UCS Falcon 10179 still a good investment?

Yellowcastle

This discussion was created from comments split from: May the 4th.

Zacherano

If you take a look on sites where people are selling 10179, you'll notice that it is the most expensive Lego set on the aftermarket, and not just because it cost the most money ($500 USD, the same price as the Taj Mahal). The set has jumped to multiple times its MSRP and is still highly desirable. I don't believe that the only people buying it are AFOLs, either. I imagine that those who can afford to spend over $1K on a Lego set enjoy having the Falcon as a prime display piece.

I learned some of this information from a Lego investing site and community, Brickpicker.com. Brickset should consider promoting it if the admins have not done so already and I missed it. I imagine that plenty of user overlap exists....

Bandit

Zacherano said:

I learned some of this information from a Lego investing site and community, Brickpicker.com. Brickset should consider promoting it if the admins have not done so already and I missed it. I imagine that plenty of user overlap exists....

Your post made no sense, kind of like every post on the brickpicker forums. People are here because they're into Lego, not because they're trying to make a quick buck. Brickpicker can only dream of ever having as good a community.

MathBuilder

Well said Bandit. If there is one LEGO related site in the wide web that I don't like it has to be the picker site. I spend (waste...) a lot of time reading LEGO forums but thankfully I did not even know the brickpicker thing had a forum.

Huw

We have good relations with the team at BrickPicker but deliberately don't promote the site because it directly competes for Brickset's main source of affiliate revenue: eBay.

Phonebooth

#10179 a good investment opportunity? In other news, the sky is blue and grass is green.

Bumblepants

And now for yesterdays weather!

LegoFanTexas

And last week's winning lotto numbers!

Pitfall69

^Maybe he is talking about even buying one now would be a good investment??? Otherwise, he's been under a rock for a few years.

TheLoneTensor

Not quite sure why this discussion was split out instead of killed. It is the same to me as "I made $5000 last month from home here's a site to tell you how"

Regardless of relations with any site this comment was clearly a spam advertisement.

Pitfall69

That's what I thought, but @Huw is probably giving the thread a chance and see where it goes. I don't see it going anywhere.

y2josh

tensor said:

Not quite sure why this discussion was split out instead of killed. It is the same to me as "I made $5000 last month from home here's a site to tell you how"

Regardless of relations with any site this comment was clearly a spam advertisement.

The problem was @Zacherano was referring to comments made on page one of the original thread when we were well into page five at that point. So I agree that this shouldn't have been split, but not for the same reasons, as I don't believe this was actually spam, so much as someone reading only a small part of the thread and the original line of thought being too far gone to provide any context.

Zacherano

I am so sorry for any confusion I may have caused! My comment was most certainly not a spam advertisement. I am a fellow lover of Lego for its intrinsic beauty, but I noticed that no one seemed to be discussing the investment value and I was trying to help the person who started the thread. Yes, I am a Brickpicker user, but I don't idolize it in any way; frankly, I spend a significantly greater portion of my time on Brickset and perhaps look at Brickpicker once a month. Please don't take my comments the wrong way.

I would also like to add that I was aware of the value of #10179 from its release and I am not intending to promote anything. The comments here reflect a high amount of animosity and frustration towards me, an individual with perfectly positive intentions. Thanks to @y2josh for clarifying my error.

LegoFanTexas

^ What is left to discuss on 10179? That ship has sailed... Go over to the reselling/retirement monster thread and read up on Fire Brigade and Death Star! :)

10179 was a more interesting subject 2 years ago when it was 9 months post retirement and in the $1,000 price range, today at $3,000 it has seen the bulk of its run.

dougts

Zacherano said:

but I noticed that no one seemed to be discussing the investment value and I was trying to help the person who started the thread.

clearly you haven't looked around long enough before coming to this conclusion:
http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/1958/predictions-on-discontinuing-sets-and-their-secondary-market-value#latest

Zacherano

@dougts - I meant on that particular thread. I acknowledge that the post may have been superfluous. No need to attack me.

TheLoneTensor

Zacherano said:

I was trying to help the person who started the thread.

Uh...you started the thread.

Look, if you're genuine and sincere, and this was a mistake or miscommunication, I suggest you just let this thread die out and move on.

sidersdd

tensor said:

Zacherano said:

I was trying to help the person who started the thread.

Uh...you started the thread.

Actually his comments were originally on the May the 4th thread, before being split to here.

TheLoneTensor

I know, but this comment had absolutely nothing to do with the original thread it was in, so this little spur was his own creation.

