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Comments
A couple things can happen with this set. One, it plateaus like every other LEGO set and slowly drops off in value over time. Two, LEGO releases a new version of the set and the price tanks or three, the new movies stimulate interest in the set and ship and the price explodes or at the very least continues its upward trajectory. Take your pick. These are the types of discussions we have on a daily basis on the Brickpicker site. It's a relaxed atmosphere and members hear all sorts of options on investing in LEGO sets. As for your other comment, it is true we base our data on eBay sales, but they far outsell any other marketplace. While it is also true some rare sets are hard to get data for, the majority of LEGO collectors and investors own newer sets, so the most popular set data is available. We are also adding Terepeak data from the UK, Germany and Australia and nobody offers that option. Thanks for the chance to reply.
To answer Pacific493. I agree, right now its showing sold data from just ebay, that is really all that is available for us to post. We can not obtain sold data from Amazon, but we do display the price trends from camelcamelcamel that are like the Amazon trends you see here on Brickset. I have written Eric at Bricklink to post their data too, but they are too busy working on their issues and redesign, but stated they would look again at the possibilities in the future. But that can be a long way off. We just announced on our site recently that we will launching our own marketplace, called Brick Classifieds. As our site has grown, it has been a non stop request to buy/sell/trade with other Brickpicker members. I will then be able to add these figures into our price guide as well.
Between Brick Classifieds and including data from other local markets (UK, Germany and Australia), our data should improve and be more valuable for more people moving forward. The site is only 1.5 years old, please allow it to mature. Brickset is a masterpiece and Huw as been fine tuning it for 15 years. That's why it is so great.
I've already reinvested by Falcon profit!
I imagine 99.9% of the people who are still buying the sealed ones are investors who never intend on opening it.
The other exceptions such as collectors and AFOLS are also probably doing the same, they might intend to open it once it arrives but not many people can stomach the instant drop in value once that seal is broken so they just go and buy a used one off ebay.
IMO at the moment i really only think there are a small handful that are actually still being opened.
Too much risk in my opinion.
The system scale version is playable, has an interior, and is meant for kids to have fun with. It isn't accurate to scale, but it is close enough.
However, I do agree that UCS Falcon will be done again. Since the die has been cast with UCS X-Wing being redone, it is only a matter of time.
Another thing to think about is how the current crop of UCS is performing on store shelves. While fans and collectors clamor for Lego to "fill out" the spectrum of ships not produced yet - Awing/Slave 1/AT-AT, the Bwing had to discounted 50% to unload its production run.
This would make me prefer to re-issue a UCS that is guaranteed to sell a limited 10,000 to 15,000 run at $549.99 vs clogging up my distribution channels with 35,000 sets that have to be liquidated and shipped free at $99.
I'd love to travel into the future, say 10-15 years from now to see whats been released and what the post EOL market will be like then.
A few uncovered calls/puts, and I'll retire. :)
Regarding expanding the line, I don't think the B-Wing does a very good job of showing what an expanded line could do. The AT-AT Walker was a major vehicle in ESB that many people remember, it did something, shot at things, was destroyed and then destroyed the shield. It should do MUCH better than the B-Wing, which did nothing in the movies except fly across the screen for a few seconds and never fired its blasters once.
Slave 1 also should do well, it is in multiple movies and actually does stuff in the new movies.
The A-Wing? Less so, we need a UCS TIE Fighter before we need an A-Wing.
I can only assume the busts didn't sell well, but without trying a Darth Vader bust, that seems like a heck of a conclusion to reach. Who wouldn't stick one of those on their desk or shelf?
if the Ewok village rumor turns out to be true, I wouldn't be sad to see TLG continue the "really large playset" idea. First the DS, then the village, then the next logical choice would be cloud city
1.) People willing to spend $400+ on a lego set.
2.) Completists
3.) Armchair lego investors assuming that lightning will strike twice.
MF was a perfect storm. A limited release. A new price point that was scary for many. A low print run. And it came at a time at a time before most lego investors were investors.
Would love to see a chrome Amidala ship.
think the instructions are available for it aswell
UCS ISD is 96.5cm long
brickshelf.com/cgi-bin/gallery.cgi?f=404881
(hope im not sending this thread too off topic)
For this reason I think investing in this set now is a terrible idea, a newly released model will clearly devalue the original, although it will always be desirable. I also can't be the only person thinking this way.