UCS Falcon 10179 still a good investment?

jeffmace

Pacific493 said:

One thing to keep in mind in terms of using Brickpicker to establish a value of your sets for insurance purposes is that it bases all of its price information on sales made on Ebay. While this will be fairly reflective of fair market value for newer sets or sets that have a higher volume of sales, it is completely unreliable for establishing the value of sets that change hands infrequently. If you have sets that are rarer or older, I wouldn't put a high degree of faith in the prices reflected on Brickpicker.

One thing you need to keep in mind, we are showing values from eBay of sets that sold. We do not show what people are listing sets for. We show what people are actually paying for a set on eBay. Yes older sets are very hard to do. Even a popular set like #497 Galaxy Explorer might get 2-3 sold listings a month which compared to many others, that is a lot. If we can improve these older set listings we would, but the sold data just isn't there.

jeffmace

legomatt said:

Not wishing to derail the thread, but I've never heard of Brickpicker.

Is it not a site discussing the many strategies available for extracting Lego pieces from the noses of children?
:oD

If you feel this is a growing epidemic, perhaps we can create a special blog category just for this issue, maybe even an instructional video :)

Redbullgivesuwind

jeffmace said:

Pacific493 said:

One thing to keep in mind in terms of using Brickpicker to establish a value of your sets for insurance purposes is that it bases all of its price information on sales made on Ebay. While this will be fairly reflective of fair market value for newer sets or sets that have a higher volume of sales, it is completely unreliable for establishing the value of sets that change hands infrequently. If you have sets that are rarer or older, I wouldn't put a high degree of faith in the prices reflected on Brickpicker.

One thing you need to keep in mind, we are showing values from eBay of sets that sold. We do not show what people are listing sets for. We show what people are actually paying for a set on eBay. Yes older sets are very hard to do. Even a popular set like #497 Galaxy Explorer might get 2-3 sold listings a month which compared to many others, that is a lot. If we can improve these older set listings we would, but the sold data just isn't there.

No that is true. Every site has a problem. But pair the data up with that at Bricklink and you can get a rough idea of what those rarer sets are worth. It just means a little bit of work. But worth it if my house catches fire :-). Ps before you ask. I would save my lego first.

evileddie1313

Pacific493 said:

evileddie1313 said:

Pacific493 said:

Putting money into 10179 right now would be incredibly stupid IMHO. Maybe it will pay off, maybe not, but with folks like Brickpicker pushing the continuing viability of the set as an investment vehicle and the limited number of people who can actually afford to drop that kind of cash on a set that would be used as a toy, the MF is a set that IMHO is primed for a pricing bubble and is way too risky to gamble on these days.

As for the topic of investing in a $2500 10179, I can make a case either way, but the continued steady growth has to be considered. There is no way to tell where the set will plateau. For people to say it has peaked is just speculation. We discuss topics like this on the site and don't tell people to invest $2500 in a set, but one can make a case for it. Many of the same people saying this set is maxing out at $2500 are the same people who said it maxed out at $1000...or $1500...or $2000. Personally, at $2500, I would diversify as well, but I did bid on numerous 10179 auctions around the $1500-$1750 price point.

I agree that there is no way to tell where the set will plateau and it might continue to rise and rise and rise, but saying that its investment potential should be considered simply because it is rising in value is reckless advice IMHO. Unless there is evidence that the continuing rise in value reflects organic growth in the demand for the set (i.e., non-investor driven), this is a set that screams pricing bubble to me because I find it hard to believe (and have seen no evidence to suggest) that there are non-investors out there who passed at $1,000, $1,500, $2,000, and $2,500, but decided to buy in at $3,000, or that there are a sufficient number of folks who are coming of out their dark ages and are willing to drop $3k+ on a single set. If the continuing rise in the set's price is a reflection of investor-driven demand, then buying in at any price right now would be way too risky to make any good sense.

What might be reckless to you, might be a worthwhile investment to someone else. Everyone has their own tolerance for risk. I am not recommending that anyone spend $2500 on the 10179, I would diversify. But a case can be made that the dynamics of the LEGO secondary market for this set is the same it was a year ago and today there are fewer MISB 10179s than a year ago. Some have been built, some lost, some destroyed, some damaged...whatever, so the set is even more rare than a year ago. This same conversation occurred 12 months ago and some people took a chance on the set and made out very well. No risk, no reward.