Brickarmor

Zacherano said:

The comments here reflect a high amount of animosity and frustration towards me, an individual with perfectly positive intentions. Thanks to @y2josh for clarifying my error.

I just want to add that I think the antipathy expressed by some is toward the site you mentioned, not you as an individual.

LegoFanTexas

^ I second this

samiam391

I think, in any case, that any more comments directed towards the OP or the topic in journal, are unnecessary.

Haven't we already clarified enough that the topic is irrelevant, and that the OP made a simple mistake?

Lets move on, and save our time, and our words :o)

dougts

Zacherano said:

@dougts - I meant on that particular thread. I acknowledge that the post may have been superfluous. No need to attack me.

I wasn't trying to attack you, and I apologize if it came across that way. The quote in question seemed to imply a lack of knowledge of these forums, which I was trying to help correct.

thread-splitting sometimes has it's downsides when context is lost, which I think led to a lot of confusion and misunderstanding all around in this case.

margot

Zacherano said:

I am so sorry for any confusion I may have caused! My comment was most certainly not a spam advertisement. I am a fellow lover of Lego for its intrinsic beauty, but I noticed that no one seemed to be discussing the investment value and I was trying to help the person who started the thread.

Well that's weird because I started the thread and I don't invest in Lego so not sure where you were going with that. No worries in any case...

Yellowcastle

It's difficult to bring over context during a thread split when there was no context with which to begin. Of course, the thread had already been hijacked over an aftermarket wager. ;o)

Pitfall69

^aren't they all eventually?

y2josh

Yellowcastle said:

It's difficult to bring over context during a thread split when there was no context with which to begin. Of course, the thread had already been hijacked over an aftermarket wager. ;o)

This is the same thread that originally contained three pages of 'Red-such-and-such standing by' posts, right? :D

Yellowcastle

^ I have no recollection of such activities. ;o)

Zacherano

As I recall, @margot was querying about why #10179 is such a big deal, and I was simply providing an idea regarding the set. The idea itself does not necessarily reflect my own viewpoint. I am not even selling the set (or any others) myself at this time. I again apologize for any offense I may have caused to anyone reading my words, as well as the time that others have spent in unnecessary feuds I may or may not have sparked. Hopefully, my post at this moment will mark the end of any sort of conflagration, though the debate does seem good-spirited to me, for the most part.

samiam391

@Zacherano- There is no need to apologize. It is just a simple misunderstanding, and shouldn't be made into anything more.

I think most of the "debate" and comments came from the fact that the topic in general has been beaten to death. Thus, people were surprised by the fact someone mentioned such a, in their opinion, obvious comment. While also, seemingly, attempting too advertise and promote brickpicker.com.

If you inferred that someone had a question regarding the topic, than there is no reason you shouldn't try too be helpful. Doing what any good brickset member would do.

You did the right thing, even if it was a mistake... so don't feel guilty in the slightest! :o)

TheLoneTensor

This was all one big April Fool's joke, right?

samiam391

tensor said:

This was all one big April Fool's joke, right?

Definitely not. On April Fool's day, we're all 100% honest on here.

MorkMan

I'm going to resurrect this thread. @DarthTexas...

LegoFanTexas said:

^ What is left to discuss on 10179? That ship has sailed... Go over to the reselling/retirement monster thread and read up on Fire Brigade and Death Star! :)

10179 was a more interesting subject 2 years ago when it was 9 months post retirement and in the $1,000 price range, today at $3,000 it has seen the bulk of its run.

You don't think that even at $2,500+ it is an investment that's worth it? It won't have a 300% rate of return on a $1K investment, but it should still appreciate well enough.
I do think that sinking in a few grand to make a few hundred is still not a bad deal. Better than sinking hundreds and making tens. Or no? Either way, it should appreciate, IMHO.

111ins

has anyone looked at the cost benefit of getting one of the acrylic cases and having the set (10179) graded? I picked one up after Christmas and it is still sealed in the packing box and is a first edition. Part of my concern is that you have to ship them the set, right? Would not want to have it trashed or disappear in the mail, even if insured etc.
Thoughts?

TheLoneTensor

MorkMan said:

I'm going to resurrect this thread. @DarthTexas...

LegoFanTexas said:

^ What is left to discuss on 10179? That ship has sailed... Go over to the reselling/retirement monster thread and read up on Fire Brigade and Death Star! :)

10179 was a more interesting subject 2 years ago when it was 9 months post retirement and in the $1,000 price range, today at $3,000 it has seen the bulk of its run.

