence about buying them now or waiting...I may be tempted to buy now. But I'll be kicking myself in the pants if I see these deeply discounted.

HarryPotterLover

Yeah, people have been itching for a Western theme for years and this is currently the next best thing. pieces and figures aren't all that bad either.

jasor

I know there are Train-folk aplenty, but the key set IMO is the stagecoach. It's beautiful, seems like way more bricks than it is, the right pricepoint even at RRP, and the minifigs hit almost all marks.

I wouldnt wait on a deep deep discount for that one. Build it now :P

tamamahm

tensor said:

natro220 said:

tensor said:

TLR has more going for it than PoP did:

Western theme
Iconic, American hero
Great minifigures
Great sets
A Train

These aren't guarantees for success, but it helps.

I would argue that the first two on your list aren't pluses, at least for Lego's target market. Western themes haven't been popular with kids for decades...Lego's last attempt at Western sets also didn't seem to really catch on, as they fazed the theme out after a couple years.

And kids now a days didn't idolize The Lone Ranger, not like many AFOL's did. Many have no idea who he is. They'd be more likely to relate to the character in Prince of Persia, as he's based on a video game.

In all fairness, the older Lego western sets were pretty darn "kiddie" in my opinion.

My kids didn't know much about the Lone Ranger before this movie, except for my occasional stop on the Encore Western channel, but they are really digging him now and looking forward to the movie. He's no Batman, but he's a good guy in a mask. Hey, when something works, it works.

That is exactly natro220's point, though.... You stated that TLR has a Western theme going for it and an Iconic American Hero. The reality, though, is exactly as you mention... that kids don't know much about the Lone Ranger. That is exactly natro220's point... That isn't something going for it. Kids are clueless who TLR is, unless parent fill them in, or unless they see the movie. Basically, the lack of known characters is a knock against it, if parents have to explain who these characters are.
Being a Western... That can be a knock as well, if kids simply do not engage in Western play. (There is some potential upswing, if kids see such a line as a bit 'unique', though.)

As for minifigs...My 6 year old even thought TLR ranger was a bad guy! He recently built the mine. This was the first Lego set ever, he bypassed building the minifigs immediately, because 'they are not interesting'. He built all of the first bag, before I finally noticed he hadn't even attempted to build the minifigs. I would argue that 'great minifigs', while they look okay to me, are definitely not selling points here for kids that really are clueless about who the characters are. Even after I explained, my son still had little interest in them.

Now, to flip it, I STRONGLY agree with the last two you mention.
My son, who has zero interest in Western, who is clueless on the characters, had the mine as his top, top Lego want for the past few months. The set just looks fun. It has a number of special features... a slide, an explosive rock, a cart with a button to push it, lots of silver, a trap door, another explosive wall, a tunnel for the mine cart... All of these were big, big selling features. The sheer adventure of this set really sold it, and my son really sees TLR as similar to any unlicensed set. He is looking for the items he likes, which for him are lots of special features and playability. The Train is the other one he has looked at, but he is actually considering putting a second mine on his list, because he likes it so much.
I think a nice train, though, can be a reasonable seller for many kids.

I really think the difference between TLR and PoP is the quality and playability in the sets. View both as 'unlicensed' sets, and to me TLR is an overall better line. A mine or Train can easily be used as Western, or used in a very different scenario. I think this line will be okay, even if TLR ends up being a bust of a movie.

BoiseState

Kids just aren't into western themes anymore.. I think the train does well, maybe the stagecoach. But everything else bombs.

skeet318

This movie is gonna be the bee's knee, silly OP!

Dougout

That's too bad TLR is bombing. However, the theme will still do well.

piratemania7

I think the theme will be fine. Just got the stagecoach today. For the price you get a good selection of new horses and new figs, plus the build itself is not bad. I think the train will be a huge hit. As for the original western theme I remember as a kid getting almost all the sets and loving it, so I think at least in the U.S this will sit well with kids, worldwide it might be more of the "what do I get" and the train that are big hits.

TheLoneTensor

tamamahm said:

That is exactly natro220's point, though.... You stated that TLR has a Western theme going for it and an Iconic American Hero. The reality, though, is exactly as you mention... that kids don't know much about the Lone Ranger. That is exactly natro220's point... That isn't something going for it. Kids are clueless who TLR is, unless parent fill them in, or unless they see the movie. Basically, the lack of known characters is a knock against it, if parents have to explain who these characters are.