A couple things can happen with this set. One, it plateaus like every other LEGO set and slowly drops off in value over time. Two, LEGO releases a new version of the set and the price tanks or three, the new movies stimulate interest in the set and ship and the price explodes or at the very least continues its upward trajectory. Take your pick. These are the types of discussions we have on a daily basis on the Brickpicker site. It's a relaxed atmosphere and members hear all sorts of options on investing in LEGO sets. As for your other comment, it is true we base our data on eBay sales, but they far outsell any other marketplace. While it is also true some rare sets are hard to get data for, the majority of LEGO collectors and investors own newer sets, so the most popular set data is available. We are also adding Terepeak data from the UK, Germany and Australia and nobody offers that option. Thanks for the chance to reply.

doriansdad

Why the hate for 10179? I imagine it will make an appearance in the new star wars films. Unless TLG does a rehash I see no reason for it not to continue to rise in value. The easiest way to make money in any market is to buy high and sell higher. Attempting to call tops and leaving money on the table is not a sound strategy IMO.

Pacific493

jeffmace said:

Pacific493 said:

One thing to keep in mind in terms of using Brickpicker to establish a value of your sets for insurance purposes is that it bases all of its price information on sales made on Ebay. While this will be fairly reflective of fair market value for newer sets or sets that have a higher volume of sales, it is completely unreliable for establishing the value of sets that change hands infrequently. If you have sets that are rarer or older, I wouldn't put a high degree of faith in the prices reflected on Brickpicker.

One thing you need to keep in mind, we are showing values from eBay of sets that sold. We do not show what people are listing sets for. We show what people are actually paying for a set on eBay. Yes older sets are very hard to do. Even a popular set like #497 Galaxy Explorer might get 2-3 sold listings a month which compared to many others, that is a lot. If we can improve these older set listings we would, but the sold data just isn't there.

I'm fully aware of that and that was the exact point that I was making...your price guide is solely a reflection of what sets sold for over the time period of the data that you've purchased. For newer sets that are sold frequently on Ebay, you're likely working with a large enough data set to produce pricing data that is a fairly accurate reflection of the value of a set at any given time. For older sets that are sold infrequently, you don't have as large of a data set and, therefore, can't generate pricing data that is as reliably accurate as the newer sets. My basic point was that the OP shouldn't rely on Brickpicker as the definitive price guide for Lego sets. As I've pointed out before, you're only working with a data set of sales generated in one marketplace. Although prices are generally stable across the various marketplaces where Lego sets are normally sold (Ebay, BL, and Amazon), there are pricing differences that do emerge (at least in my experience).

Pitfall69

The problem with using info from just EBay is this: A UCS MF could have completed sale of $7000 and another for $900. Auctions are not really a great way of determining value imo. Also, are you comparing apples to apples. First editions go for slightly more yet have the same set number. It may be new sealed, but the box may be in bad shape and that's why it sold for a lower price. It could be encased in plastic and graded and selling for a very high price. Does EBay know the difference?

jeffmace

Pitfall69 said:

The problem with using info from just EBay is this: A UCS MF could have completed sale of $7000 and another for $900. Auctions are not really a great way of determining value imo. Also, are you comparing apples to apples. First editions go for slightly more yet have the same set number. It may be new sealed, but the box may be in bad shape and that's why it sold for a lower price. It could be encased in plastic and graded and selling for a very high price. Does EBay know the difference?

I have programmed and run processes to remove criteria. We do remove those sets that are AFA Graded and going for $12,000. We know that is not the norm. We also look for auctions that could be lots, just parts, etc. We have never stated that it is perfect and that every listing is ideal. On every given month, the site is parsing 200k listings, much more during the holiday season. We know there are bad listings and we are always fine tuning to look for ways to keep them out of the equation. Also, we have a lot of avid collectors on our site that always let us know of when we seemed to have missed something. We then look at the data and remove those listings. It is always a work in progress.

To answer Pacific493. I agree, right now its showing sold data from just ebay, that is really all that is available for us to post. We can not obtain sold data from Amazon, but we do display the price trends from camelcamelcamel that are like the Amazon trends you see here on Brickset. I have written Eric at Bricklink to post their data too, but they are too busy working on their issues and redesign, but stated they would look again at the possibilities in the future. But that can be a long way off. We just announced on our site recently that we will launching our own marketplace, called Brick Classifieds. As our site has grown, it has been a non stop request to buy/sell/trade with other Brickpicker members. I will then be able to add these figures into our price guide as well.

Between Brick Classifieds and including data from other local markets (UK, Germany and Australia), our data should improve and be more valuable for more people moving forward. The site is only 1.5 years old, please allow it to mature. Brickset is a masterpiece and Huw as been fine tuning it for 15 years. That's why it is so great.