You don't think that even at $2,500+ it is an investment that's worth it? It won't have a 300% rate of return on a $1K investment, but it should still appreciate well enough.
I do think that sinking in a few grand to make a few hundred is still not a bad deal. Better than sinking hundreds and making tens. Or no? Either way, it should appreciate, IMHO.

I can't think of anything I would avoid more than 10179 at current market prices. The two main reasons would be:

a) I feel it's overvalued for everyone except for a very select few, and that window is closing more every day. As such, when the buyers dry up, the value will go *pop*

b) It's only one set, which does not give you any level of diversification risk protection for your investment

I feel there are much, MUCH better items to invest in Lego besides this.

Of course, I could be completely wrong, and have been before.

dougts

MorkMan said:

You don't think that even at $2,500+ it is an investment that's worth it? It won't have a 300% rate of return on a $1K investment, but it should still appreciate well enough.
I do think that sinking in a few grand to make a few hundred is still not a bad deal. Better than sinking hundreds and making tens. Or no? Either way, it should appreciate, IMHO.

I'll bite. Even in the realm of LEGO, I think there are far better ways to put $2500 to use. How much more growth does 10179 have? You can pretty easily double your money, so unless you think 10179 is going to head north of $5000, it's a losing proposition. Not to mention, that is ONE item to ship/insure. yes, the labor is much less, but if it disappears, gets damaged, or whatever in the meantime or in transit to a buyer, you lose ALL your investment, as opposed to 5% to 10% if you spread that same $2500 around to 10 to 20 different sets, and lose one.

Bandit

MorkMan said:

I'm going to resurrect this thread. @DarthTexas...
You don't think that even at $2,500+ it is an investment that's worth it? It won't have a 300% rate of return on a $1K investment, but it should still appreciate well enough.
I do think that sinking in a few grand to make a few hundred is still not a bad deal. Better than sinking hundreds and making tens. Or no? Either way, it should appreciate, IMHO.

If I'm going to sink a few grand into something, I'm going to plan on making a few grand. Why would I do that to make a few hundred? That is a terrible rate of return.

Renny

Just my opinion but the ship has long sailed on the 10179 as an investment. I bought a 1st edition at $1900 a while back and sold it for a little over $3000 (as an expensive experiment). Would I do it again at the current prices? No. While I see it continuing to rise in value, I see it happening very slowly and to a decreasing market who can afford it.

I would rather use that $2500 or so to buy up a bunch of sets like the Haunted House, Horizon Express, Winter Cottage, Tower Bridge, etc.

Pitfall69

I agree.

Pitfall69

^I was on board with buying one for $2,000 and selling for $3,000. @Renny stepped up to the plate and proved me right, but that was several months ago and at the current prices, I wouldnt risk investing $2,500 now.

Zacherano

I personally would not invest in #10179 at current prices. I would stick to buying current sets such as those listed by @Renny.

pillpod

Heck, you could probably buy a bunch of Tower Bridges and Fire Brigades with $2500 and make more money with less risk.

Pitfall69

^You did not just say Fire Brigade? That and DS should never be mentioned again ;)

Pacific493

Putting money into 10179 right now would be incredibly stupid IMHO. Maybe it will pay off, maybe not, but with folks like Brickpicker pushing the continuing viability of the set as an investment vehicle and the limited number of people who can actually afford to drop that kind of cash on a set that would be used as a toy, the MF is a set that IMHO is primed for a pricing bubble and is way too risky to gamble on these days.

MorkMan

I see a consensus here. The point about diversification is well made. I do believe there is going to be a ceiling at some point for the MF, and we do not seem to be far away from it. Thanks for the responses.

evileddie1313

Bandit said:

Zacherano said:

I learned some of this information from a Lego investing site and community, Brickpicker.com. Brickset should consider promoting it if the admins have not done so already and I missed it. I imagine that plenty of user overlap exists....

Your post made no sense, kind of like every post on the brickpicker forums. People are here because they're into Lego, not because they're trying to make a quick buck. Brickpicker can only dream of ever having as good a community.

As the co-creator of the Brickpicker site I am very protective of it. My brother Jeff and I always appreciate any time we can have the site discussed on these wonderful forums. I have great respect for Huw, Dr.Dave and all the moderators on this site. You all do a wonderful job and my brother and I can only hope that one day we can reach the popularity of this site. I don't expect Huw to promote us because we are indeed competitors for affiliate advertising, but that does not mean we don't respect one another. I know how much work goes into the Brickset site and use it quite a bit myself.