True, the kids don't know him, but there's a very high probability they've been exposed to him somewhere, or Tonto, or heard the word "kemosabe." Just like Batman, no kid has any idea who he is until he's told about him. Once the child figures that out, the character then takes over and either wins the kid over or doesn't.

At least with TLR, mom & dad can likely tell them about who he is, like I did with mine. With PoP?...um, no, it's not even a contest for familiarity.

tamamahm said:

My 6 year old even thought TLR ranger was a bad guy!

That's kinda the point though, and again, just like Batman, one of the appeals of the character is the mystery and ambiguity of his true nature and identity.

Anyway, I'm a sucker for westerns of all kinds. Silverado, Tombstone, How the West was Won, Blondie's trilogy, Red Dead Redemption, and dozens more in different media. Heck, I even loved Jonah Hex...forgive me.

doriansdad

My son and I have been collecting some of the older classic western theme sets. We will be steering clear of the Lone Ranger line. Even though there are a few nice sets in the theme the fact they are tied to Disney and an awful movie just ruins the fun for us. A shame TLG chose this over a classic theme but this seems to be par for the course for this company going forward. Personally I don't see LR being very collectible once retired but while on the shelves they should be a good alternative to folks who don't want to shell out the $$ for the real deal.

mathew

Well the movie hasn't bombed yet, but I think based on early reviews that it will. It just sounds terrible. I didn't like the PotC films so I may be a bit biased. As far as the TLR sets go, the only one I kind of like is the Mine. It looks fun, and has a nice assortment of bricks for MOCs. I think all of these sets eventually will be 30-50% off by the Fall.

natro220

@tensor - Batman has been ubiquitous in movies, tv shows, and comic books pretty much since his inception. TLR has been a pretty stale intellectual property since the 1950's...kind of hard to compare the two.

madforLEGO

natro220 said:

Good points, Tensor. I've been on the fence about buying them now or waiting...I may be tempted to buy now. But I'll be kicking myself in the pants if I see these deeply discounted.

Id say at the least wait until Amazon has them for around 20% off, they probably will (and have in the past) get to these prices again before they are gone for good IMO

natro220

madforLEGO said:

natro220 said:

Good points, Tensor. I've been on the fence about buying them now or waiting...I may be tempted to buy now. But I'll be kicking myself in the pants if I see these deeply discounted.

Id say at the least wait until Amazon has them for around 20% off, they probably will (and have in the past) get to these prices again before they are gone for good IMO

All of the sets are already discounted there more than 10%. No doubt they will reach 20% after the movie is out for a while.

CupIsHalfEmpty

I am 26 years old and the closest I got to anything "western" while growing up in the Canadian Prairies was Woody from Toy Story. I had no idea who Tonto, or the Lone Ranger was until the Lego sets were announced. So I would be cautious banking on kids nostalgia driving the sales. The aftermarket will totally be dependent on the box office and nostalgic older AFOLs who remember the original TLR.

I feel Gen Y's are more comic book/super hero centric as being a nerd has started to become 'cool'.

So what about the theme going the Indiana Jones route? seems like it would hit the same target audience.

Bumblepants

Reviews aren't everything though. For example, the Transformer films got panned by critics but made huge money and sold a ton of toys. Not saying that The Lone Ranger will do the same but I think it is a bit premature for passing judgement on it yet.

doriansdad

CupIsHalfEmpty said:

So what about the theme going the Indiana Jones route? seems like it would hit the same target audience.

I am 37 and grew up with Indy. Never saw the Lone Ranger. Not sure who the target audience is for this line? My dad in his 60's and saw the show but could care less about collecting toys lol.....that trend started with my age group reminiscing about old Star Wars figs and nintendo games. TLR seems to be completely irrelevant.

CupIsHalfEmpty

Is it bad that I secretly wish that all themes fail so I can buy cheap bricks?

Thanos75

My local Wal-mart has already moved the TLR sets to clearance. Not sure why.

natro220

CupIsHalfEmpty said:

Is it bad that I secretly wish that all themes fail so I can buy cheap bricks?