Pacific493

I'm curious about the exclusions that you're using for your data sets. Do you differentiate between used sets and new sets in the data you feed into your pricing models? Also, do you do anything to exclude the randomly high and randomly low auctions (i.e., the one or two auctions there always seems to be where someone has bought a set for $600 when every other auction closed at or below $300)?

jeffmace

There is a lot to it, but the basics are, we look at the numbers from the month before if they exist. If the set is really going for $300, but then someone who is not very educated buys one for $800, it is taken out. Same on the low side as well. It is rare that a set is going to go up in value at a remarkable rate in one month, so its not that hard to eliminate the overly high or low sets. We will have to watch the Jabba's Palace next month when we get the data to see how many people bought one at crazy prices. eBay overall is pretty good at the New/ Used since it is one of the available fields. But I programmed a bunch of flags that show for sets that are listed as "new" but the pricing is off and you find out it has everything but minifigs. It's not really new at that point anymore, and sadly many don't realize that.

slimeburger

10179 will increase in value, because as time goes on, fewer of them will be unopened. As an investment, I reckon the 2k is better spent on items that increase in value at a faster rate.
I've already reinvested by Falcon profit!

TheLoneTensor

slimeburger said:

10179 will increase in value, because as time goes on, fewer of them will be unopened.

While that does generally cause something to increase in value, you are omitting another important factor, the concept that there is a ceiling of what people (collectors and/or investors) are willing to pay. There is a point of diminishing return that is reached when the cost & risk of holding/storing/protecting/guarding such an item outweighs any perceived return.

Legofanscott

slimeburger said:

10179 will increase in value, because as time goes on, fewer of them will be unopened. As an investment, I reckon the 2k is better spent on items that increase in value at a faster rate.
I've already reinvested by Falcon profit!

But of the ones that a currently being sold at present, how many are actually being opened?

I imagine 99.9% of the people who are still buying the sealed ones are investors who never intend on opening it.

The other exceptions such as collectors and AFOLS are also probably doing the same, they might intend to open it once it arrives but not many people can stomach the instant drop in value once that seal is broken so they just go and buy a used one off ebay.

IMO at the moment i really only think there are a small handful that are actually still being opened.

neiname

I don't think #10179 at $2,500 is a good investment. It is true that there will never be any more #10179 made and that is an argument for buying it. The real risk is that LEGO redoes the MF UCS set as they did for the X-Wing. Check the prices and vast number of auctions for #7191. One could also argue that LEGO just released a kickass MF for ~$140 and it's not likely they will release another so soon but that didn't stop them redoing the recently released X-Wing (#9493) into the current UCS.

Too much risk in my opinion.

LegoFanTexas

:) In fairness, the current system scale MF has nothing to do with the UCS version, they aren't close in size and don't accomplish the same thing.

The system scale version is playable, has an interior, and is meant for kids to have fun with. It isn't accurate to scale, but it is close enough.

However, I do agree that UCS Falcon will be done again. Since the die has been cast with UCS X-Wing being redone, it is only a matter of time.

Zathras

I agree with Darth on this, it's not if - it's when.

Another thing to think about is how the current crop of UCS is performing on store shelves. While fans and collectors clamor for Lego to "fill out" the spectrum of ships not produced yet - Awing/Slave 1/AT-AT, the Bwing had to discounted 50% to unload its production run.

This would make me prefer to re-issue a UCS that is guaranteed to sell a limited 10,000 to 15,000 run at $549.99 vs clogging up my distribution channels with 35,000 sets that have to be liquidated and shipped free at $99.

Legofanscott

LegoFanTexas said:

:) In fairness, the current system scale MF has nothing to do with the UCS version, they aren't close in size and don't accomplish the same thing.

The system scale version is playable, has an interior, and is meant for kids to have fun with. It isn't accurate to scale, but it is close enough.

However, I do agree that UCS Falcon will be done again. Since the die has been cast with UCS X-Wing being redone, it is only a matter of time.

IMO it kind of makes the collectability of Lego much less exciting today when i hear about re-issues, but then again i don't think that was ever part of Lego's plan.

I'd love to travel into the future, say 10-15 years from now to see whats been released and what the post EOL market will be like then.

LegoFanTexas

Legofanscott said:

I'd love to travel into the future, say 10-15 years from now to see whats been released and what the post EOL market will be like then.

Heck, I'll take next month's newspaper w/stock market prices, forget LEGO. :)

A few uncovered calls/puts, and I'll retire. :)

LegoFanTexas

Zathras said:

I agree with Darth on this, it's not if - it's when.