That being said, we are not trying to be Brickset. We are a LEGO price guide that also talks about LEGO investment. We love LEGO bricks, but we also love discussing ways to make money from them. We will be adding eBay Terapeak data for the UK, Australia and Germany next month so we can give more accurate prices for those and surrounding countries. As for the forums on our site, we are a work in progress and the site is growing daily, with all types of people and intellects. No, we are not as mature as this forum is, nor do we have the amount of quality posters this forum has, but we are hoping that one day, more quality conversations will find their way to our forums. Just as I read and participate in these forums from time to time, it is quite possible for Brickset members to find a topic or two that tickles their fancy on our site. Thanks for your time...

evileddie1313

Pacific493 said:

Putting money into 10179 right now would be incredibly stupid IMHO. Maybe it will pay off, maybe not, but with folks like Brickpicker pushing the continuing viability of the set as an investment vehicle and the limited number of people who can actually afford to drop that kind of cash on a set that would be used as a toy, the MF is a set that IMHO is primed for a pricing bubble and is way too risky to gamble on these days.

As for the topic of investing in a $2500 10179, I can make a case either way, but the continued steady growth has to be considered. There is no way to tell where the set will plateau. For people to say it has peaked is just speculation. We discuss topics like this on the site and don't tell people to invest $2500 in a set, but one can make a case for it. Many of the same people saying this set is maxing out at $2500 are the same people who said it maxed out at $1000...or $1500...or $2000. Personally, at $2500, I would diversify as well, but I did bid on numerous 10179 auctions around the $1500-$1750 price point.

Redbullgivesuwind

I have just started using brickpicker amd while I can understand the accusations that its all about money (the forums arent great). However I must say its functions are quiet useful. Especially in giving me a running value of my collection. Which is great for insurance and so if the worst happens *touches wood* I know what I need to do to get hold of it. It is one of the betterlego websites out there.

Pacific493

evileddie1313 said:

Pacific493 said:

Putting money into 10179 right now would be incredibly stupid IMHO. Maybe it will pay off, maybe not, but with folks like Brickpicker pushing the continuing viability of the set as an investment vehicle and the limited number of people who can actually afford to drop that kind of cash on a set that would be used as a toy, the MF is a set that IMHO is primed for a pricing bubble and is way too risky to gamble on these days.

As for the topic of investing in a $2500 10179, I can make a case either way, but the continued steady growth has to be considered. There is no way to tell where the set will plateau. For people to say it has peaked is just speculation. We discuss topics like this on the site and don't tell people to invest $2500 in a set, but one can make a case for it. Many of the same people saying this set is maxing out at $2500 are the same people who said it maxed out at $1000...or $1500...or $2000. Personally, at $2500, I would diversify as well, but I did bid on numerous 10179 auctions around the $1500-$1750 price point.

I agree that there is no way to tell where the set will plateau and it might continue to rise and rise and rise, but saying that its investment potential should be considered simply because it is rising in value is reckless advice IMHO. Unless there is evidence that the continuing rise in value reflects organic growth in the demand for the set (i.e., non-investor driven), this is a set that screams pricing bubble to me because I find it hard to believe (and have seen no evidence to suggest) that there are non-investors out there who passed at $1,000, $1,500, $2,000, and $2,500, but decided to buy in at $3,000, or that there are a sufficient number of folks who are coming of out their dark ages and are willing to drop $3k+ on a single set. If the continuing rise in the set's price is a reflection of investor-driven demand, then buying in at any price right now would be way too risky to make any good sense.

Pacific493

Redbullgivesuwind said:

I have just started using brickpicker amd while I can understand the accusations that its all about money (the forums arent great). However I must say its functions are quiet useful. Especially in giving me a running value of my collection. Which is great for insurance and so if the worst happens *touches wood* I know what I need to do to get hold of it. It is one of the betterlego websites out there.

One thing to keep in mind in terms of using Brickpicker to establish a value of your sets for insurance purposes is that it bases all of its price information on sales made on Ebay. While this will be fairly reflective of fair market value for newer sets or sets that have a higher volume of sales, it is completely unreliable for establishing the value of sets that change hands infrequently. If you have sets that are rarer or older, I wouldn't put a high degree of faith in the prices reflected on Brickpicker.

legomatt

Not wishing to derail the thread, but I've never heard of Brickpicker.

Is it not a site discussing the many strategies available for extracting Lego pieces from the noses of children?
:oD