Ha, I wish that too deep down....

Picopirate

I think these sets will do okay even if the movie bombs for all the reasons previously listed plus the sets seem to provide a lot of value for the money (a train and track for $100, a stagecoach with 3 horses and 5 minifigs for $30, etc.). The sets all look good too. The will always be at least some market for western/cowboy theme, even if it is not very popular with most kids. Since it does not overlap with other Lego themes, it will not compete with other sets for sales. It also fits in well with other themes. That is, in many parts of the US, you might see western style buildings, guys in cowboy hats, and horses, so mixing them in with city sets would not look too out of place. Conversely, I never saw a pharaoh walking down main street. Lastly, civil war buffs will likely get the cavalry builder sets.

TheLoneTensor

natro220 said:

@tensor - Batman has been ubiquitous in movies, tv shows, and comic books pretty much since his inception. TLR has been a pretty stale intellectual property since the 1950's...kind of hard to compare the two.

It's not hard to compare the two if you use the context I did. The point was, when you are born, you don't know who neither Batman nor the Lone Ranger is. At some point in your life you come across each for the first time, and then you learn about who they are as a character and go from there. I will fully admit you will likely encounter Batman a heck of a lot earlier and more frequently than you will TLR. I file that under "duh."

I really doubt, however, that many fathers will sit their boys on their lap and relate to them fondly, stories about Dastan and his many adventures, which is one reason TLR > PoP.

natro220

tensor said:

natro220 said:

@tensor - Batman has been ubiquitous in movies, tv shows, and comic books pretty much since his inception. TLR has been a pretty stale intellectual property since the 1950's...kind of hard to compare the two.

It's not hard to compare the two if you use the context I did. The point was, when you are born, you don't know who neither Batman nor the Lone Ranger is. At some point in your life you come across each for the first time, and then you learn about who they are as a character and go from there. I will fully admit you will likely encounter Batman a heck of a lot earlier and more frequently than you will TLR. I file that under "duh."

I really doubt, however, that many fathers will sit their boys on their lap and relate to them fondly, stories about Dastan and his many adventures, which is one reason TLR > PoP.

Your last line was hilarious...you are spot on there. I think TLR will end up doing better than PoP, but not be a huge hit.

chuxtoybox

I had pretty much given up on the idea of Lego releasing new Western sets since kids these days aren't interested in playing cowboy. So when I first heard that Lego was making sets based on a new LR movie I was ecstatic because even if the movie sucked, we were going to get new Western sets! I'm curious whether Lego is going to make any new LR sets after these. Now that the POTC movies are over, do you think Lego will ever release any new Pirate sets again or do kids not pretend to be pirates anymore? Do they still play "cops and robbers"?

doriansdad

chuxtoybox said:

Now that the POTC movies are over, do you think Lego will ever release any new Pirate sets again or do kids not pretend to be pirates anymore?

Not over by a long shot. #5 and #6 are already in the works. I would expect another few round of Lego sets as well.

jasor

Love POTC franchise, excited about TLR, and unashamed. I still stand by what I said with the Train and Stagecoach....Stagecoach all the way.

Brinstar85

I would echo the thoughts of many who have already posted. The quality of the Lone Ranger sets will most likely prevent the theme from sharing the same fate as Prince of Persia. Putting aside the relative appeal (or lack of) of the Prince of Persia franchise, the sets themselves really weren't very good (with the possible exception of 7573 Battle of Alamut). This was partly because franchise didn't really translate into Lego form very easily.

The Lone Ranger film may well turn out to be a flop but I can see the sets appealing to a demographic beyond those who see the film. To what extent western Lego will appeal to children these days is open to debate but I do think quality of the sets will help them sell.

T_Lars

On the topic of stale intellectual properties; When I was a young lad no one knew who the hell Dick Tracy was. Then one day that Warren Beatty movie came out and almost immediately my friends and I wanted to be 1930/40s gangsters with funny names. It was a pretty quick fad, and not a great movie, but I'm sure they sold quiet a bit of crappy merchandise relating to the movie (those wakie talkie wrist watches cost loads of money and never did work right.)

skeet318

T_Lars said:

On the topic of stale intellectual properties; When I was a young lad no one knew who the hell Dick Tracy was. Then one day that Warren Beatty movie came out and almost immediately my friends and I wanted to be 1930/40s gangsters with funny names. It was a pretty quick fad, and not a great movie, but I'm sure they sold quiet a bit of crappy merchandise relating to the movie (those wakie talkie wrist watches cost loads of money and never did work right.)