Another thing to think about is how the current crop of UCS is performing on store shelves. While fans and collectors clamor for Lego to "fill out" the spectrum of ships not produced yet - Awing/Slave 1/AT-AT, the Bwing had to discounted 50% to unload its production run.

This would make me prefer to re-issue a UCS that is guaranteed to sell a limited 10,000 to 15,000 run at $549.99 vs clogging up my distribution channels with 35,000 sets that have to be liquidated and shipped free at $99.

I've said it before, I'll say it again. A limited edition re-issue of UCS Falcon, 10,000 numbered units, 1 per VIP account, priced at $1,000, would sell out in very short order.

Regarding expanding the line, I don't think the B-Wing does a very good job of showing what an expanded line could do. The AT-AT Walker was a major vehicle in ESB that many people remember, it did something, shot at things, was destroyed and then destroyed the shield. It should do MUCH better than the B-Wing, which did nothing in the movies except fly across the screen for a few seconds and never fired its blasters once.

Slave 1 also should do well, it is in multiple movies and actually does stuff in the new movies.

The A-Wing? Less so, we need a UCS TIE Fighter before we need an A-Wing.

Legofanscott

LegoFanTexas said:

Zathras said:

I agree with Darth on this, it's not if - it's when.

Another thing to think about is how the current crop of UCS is performing on store shelves. While fans and collectors clamor for Lego to "fill out" the spectrum of ships not produced yet - Awing/Slave 1/AT-AT, the Bwing had to discounted 50% to unload its production run.

This would make me prefer to re-issue a UCS that is guaranteed to sell a limited 10,000 to 15,000 run at $549.99 vs clogging up my distribution channels with 35,000 sets that have to be liquidated and shipped free at $99.

I've said it before, I'll say it again. A limited edition re-issue of UCS Falcon, 10,000 numbered units, 1 per VIP account, priced at $1,000, would sell out in very short order.

Regarding expanding the line, I don't think the B-Wing does a very good job of showing what an expanded line could do. The AT-AT Walker was a major vehicle in ESB that many people remember, it did something, shot at things, was destroyed and then destroyed the shield. It should do MUCH better than the B-Wing, which did nothing in the movies except fly across the screen for a few seconds and never fired its blasters once.

Slave 1 also should do well, it is in multiple movies and actually does stuff in the new movies.

The A-Wing? Less so, we need a UCS TIE Fighter before we need an A-Wing.

when i persoanlly think of Star wars i always think of the AT-AT before the Falcon, don't really know why though :/

neiname

For me I could take down multiple Star Destroyers in the original X-Wing pc game with the B-Wing. That thing was a beast!!! Probably why it has such fond memories for me.

Pitfall69

AT-AT or even an A-Wing or Tie Fighter before a UCS MF.

dougts

seems like an AT-AT and a Slave 1 are obvious no-brainer choices for UCS - although one could argue the AT-AT wouldn't be much different than the #10178, although it wasn't technically a UCS set. Similar to the #10144 being "close" to UCS, though obviously dated now.

I can only assume the busts didn't sell well, but without trying a Darth Vader bust, that seems like a heck of a conclusion to reach. Who wouldn't stick one of those on their desk or shelf?

if the Ewok village rumor turns out to be true, I wouldn't be sad to see TLG continue the "really large playset" idea. First the DS, then the village, then the next logical choice would be cloud city

Pitfall69

^How about just a Lego bust ;) Yeah, a Slave 1 is a must have. Although, we are talking about OT. Is there any ships from Episodes 1-3 that would make stunning UCS sets?

AvengerDr

The Royal Naboo ship? Amidala's one. I recall seeing a custom fully chromed MOC.

Bandit

Pitfall69 said:

^How about just a Lego bust ;)

They just did a Lego bust, and clearanced a million of them out this weekend... :D

Pitfall69

^That's funny!!!

Pitfall69

I need to find the B-Wing thread and read through it and laugh at all the pro B-Wing comments...lol.

jcb193

I think they would have no issues selling a ton of MF UCS. They now have three more crops of buyers they didn't have then:
1.) People willing to spend $400+ on a lego set.
2.) Completists
3.) Armchair lego investors assuming that lightning will strike twice.

MF was a perfect storm. A limited release. A new price point that was scary for many. A low print run. And it came at a time at a time before most lego investors were investors.

Would love to see a chrome Amidala ship.

Bandit

Pitfall69 said:

I need to find the B-Wing thread and read through it and laugh at all the pro B-Wing comments...lol.

Heh. FWIW, I love the b-wing. I never would have imagined it would (apparently) have sold so poorly. I'm now quite concerned about the future of the UCS line (as far as what *I* want to see out of it).

Legofanscott

Pitfall69 said:

^How about just a Lego bust ;) Yeah, a Slave 1 is a must have. Although, we are talking about OT. Is there any ships from Episodes 1-3 that would make stunning UCS sets?

venator star destroyer :)

LegoFanTexas

^ That is nice, much nicer than the SSD, I'd buy that model for $400.

Renny

Does that have the same dimensions as the UCS ISD? Looks very nice.

LegoFanTexas

If those tiles on the floor are 12x12", then it is smaller than UCS ISD, but that is ok, the "real" ship is smaller than the ISD. :)

Renny

The more I look at it the more I like it. The bits of red really give it a nice contrast against the grey (and it being smaller would make it easier to display).

Pitfall69

Yeah, that's why there are plenty of other models to make before TLG starts remaking other ships; classic/iconic or not.

MorkMan

Are there any other busts besides Darth Vader that are relevant?

jcb193

Emperor? With yellow eyes!

Legofanscott

LegoFanTexas said:

If those tiles on the floor are 12x12", then it is smaller than UCS ISD, but that is ok, the "real" ship is smaller than the ISD. :)

there is a thread on it over on eurobricks. its 112cm long, not sure how long 10030 is though?

think the instructions are available for it aswell

LegoFanTexas

112cm long? Wow, that is longer than I've had expected from the picture.

UCS ISD is 96.5cm long

Legofanscott

More pics here

brickshelf.com/cgi-bin/gallery.cgi?f=404881

Legofanscott

i think that part that sticks out at the back and the engines add a fair few cm's to the length, and would be fairly short if you took them away.

(hope im not sending this thread too off topic)

samiam391

Legofanscott said:

i think that part that sticks out at the back and the engines add a fair few cm's to the length, and would be fairly short if you took them away.

(hope im not sending this thread too off topic)

It's brickset, so it's impossible to throw any thread too off topic :o)

Gavin83

I actually really want this set for myself. I was planning on buying in on ebay/bricklink but I think I'll hold off. I'm fairly certain that the UCS MF will be remade by TLG at some point in the next few years so why pay a massive premium when I can just buy the new one at RRP? They've already shown they're willing to remake UCS models and the MF is such an iconic ship (probably more so than the X-wing) that it seems natural to make this the next rehash.

For this reason I think investing in this set now is a terrible idea, a newly released model will clearly devalue the original, although it will always be desirable. I also can't be the only person thinking this way.

monkeyhanger

I think a reimagined or rereleased as-is UCS MF is at least 5 years off (10th anniversary edition of the set?). They made the gap between X-wing 1 and 2 13 years. I think when we see enthusiast sites like ours we imagine tens of thousands of people out there with the same desire for high end expensive Lego sets as we have who are willing to pay at least £500/$700 for one right now. I really don't think that is the case only 4 years after you could last get a hold of one at retail prices.

Bumblepants

If the upcoming Ewok Village mega-playset does really well (and/or even the Tower of Orthanc for that matter) we could see several more 10xxx structure/scenery sets in the Star Wars universe spreading out the rehashs of ships further. Hopefully we will get the AT-AT and Slave 1 etc quickly before the new films fill the product line up. If/when they do make a new Falcon, it will probably be re-branded with the new films (if it appears) or with the Han Solo solo film. I am guessing they will trim it down from 5000 parts as well to keep the price tag in check.

Legofanscott

monkeyhanger said:

I think a reimagined or rereleased as-is UCS MF is at least 5 years off (10th anniversary edition of the set?). They made the gap between X-wing 1 and 2 13 years. I think when we see enthusiast sites like ours we imagine tens of thousands of people out there with the same desire for high end expensive Lego sets as we have who are willing to pay at least £500/$700 for one right now. I really don't think that is the case only 4 years after you could last get a hold of one at retail prices.

10030 is alot more dated than the falcon, i think that one deserves a re-issue more than the millenium falcon

monkeyhanger

Would 10030 get redone with the SSD still around, or so soon after it goes? Get the undone sets done first please (AT-AT UCS as good as Cavegod's).

mathew

They really need the AT-AT back. I (and many others) missed out on the last one. I don't even care if it's UCS. What good is having the snowspeeder without the AT-AT.

jcb193

I think the old motorized ATAT was pretty sweet. Probably my favorite build yet, and its certainly affordable.