Heh...you ever tell anybody to "Go suck an egg!" like the Kid?

caperberry

natro220 said:

...We could see some awesome sets at great discounts in a few months if they sell as poorly as PoP did.

Well let's hope it fails miserably! Silver lining and all that...

graphite

doriansdad said:

Not over by a long shot. #5 and #6 are already in the works. I would expect another few round of Lego sets as well.

Here's hoping they release the flying dutchman they designed but didn't release.

icey117

I really like the Prince of Persia sets! They have atmosphere :-)

TheLoneTensor

graphite said:

doriansdad said:

Not over by a long shot. #5 and #6 are already in the works. I would expect another few round of Lego sets as well.

Here's hoping they release the flying dutchman they designed but didn't release.

Don't give up yet, there is another PotC movie on the way.

graphite

^ that is why I quoted the statement that #5 and #6 movies are on their way =)

TheLoneTensor

graphite said:

^ that is why I quoted the statement that #5 and #6 movies are on their way =)

Laf, I ninja'd myself, kinda. Knew about 5, didn't know about 6, ugh.

charlatan13

I try to avoid reading reviews before seeing a movie, but if the score is around 25% on Rotten Tomatoes it means it is probably a mess. I ended up buying the Stagecoach due to all the positive reviews and it was a great build. I'll probably buy the train too since it looks really cool.

I think people sometimes forget that today's kids will avoid buying a Lego set associated with a movie if it bombs regardless of its potential. I already had a conversation with my son about how Johnny Depp (the pirate to him) is Tonto but he isn't the main character - the Lone Ranger is. I had to laugh when I read the comments about the target audience since my dad says he wants to see the movie since he has fond memories of listening to it on the radio. I love Western movies, but TLR is already looking like a pass for me in the theater at least.

Pitfall69

Has anyone seen The Lone Ranger yet?

Pitfall69

Ok skeptics. My good friend saw it with her kids the other day and she said quote:" It was really good I liked it. Thought it was funny and Johnny depp was awesome at his role"

As far as her kids, they gave out masks and her littlest one wouldn't take it off.

Pitfall69

jasor said:

Love POTC franchise, excited about TLR, and unashamed. I still stand by what I said with the Train and Stagecoach....Stagecoach all the way.

Nothing to be ashamed about. I like the franchise too.

I thought the 80's Lone Ranger was ok back in the day. They even made Action Figures for the movie. I used to watch TLR with my dad when I was little. Loved all the old westerns too

charlatan13

I asked my son if he wanted to see Despicable Me 2 3D or TLR and he chose the minions. I don't put a lot of stock in RT reviews (usually wide gulf between critics and audience reviews) but 25% is pretty low for me to take a risk on until I talk to more people that I know who see the movie (glad to hear of a positive review from someone who saw it). I just feel like my expectations and memories of TLR and the newest version will result in a bad aftertaste that I'll have to wash out with a re-watching of Winchester '73 or something.

HarryPotterLover

I don't think people should judge the sets on a movie that came out today (although I got to see an early screening at 7pm last night :D) and follow the critics because (just in my opinion) it was interesting and reminds me of other Westerns (its easy to ignore the Disney part)

And they almost shouldn't judge the movie along with the sets, because just because some people don't find the movie good doesn't mean the sets will have to be so bad.

HarryPotterLover

Im curious, how many people drastically changed their opinions on the sets before and after reviews, did people think that the movie and sets were on an equal level of awful because the two were partners?

tamamahm

Pitfall69 said:

Ok skeptics. My good friend saw it with her kids the other day and she said quote:" It was really good I liked it. Thought it was funny and Johnny depp was awesome at his role"

As far as her kids, they gave out masks and her littlest one wouldn't take it off.

My parents really enjoyed it. Of course, they are western and Johnny Depp fans, though.

tamamahm

charlatan13 said:

I think people sometimes forget that today's kids will avoid buying a Lego set associated with a movie if it bombs regardless of its potential.

Really? Do we have solid data on that?